Feb 2011 visa bulletin

[visabulletin 3]

Status changed to coming soon. Any prediction for F2A? 5 days to go. All the best.

Anyone please explain this in detail.

www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

[KhanI 2]

so what does the FEB VISA BULLITEN SAY???

[Miami_Boy 9]

Status changed to coming soon. Any prediction for F2A? 5 days to go. All the best.

Anyone please explain this in detail.

www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

Well, All I can assume that If DOS needs money again, they will move the PD forward and couple months later it will get retrogressed. When i looked at waiting list...it looks like 3-5 years to get PD be current or visa issuing Also we knew that USCIS tremendously approving all I-130 application. This will build more on waiting list. So, I am kinda confused or either can it go backward again?

The following figures have been compiled from the NVC report submitted to the Department on November 1, 2010, and show the number of immigrant visa applicants on the waiting list in the various preferences and subcategories subject to numerical limit. All figures reflect persons registered under each respective numerical limitation, i.e., the totals represent not only principal applicants or petition beneficiaries, but their spouses and children entitled to derivative status under INA 203(d) as well.

Category FY2009 FY2010 Increase/Decrease

FAMILY FIRST 245,516 271,018 + 25,502 (+10.4%)

2A-Spouses/Children: 324,864 361,038 + 36,174 (+11.1%)

2B- Adult Sons/Daughters: 517,898 552,573 + 34,675 (+6.7%)

FAMILY THIRD 553,280 853,083 +299,803 (+54.2%)

FAMILY FOURTH 1,727,897 2,515,062 +787,165 (+45.6%)

TOTAL 3,369,455 4,552,774 +1,183,319 (+35.1%)

Edited January 5, 2011 by Miami_Boy

[visabulletin 3]

Well, All I can assume that If DOS needs money again, they will move the PD forward and couple months later it will get retrogressed. When i looked at waiting list...it looks like 3-5 years to get PD be current or visa issuing Also we knew that USCIS [/size][/font]tremendously approving all I-130 application. This will build more on waiting list. So, I am kinda confused or either can it go backward again?

Thanks miami boy.

It seems like 2010 files has to wait too long. If we look at the percentage rise from 2009 its 11%. This rise (36174) in application compared to previous year (2009) end up in retrogression.

so waiting time depends on how far away you are from the current cut off dates. I assume some of the 2008 files already got their visa. If not 2009 files too are very far away from the current cut off date.

[visabulletin 3]

so what does the FEB VISA BULLITEN SAY???

Hehe....

Is there any way to know the feb bulletin before they publish. couple of months back somebody cald up NVC operator and got the cut off dates. I remember the cut off date was march 2009. And the following month mumbai consulate also published the dates before NVC.

[Miami_Boy 9]

Well, All I can assume that If DOS needs money again, they will move the PD forward and couple months later it will get retrogressed. When i looked at waiting list...it looks like 3-5 years to get PD be current or visa issuing Also we knew that USCIS [/size][/font]tremendously approving all I-130 application. This will build more on waiting list. So, I am kinda confused or either can it go backward again?

Thanks miami boy.

It seems like 2010 files has to wait too long. If we look at the percentage rise from 2009 its 11%. This rise (36174) in application compared to previous year (2009) end up in retrogression.

so waiting time depends on how far away you are from the current cut off dates. I assume some of the 2008 files already got their visa. If not 2009 files too are very far away from the current cut off date.

Exactly... It was meant according to November 1, 2010 NVC waiting list...I believed more I-130 has been approved last couple of months and which wasn't added at that list...I am also in 2008 visa list, I am not current yet till january Visa bulletin. Lets say internally DOS will finish all 2008 by end of this year. so can we predict 2009 and 2010 PD's where will stand?? Only GOD knows...

*Back in 2007, it happened for employment visa category-3, They are fortunate because they live in USA , got EAD card for work and AP for travel abroad. but their PD never back for current again.

[visabulletin 3]

Please recorrect me if i am wrong

considering 2009 & 2010 only till nov 1 2010.

Pending application 324864+ 361038= 685902

only 88800 visa issued for F2A /year.

685902/88800 = 7.7 year.

so someone who filed on nov 1 2010. they will GET/ ISSUE A VISA after 7.7 year.

CUT OFF DATE CAN MOVE FORWARD, BACKWARD, RETROGRESS DOESNOT MATTER.

ONLY 88800 WILL BE ISSUED A YEAR.

CONSIDERING OTHER FACTORS LIKE naturalisation and other free visa it will be around 7 years.

Again the most affected people will be 2010 because of percentage rise in 2010.

THIS CALCULATION is excluding 2008.Anybody got stastics of 2008? or NVC Already cleared 2008?

[visabulletin 3]

If this calculation is correct someone who filed on nov 2009 will get a visa in 3.6years 324864/88800= 3.65

similarly some one who filed on nov 2010 will get there in 4.06 years. 361038/88800= 4.06

second half will get prolonged. if we combine both 3.65 +4.06 = 7.6 years.

If you are far away from cut off date longer will be waiting period.

[KhanI 2]

so what about me i have been waiting for almost 3 years and still have no INTERVIEW.

Any idea when i will be getting a INTERVIEW. I would have made a quicker INTERVIEW for my wife. BUT MY RFE got me.

so any idea PRIORY DATE IS 08 APRIL. HOW LONG FOR ME :crying:

[RICARDO4EVA2 194]

i can see a bad year but i'm still positiven even going through all this.. my PD is January 3, 2011

[visabulletin 3]

so what about me i have been waiting for almost 3 years and still have no INTERVIEW.

Any idea when i will be getting a INTERVIEW. I would have made a quicker INTERVIEW for my wife. BUT MY RFE got me.

so any idea PRIORY DATE IS 08 APRIL. HOW LONG FOR ME :crying:

Hi khani,

I donot know how they calculate visa availability. This is just a suggestion and I beleive for nation wise there will be subdivision for visa availability so i might be wrong, Honestly i donot know.

Just imagine if majority of these applicants are from over subscribed countries then this is not the right calculation. It depends on how many applicants applied from their own country and how far away from cut off date / how many people ahead of you. April 2008 is very close but to get out from already retrogressed bulletin there will be slight delay may be 2 months.

[visabulletin 3]

2A: About 88,000 visa numbers are expected to be available during FY-2011. The top five

countries with the highest 2A waiting list totals are:

Family 2A Percent of

Preference Category

Country Total Waiting List

Mexico 163,436 45.3%

Dominican Republic 31,883 8.8%

Haiti 16,216 4.5%

Philippines 15,300 4.2%

Cuba 14,909 4.1%

All Others 119,294 33.1%

Total 361,038 100%

[Miami_Boy 9]

If this calculation is correct someone who filed on nov 2009 will get a visa in 3.6years 324864/88800= 3.65

similarly some one who filed on nov 2010 will get there in 4.06 years. 361038/88800= 4.06

second half will get prolonged. if we combine both 3.65 +4.06 = 7.6 years.

If you are far away from cut off date longer will be waiting period.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2011 NUMERICAL LIMIT~~~~~~~~~~~

Preference-----------------Foreign State--------------------------------Worldwide

F1---------------------------- 1,638-------------------------------------------23,400

FX------------------------------------------------------------------------------65,950

F2A---------------------------6,151-------------------------------------------21,984

F2B---------------------------1,838-------------------------------------------26,266

F3-----------------------------1,638-------------------------------------------23,400

F4---------------------------- 4,555-------------------------------------------65,000

Total ----------------------15,820------------------------------------------226,000

Remember FX category, means visa still available for 2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 01APR05 and earlier than 01JAN08.

So 2008 hasn't started yet. Even DOS has NO specific data for upgrader to IR1. I believe DOS hasn't finish 2007 yet.

Based on DOS visa system operation, last visa number has been assigned was 2007, dec 31st.

Here is DOS SYSTEM OPERATION:

If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current". For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply ofnumbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and we have demand for 8,000 applicants, then we would need to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.

[Miami_Boy 9]

i can see a bad year but i'm still positiven even going through all this.. my PD is January 3, 2011

OH boy....Just imagine I am waited for 2 years 10 months and haven't get my PD current yet. Lets pass several months then you'll be very optimistic about your PD. GOOD LUCK!!

[RICARDO4EVA2 194]

Yea.... No other choice. The good thing is that the the applicant just renewed his 10 year visa in july 2010 so he will come/go.