CSC Delay Projection Graphs

[I & B 273]

Introduction

This thread is offered as a compliment to my previous CSC data analysis thread. While that thread was dedicated to showing why I-129F processing has been delayed at the CSC (because of DACA), this thread is dedicated to showing you the potential extent of that delay going forward.

All the projections done for this thread were done with the same algorithm used for my delay processing calculator (v. 2.0). If you have not tried that out yet, I suggest you do, as it can give you a more exact sense of where your petition falls on these graphs.

Once you have finished reading these graphs, I hope you will consider contacting your elected representative if you have not yet done so. You can find my guide on how to do so here.

Remember, if you find this or any of those other threads useful, please give a vote so that others can more-easily find the same information. (The churn around here tends to bury things rather quickly.)

The Graphs:

Each graph is based off of a set scenario that I programmed for my calculator spreadsheet. Each scenario relies upon the data published by the USCIS for the months of February, 2011 through January, 2013 (the latest as of the time of this post) and then uses hypothetical competition figures for the months thereafter. Due to the limits of making projections based on the published figures, these projections are limited for NOA1 receipt dates filed before the end of January, 2013.

What each graph shows is how long an I-129F petitioner on a given NOA1 receipt date could expect or can expect to wait for their petition to be completed at the CSC.

Doomsday Scenario

I will start with what I believe is the worst possible scenario--that the USCIS has greatly wound down processing of I-129Fs over the last two months and will keep those processing levels low indefinitely. To estimate this going forward, I assumed that only 200 I-129Fs had been completed in each of the months of February and March, 2013, and that the constant rate of 200 completions per month would continue going forward. The reason I chose the 200 number is because it is low enough to allow that there would still be pending July 18, 2012 petitions as of the time of this post, which is what the USCIS swears is the case. Note that this projection cannot account for the wait times of petitions submitted after September, 2013 because those petitions would not be completed before the end of 2014 and the calculator was not designed to project beyond December, 2014.

As you can see, this would be truly catastrophic for I-129F petitioners. Next, however, I will look at how bad things are under more optimistic scenarios...

Note: all scenarios from here on assume that the January, 2013 rate of 574 completions per month (which is quite low by historical standards) continued through February and March, 2013. I know that is a very optimistic assumption and that the real rate was likely much lower for those months (as I stated above, I believe it was likely closer to 200 per month), but even the optimistic projections are devastating and they should be even more persuasive to elected officials because they are still so bad, despite the optimism.

Scenario 1: Indefinite January, 2013 Pace (574 Completions Per Month)

Scenario 2: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in April, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)

Returning to the median processing rate in April, 2013 would only allow them to lock in a completion time frame of about 8 months for all petitioners going forward.

Scenario 3: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in April, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)

Returning to their fastest pace would help the CSC push processing times down so that were basically back on track by the time they were processing February, 2013 petitioners. But note that this is truly a best case scenario because there is no indication on VJ that April processing has been anything but extremely slow.

The last few scenarios are just variations on scenarios 2 & 3, but with the CSC increasing processing in May or June. Accordingly, they have show similar outcomes, but with bigger delays built in.

Scenario 4: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in May, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)

Scenario 5: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in May, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)

Scenario 6: Return to Median Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in June, 2013 (1968 Completions Per Month)

Scenario 7: Return to Fastest Pre-August, 2012 Pace Starting in June, 2013 (3414 Completions Per Month)

Conclusion:

All of the graphs, as optimistic as they are, show that the CSC has let an extremely abnormal processing backlog for I-129Fs build up. No matter what they do now, I-129F petitioners will continue to suffer for several months to come. But the severity of the possible suffering should behoove them to start processing again as soon as possible. And those of you who filed after the fall of 2012 should look at how you will be affected by this mess going forward. It's going to hurt you too, guaranteed. Time for everyone to start contacting elected officials and the media. We need to fight for ourselves and our loved ones because no on else is going to.

Edited April 13, 2013 by I & B

[I & B 273]

D'oh, I did it again.

Mods: Could someone please change the title to "CSC I-129F Delay Projection Graphs"?

[I & B 273]

Just realized that a small mistake on my part when transposing data caused a small glitch with the graph for scenario 1. It doesn't at all affect the analysis and only slightly alters the underlying figures. Below is the updated graph. You can see, it lacks the small jump in processing time from Oct filers that was visible in the one in the OP. That's the only change.

[Zipline 23]

Good job again I&B. I've been busy working on my Youtube lately and my friend is coming over today to give it a second set of eyes.

[Bayareaguy 156]

The thing is, this processing out of order in high numbers is going to make it difficult to guess what the CSC will do next, or when your application will be processed. Unless they just stop what they are doing, it appears that most Mid-nov-mid Dec applications will be done in a month. So are they also putting resources on older applications, or even taking away resources to get these Nov-Dec applications through? That would not be cool.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Bayareaguy

[I & B 273]

The thing is, this processing out of order in high numbers is going to make it difficult to guess what the CSC will do next, or when your application will be processed. Unless they just stop what they are doing, it appears that most Mid-nov-mid Dec applications will be done in a month. So are they also putting resources on older applications, or even taking away resources to get these Nov-Dec applications through? That would not be cool.

Well, I agree that processing a lot of people out of order would throw my calculations off a bit. But one week does not a trend make. I'll give it another week before I make changes based on the Nov/Dec completions. I'm not underestimating the USCIS's incompetence; I'm merely questioning whether they will commit to completing any I-129Fs at this point.

Good job again I&B. I've been busy working on my Youtube lately and my friend is coming over today to give it a second set of eyes.

You got it. Let me know if you'd like any custom graphs or anything for the video. I didn't include the datatables for these graphs in the calculator spreadsheet because they'd slow it down too much for most users.

[dmck 80]

If you would like some more data to refine your plots a bit, I can tell you there are still 550 cases still open from July 18 - July 31. I am Aug 2, with 26 cases open between us and Aug 1.

[I & B 273]

If you would like some more data to refine your plots a bit, I can tell you there are still 550 cases still open from July 18 - July 31. I am Aug 2, with 26 cases open between us and Aug 1.

That's from the USCIS website WAC numbers? That actually could be really useful if so. I could pin down the March/Feb numbers with a lot more confidence.

[Bayareaguy 156]

Wow, CSC could have finished up more than half of the remaining July cases instead of last weeks Nov-Dec approvals (based on the 5% VJ/USCIS correlation), but they chose not to.

[I & B 273]

Figured I'd throw one more graph out here:

This one is a comparison of VSC and CSC processing times over the past two years with the assumption that neither changes from it's January, 2013 pace. The divergence at the end of the graph is thus a little bit unrealistic because I do not believe that the VSC has sustained it's incredibly high 4400+ January rate, but I think the graph is still interesting to see (1) yes, my completion algorithm works constitently well for both service centers and (2) yes, the VSC has historically had a much worse processing delay than the CSC, with June, 2012 filers being the first batch in a long time to actually fare better at the VSC.

[dmck 80]

Yes these are wac's

[I & B 273]

Yes these are wac's

Ok. I gotta think about exactly how to use that info with my existing stats, but I'm sure I will be able to get some better Feb/March estimates with them at minimum. Thanks again for sharing.

[Rob & Rachel 24]

Great work on these! The more data the better! Thanks!

[Bugs 455]

I just received my NOA1 from the CSC. And I have two questions, regarding this:

1. Why have they been stuck at July 18 for 4 months? Any speculation as to why? Precedence?

2. Why have they been approving November and December applications by the load with the bulk of July-October applicants still waiting? Any speculation for this apparent leapfrog? And precedence of such a leapfrog in the past?

[I & B 273]

I just received my NOA1 from the CSC. And I have two questions, regarding this:

1. Why have they been stuck at July 18 for 4 months? Any speculation as to why? Precedence?

2. Why have they been approving November and December applications by the load with the bulk of July-October applicants still waiting? Any speculation for this apparent leapfrog? And precedence of such a leapfrog in the past?

1. They basically stopped processing I-129Fs in meaningful numbers in November. This wind down was the result of their intense focus on quickly processing DACA petitions. There is past precedent for them slowing down the processing of one petition type temporarily and then ramping up approvals later in order to maintain a completion rate that allows them to keep a set time frame. In fact, mathematically, this approach makes a ton of sense: so long as they can keep the cycle (boom and bust) within the set processing time frames, the boom will cancel out the bust and no petition will be negatively affected; to the contrary, they would be able to apply the efficiency gains of focusing on one petition type towards completing all petitions more quickly using this system. I highly, highly suspect this is exactly what their operating plan is.

But it went terribly wrong this time. The bust far outstripped the boom and thus you see the rise in the average processing time for all I-129Fs. Note how returning to the median processing time only then locks in a steady rate at a longer average delay. That's because the median completion rate, not coincidentally, is roughly equally to the median receipt rate, which is more evidence that the system is designed for balanced booms and busts. Right now, however, we just need a really big boom to drive down the average rate. And, as you can see, even with very large booms over several months, July, August, September, and December filers will not realistically be able to get approved near the 5 month mark (unless, like the recent spate of december petitions, they are processed out of order).

2. According to posts today, the CSC claims that was a mistake. If it was, it was an unbelievably negligent one that demonstrates very poor situational awareness on the part of at least some of the managers and staff. And that actually makes me kinda believe them, haha.

Edited April 17, 2013 by I & B