Analysis of CSC I-130 Approval Times Using VJ Timeline Data

[fermat 32]

I downloaded data from the VJ Timeline Search function: IR-1/CR-1 Visas from CSC with NOA1 dates between 01-16-2008 and 01-16-2011. Using records with NOA2 dates only, I made the following graphs of the time from NOA1 to NOA2 for n=1780 records.

Quantiles:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0 38 57 71 86 101 115 127 149 171 655

The hazard function is interpreted as the instantaneous rate at which approval occurs for petitions that are unapproved at a given time. The maximum of the hazard function occurs at 190 days, meaning that from Day 0 to Day 190, the chance of receiving an approval letter on any given day is greater than the chance on every day before it. After Day 190 the chance of being approved is less than on the previous day. I would expect a hazard function that is all the time increasing, meaning the older your NOA1 date, the higher your chance of being approved on that particular day. This drop-off could indicate that cases older than 190 days are systematically given less attention from USCIS than younger ones in order to minimize new service requests, customer complains, and congressional inquiries. Many of us transfered from TSC to CSC are now past 180 days and are in the 93rd percentile. I removed TSC and VSC because the data for TSC was sparse and for VSC was older. It seems that CSC is the primary processor of I-130 petitions recently so their data was most relevant to the present situation. One limitation of the data is that there is no information of RFE status or dates, aside from the comments section of the VJ Timeline.

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