Ireland: patient is recovering

[mawilson 2,133]

Don’t say it too loudly in Dublin, but Ireland is the poster child for austerity. Nearly a year after the International Monetary Fund and the European Union stumped up a €68bn bail-out, the once critically ill patient is recovering. The Irish economy has grown for two quarters in a row, foreign direct investment continues to flow in, and the black banking hole seems to have a floor. Irish borrowing costs have fallen to pre-bail-out levels. Next on the list, surely, is the Rugby World Cup.

A nation’s borrowing costs are an ephemeral barometer of health, of course. Even with Irish 10-year bonds yielding 7.5 per cent, compared with 14 per cent in mid-July, there is no prospect of (or need for) a quick return to the markets. Sensibly, Ireland is learning to love the bail-out. It has cajoled its creditors into cutting the interest rate on the European portion by nearly 300 basis points, and is now looking to cut the cost of history’s most expensive bank bail-out (50 per cent of output).

Ireland has been a poster child before. Its economic model, of high foreign direct investment lured by an enabling business environment, created enormous wealth. Ireland’s problem was not fiscal at the outset. It was the bank bail-out that pitched it into the abyss. That should make it easier for Ireland to recover.

There are signs that mortgage arrears could be the next flashpoint, and the global slowdown will make Ireland’s fiscal adjustment targets that much harder to meet. But its economy is growing, and exports are around 100 per cent of output, compared to 20 per cent for Greece. Unlike Greece, Ireland’s economic model has not been broken in this crisis. Ireland has the capacity to grow out of its debt burden, which will touch 115 per cent of GDP in 2013 on current projections. Ireland also has the capacity to exceed its IMF targets. This should now be its aim, the sooner to be free of them.

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[mawilson 2,133]

Where are all the Keynesians now? Big Dog et al

[Captain Oates 911]

Lets hope they don't run out of spuds again

Relying on a single product is not smart

At the moment, the small number of Irish left on that island is dependent on being a tax haven for American companies who want to dodge tax back home

That could change in a flash and the hot money would leave

To put it in perspective - population of Eire 4.1 million Population of Yorkshire 5.177 million

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Where are all the Keynesians now? Big Dog et al

Last I checked, Germany (Keynes) looked a lot better than Ireland (Austerity).

[Captain Oates 911]

Last I checked, Germany (Keynes) looked a lot better than Ireland (Austerity).

and Keynes was English - so deserving of being listened to

Germany with its socialist Keynesian economy and free health care (almost) was growing at almost 7% earlier this year. The US struggles for 1 or 2 or anything - and its population lives in fear of health problems.

Perhaps the US could learn from ze Chermans. The Germany stock market index is now my largest investment followed by individual stocks Siemens, Bayer, SAP etc etc

80 million highly skilled Germans can bail the Grecos out with their pocket money, but they are being coy right now.

[mawilson 2,133]

Last I checked, Germany (Keynes) looked a lot better than Ireland (Austerity).

1) Germany didn't need austerity measures, as it was fiscally responsible to begin with.

2) Ireland Q2 GDP growth: 2.1%

Germany Q2 GDP growth: 0.1%

So yes, Keynesian economics works - like a drug. It gives you a good high for a while, but eventually the effect wears off and you come crashing down back to reality.

Edited October 7, 2011 by mawilson

[mawilson 2,133]

[scandal 951]

1) Germany didn't need austerity measures, as it was fiscally responsible to begin with.

2) Ireland Q2 GDP growth: 2.1%

Germany Q2 GDP growth: 0.1%

So yes, Keynesian economics works - like a drug. It gives you a good high for a while, but eventually the effect wears off and you come crashing down back to reality.

Funny, are you arguing that Germany didn't have a stimulus plan at the height of the 2008/09 downturn?

What exactly was this little nugget all about, at the peak of the recession in Jan 2009?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7825513.stm

Germany agrees 50bn euro stimulus

Page last updated at 13:04 GMT, Tuesday, 13 January 2009

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has unveiled an economic stimulus package worth about 50bn euros ($67bn; £45bn) to kick-start Europe's largest economy.

The measures include investments in railways, roads and schools, as well as a number of tax relief initiatives.

It is aimed at helping the country during what some fear could be its worst recession since World War II.

An earlier 23bn-euro plan to stimulate the economy, passed last month, was derided for being too cautious.

"We will do everything possible to make sure Germany not only gets through this crisis but emerges stronger," Ms Merkel said.

[mawilson 2,133]

Funny, are you arguing that Germany didn't have a stimulus plan at the height of the 2008/09 downturn?

I'm not arguing that at all.

[scandal 951]

I'm not arguing that at all.

ah, ok.

So you do like Keynes. That's nice to know.

[mawilson 2,133]

ah, ok.

So you do like Keynes. That's nice to know.

What are you talking about? Germany did have a stimulus plan, and look at them now. Q2 growth of 0.1%.

[Captain Oates 911]

Ireland is so small and insignificant that what happens there has no relevance to the broader picture.

If my cat likes brand X cat food, it doesn't mean all cats will. The sample is too small

I think its the height of irony that Ireland is proclaimed as a shining example by American Industrialist fat cats who hide their money there to cheat the US government of tax revenue.

If the grisly right wing got into power and made it possible for US companies to repatriate their profits with no US tax , as is the proposal, Ireland would collapse within a month

That is the ultimate irony of Eire being declared the poster child of the 'job creators'

[mawilson 2,133]

I think its the height of irony that Ireland is proclaimed as a shining example by American Industrialist fat cats who hide their money there to cheat the US government of tax revenue.

If the grisly right wing got into power and made it possible for US companies to repatriate their profits with no US tax , as is the proposal, Ireland would collapse within a month

Capital flows from countries with high tax rates to countries with low tax rates. Don't blame Ireland for doing the smart thing to attract foreign investment.

Any country would collapse if all foreign capital suddenly left in search of greener pastures.

[Captain Oates 911]

Capital flows from countries with high tax rates to countries with low tax rates. Don't blame Ireland for doing the smart thing to attract foreign investment.

Any country would collapse if all foreign capital suddenly left in search of greener pastures.

It's hot money and it's like having an affair with a beautiful hooker, you can never be sure they are there when you wake up each morning. The admiration of the 'job creators' (Paris Hilton etc) for Ireland is as transient as the US tax rate on repatriated funds.

Flows, flow both ways. It's no way to run a railroad. Before their latest scam, the Irish used to export cattle to the EC and get a subsidy, smuggle em back and export em again for a second subsidy. The cows were getting dizzy and seasick going back and forth. Its a cowboy economy in more ways than one.

They are as capitalistic as Bonny and Clyde with similar morality behind it. They need to get some real industries based on more than creaming off hot money from the larger economies and taking crumbs from the table of US industry.

hum what could they do - I know - potatoes !

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

1) Germany didn't need austerity measures, as it was fiscally responsible to begin with.

2) Ireland Q2 GDP growth: 2.1%

Germany Q2 GDP growth: 0.1%

So yes, Keynesian economics works - like a drug. It gives you a good high for a while, but eventually the effect wears off and you come crashing down back to reality.

Germany's economy was growing quite strongly while Ireland's economy contracted - for several quarters after the global recession. Ireland is going to need many, many quarters of above average growth just to catch up. True, the 2011 projected growth rate for Germany has been reduced from 3.2% to 2.8%. That's still quite a bit stronger than what Ireland is going to pull off for the year. Don't even want to talk about what austerity and the resulting delayed economic growth did to Ireland's public finances - or it's infrastructure. That will take many, meany years to correct. And it will correct only if Ireland manages to re-attract all the talent that has left because of the austerity. They've had some significant brain-drain going on for a few years now. That's not going to be easy to correct and austerity measures aren't helping in that effort. When I talk to the part of my team that's located in Dublin, they're much less excited about the outlook of the country than you are. And they're not just reading about but actually living the "austerity dream".