F2A and Recent Visa Bulletin don't understand????

[apple21 953]

So how long does it take them to get through a month? Since they are at 01May2012 how long till they get to 29June2012?

No one knows. For the upcoming July 2014 VB seems there's zero movement for F2A.

[aaron2020 11,651]

No one knows. For the upcoming July 2014 VB seems there's zero movement for F2A.

The July 2014 VB is not public. It will be released in 10 days.

How do you know that there will be zero movement in the F2a category?

[vkrishn 97]

No hard data. But seen people quoting from this site (IMO: Its a pretty useless site and copy and paste from other websites).

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/05/july-2014-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

[aaron2020 11,651]

No hard data. But seen people quoting from this site (IMO: Its a pretty useless site and copy and paste from other websites).

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/05/july-2014-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

Just another website with guesses labeled as predictions.

No one can predict future dates for the VB since no one has the raw data that the government has.

[dwheels76 5,468]

Just another website with guesses labeled as predictions.

No one can predict future dates for the VB since no one has the raw data that the government has.

Someone stated earlier about October when new Visa numbers are created. So is this a wait in the queue until October for people?

My friend was asking "why the last few months since Visa Bulletin became current did they just grab all kinds of dates"?. I couldn't answer. I know on my interview thread I had F2A's from different countries get in with all kinds of varies PD dates

[vkrishn 97]

Someone stated earlier about October when new Visa numbers are created. So is this a wait in the queue until October for people?

My friend was asking "why the last few months since Visa Bulletin became current did they just grab all kinds of dates"?. I couldn't answer. I know on my interview thread I had F2A's from different countries get in with all kinds of varies PD dates

As per DOS till July 2013 their take is that the demand for F2A wasn't much so they moved the dates ahead and even made it "current" and then in the Oct 2013 bulletin they set the cut off date as Sep 8th 2013. This is based on "whatever" data they had and now they think they have surpassed the maximum allowable limit which is 7% of per country quota for this category and needs to be retrogressed.

Honestly its a bunch of BS and unless DOS releases demand Data there is no way to predict the movement.

Reminds me of the July 2007 VB fiasco where some idiot who is responsible for updating the VB made EB2 and EB3 categories current for all countries and the next day DOS released another VB with "Unavailable" for EB2 and EB3 for the most backlogged countries. AILA were ready to file lawsuits and DOS caved in and accepted I-485 applications based on the first released VB where EB2 and EB3 were made "current".

[sukhi4498 1]

No hard data. But seen people quoting from this site (IMO: Its a pretty useless site and copy and paste from other websites).

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2014/05/july-2014-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

Hi can you plz tell me the link where i can c abt my GC status.Thanks in advacnce

[dwheels76 5,468]

Hi can you plz tell me the link where i can c abt my GC status.Thanks in advacnce

Go back to the ELIS where yo paid your Visa processing fee

[yannix 24]

 

Someone stated earlier about October when new Visa numbers are created. So is this a wait in the queue until October for people?

My friend was asking "why the last few months since Visa Bulletin became current did they just grab all kinds of dates"?. I couldn't answer. I know on my interview thread I had F2A's from different countries get in with all kinds of varies PD dates

Oct 1st is the new year for DOS (maybe the whole federal government too). So basically that means the yearly allocation of visa is refreshed. Having said that, that doesn't necessarily mean that the visa bulletin will always move forward by a lot.

One of the uses of the visa bulletin is to "estimate" and ensure they have a constant workload throughout the year and the visa numbers doesn't "run out" before the year ends. They move the priority dates around to ensure this. It's not perfect by any means since they rely on data that is at best a couple months delayed.

The NVC doesn't schedule an interview based on the order of PD's. You go through the NVC normally like everyone else (submit docs, pay, wait, get CC etc). When it's time for NVC to schedule an interview, they look at the visa bulletion. If your PD is current, then you get an interview letter. If not, you get put back in the queue. Next month (or batch of interviews) rolls around, the same thing happens. This is why PDs are all over the place in the F2A interview thread.

Hope that helps.

[dwheels76 5,468]

 

Oct 1st is the new year for DOS (maybe the whole federal government too). So basically that means the yearly allocation of visa is refreshed. Having said that, that doesn't necessarily mean that the visa bulletin will always move forward by a lot.

One of the uses of the visa bulletin is to "estimate" and ensure they have a constant workload throughout the year and the visa numbers doesn't "run out" before the year ends. They move the priority dates around to ensure this. It's not perfect by any means since they rely on data that is at best a couple months delayed.

The NVC doesn't schedule an interview based on the order of PD's. You go through the NVC normally like everyone else (submit docs, pay, wait, get CC etc). When it's time for NVC to schedule an interview, they look at the visa bulletion. If your PD is current, then you get an interview letter. If not, you get put back in the queue. Next month (or batch of interviews) rolls around, the same thing happens. This is why PDs are all over the place in the F2A interview thread.

Hope that helps.

Thank you yes this really helps me understand it (is that possible). Thank you again.

[yannix 24]

 

Thank you yes this really helps me understand it (is that possible). Thank you again.

You're welcome. I'm glad to be able to return (albeit a small bit) of the favor and help you have provided in my own visa journey. Thanks too. Feel free to ask if you want more details.

[dwheels76 5,468]

 You're welcome. I'm glad to be able to return (albeit a small bit) of the favor and help you have provided in my own visa journey. Thanks too. Feel free to ask if you want more details.

And am I right that each country gets a certain amount of Visas to use in this category and when used up they have to wait for the next batch in October? I ask because I know some people with case complete dates in April DR and Nigeria and they wanted to know why people with PD's after them got interviews (but from other countries).

[yannix 24]

 

And am I right that each country gets a certain amount of Visas to use in this category and when used up they have to wait for the next batch in October?

There are no numbers of visas allocated per country. It's just one total number for worldwide. However there is a per country cap of 7%. Basically a single country can't consume more than 7% of the total worldwide visas (all categories combined) . If they do, they get capped. For the last decade, these have been the Philippines, Mexico, India and China. That's why they have their own column in the visa bulletin.

As for waiting for the next batch in October. It doesn't quite work that way.

For simplicity's sake, take this example: F2A category has 120 visas allocated for next year, which means in ideal conditions DOS should be issuing 10 per month. They set the bulletin PD on Oct 1 based on whatever projection they have. Let's say by December 31 (for various reasons, high demand or expedites etc), they already used up 50 of the 120. On January, it will be expected that they willl move back the PD of the bulletin (retrogression) to slow/stop the visa issuances. On the contrary, if they only used up 5 of the 120, they will move forward the PD of the bulletin to speed up the issuances or to entice people to file F2A petitions (creating demand). The latter is exactly what happened when the F2A category moved to current in the summer of 2013.

As you can see, it's not really running out of visas but more a projection. DOS wants their workload to be constant every month. They want to make sure they don't run out of visas in the middle of the year nor would they want to end up having leftover visas by year end. That's their goal with the bulletin. In reality it doesn't always work out that way. For one the data they use is months old and there are other factors involved and my explanation left out a lot of these details.

I ask because I know some people with case complete dates in April DR and Nigeria and they wanted to know why people with PD's after them got interviews (but from other countries).

I am not 100% but my guess is the particular embassies you mentioned don't have interview slots open. If the embassy has no slots open, NVC can't schedule anything. It waits and it waits ..... then the visa bulletin retrogresses. At this point, even if the embassy opens up the interview slots, NVC can't schedule it because their PD is not current anymore.

Like I mentioned in the previous post, NVC doesn't use the PD to determine where you are in the queue. My understanding is that it's based on your CC date. They'll only use the PD as the last "check" to determine whether they can issue you an IL or not.

Edited June 3, 2014 by yannix

[franklinadamau 8]

No one knows how it's going to move.... We're all hoping October will bring good news... Hopefully it will come back to September 10th or best case scenario it will become current...

I think the process is fair enough... It's all about demand and supply

 There are no numbers of visas allocated per country. It's just one total number for worldwide. However there is a per country cap of 7%. Basically a single country can't consume more than 7% of the total worldwide visas (all categories combined) . If they do, they get capped. For the last decade, these have been the Philippines, Mexico, India and China. That's why they have their own column in the visa bulletin.

As for waiting for the next batch in October. It doesn't quite work that way.

For simplicity's sake, take this example: F2A category has 120 visas allocated for next year, which means in ideal conditions DOS should be issuing 10 per month. They set the bulletin PD on Oct 1 based on whatever projection they have. Let's say by December 31 (for various reasons, high demand or expedites etc), they already used up 50 of the 120. On January, it will be expected that they willl move back the PD of the bulletin (retrogression) to slow/stop the visa issuances. On the contrary, if they only used up 5 of the 120, they will move forward the PD of the bulletin to speed up the issuances or to entice people to file F2A petitions (creating demand). The latter is exactly what happened when the F2A category moved to current in the summer of 2013.

As you can see, it's not really running out of visas but more a projection. DOS wants their workload to be constant every month. They want to make sure they don't run out of visas in the middle of the year nor would they want to end up having leftover visas by year end. That's their goal with the bulletin. In reality it doesn't always work out that way. For one the data they use is months old and there are other factors involved and my explanation left out a lot of these details.

I am not 100% but my guess is the particular embassies you mentioned don't have interview slots open. If the embassy has no slots open, NVC can't schedule anything. It waits and it waits ..... then the visa bulletin retrogresses. At this point, even if the embassy opens up the interview slots, NVC can't schedule it because their PD is not current anymore.

Like I mentioned in the previous post, NVC doesn't use the PD to determine where you are in the queue. My understanding is that it's based on your CC date. They'll only use the PD as the last "check" to determine whether they can issue you an IL or not.

Well explained.. Thanks

[jojome 0]

hello vj, what i still don't understand after reading all comments here is, how can they be a jump to 2013 September in Oct, wen there are older pds unattended to. or is it possible to issue visa to pds all the way from May 2012 to September 2013 before oct? This whole thing is driving me crazy. how do i get interview letter when my pd is June 29th? and now am reading here that by Oct they'll move all the way to Sept 2013. is it possible i get my interview letter between now and Oct? or keep waiting till God knows when. Please i need answers. dwheels76 thanks for your assistance. still confused though.