k0nstantin

It looks like the March AOS cases are now running out. Also processing speed has been going up since March. Some back of the envelope calculations show that if USCIS keeps their pace in September, then they'll be approving cases from September 2023 in October 2024, and not in November like VJ predicts. Fingers crossed!

The reality is a bit more nuanced than "processing times have slowed". Like most people here I don't know exactly how USCIS works, but I think I have a pretty good guess: When an I-130 is filed, it is put into one of two queues: queue one for adjustment of status and queue two for consular processing. These are nationwide queues, i.e. it doesn't matter anymore which service center your case is assigned to. When it's your turn, your case gets automatically assigned to the next available agent regardless of where that agent works. So the fact that you're assigned to Texas doesn't mean anything, you'll just get reassigned when it's your turn. Petitions from the AOS queue start to be processed after a couple of months from filing. How long an AOS petition has to wait in the queue seems to be random, but could in fact be determined by USCIS using some characteristics of the petition. On the other hand, the consular processing queue is a true queue: first in - first out. A petition in this queue is never processed before any petition that was filed earlier, including the AOS petitions. Thus any consular processing petition is considered after all of the earlier consular processing petitions, all of the earlier AOS petitions and some of the later AOS petitions. In April of 2024 USCIS increased its filing fee by about $100. This caused a huge spike in the number of applications in March. The number of applications doubled compared to the average. Work on AOS petitions from the March batch has already started, and they are substantially slowing down work on consular petitions. The other reason, although a much less significant one, is prioritization of I-129F (K-1) petitions. These used to take about a year to process in 2023, but now they only take 3-6 months. These are likely prioritized because there are much fewer of them and they are much easier to take under control, which looks good in a report to agency's bosses. This is based on various forum posts and statistics published here.

I haven't heard such advice, but I can see the logic here. Visas are issued for a specific purpose, and if you are getting for example a Hungarian tourist visa it should be (at least primarily) for a trip to Hungary for the purpose of tourism. According to consular bureaucrats if your primary intent is to go to Poland you should get a Polish visa. The fact that you can't get a Polish visa is your problem, not theirs. You should read the list of requirements on the embassy's website, but AFAIK they normally do require a return ticket.

1. There is no difference between CR-1 and K-1 in terms of where the interview is conducted. In both cases your fiancee will have to go to Poland. 2. There is a difference in wait time between I-129F and I-130. You can see the current wait times here and here. The TLDR is 6 months for K-1 and 12 months for CR-1 just for petition approval. Someone here said that the wait time is the same, but it is no longer true. 3. You need to add some time for consular processing - look at user timelines for the Warsaw embassy on this site. Last time I checked it was around 4 months in addition to the petition approval time, but this could have changed. 4. Keep in mind all the things TBoneTX posted above. Your fiancee will be in the US sooner on K-1, but she will get her green card sooner on CR-1.

As far as I know, all Schengen countries require visa applicants to have some amount of money in their bank accounts. This amount will depend on how long the applicant intends to stay in the Schengen area. For someone who's requesting a month-long visa, 6900 euros doesn't sound too outrageous. As to your original question, I believe Hungary is one of the friendliest Schengen countries for Russian citizens. Other relatively friendly countries are Italy and Spain. Poland and Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) are the most hostile and do not issue tourist visas to Russian citizens at all. The post, which was mentioned in this thread, talks about a Belarusian citizen, and the situation is somewhat different for them. Keep in mind, that your fiancee shouldn't fly directly to Poland, because the airline will not let her board the plane to Poland with a Russian passport, even with a valid Schengen visa. She should fly to some other Schengen country first (preferably to the country that issues the visa) and then travel to Poland from there. I believe inside Europe she can travel by plane, because AFAIK they don't check passports for flights within the Schengen area. The ticket to Poland should however be booked separately from the ticket to the transit country. The amount of time it takes to get a visa can vary, and right now I believe it does take several months.

One more thing: if you go the U4U route, I don't think you should get married before she moves to the US. Even after she moves, it's probably best to wait at least 3 months before getting married, otherwise you may have problems with adjustment of status. USCIS really does not like when you use a program intended for one thing to do another thing. The 3-month rule is not a hard rule AFAIK, and you could still successfully adjust status even if you don't wait 3 months, but in this case you'll certainly need a lawyer.

The best answer for you is probably "get an immigration lawyer". As far as I know, it's best not to mention that she's your girlfriend. They may think that the true reason she's coming to the US is to get married to you, which is not what U4U is for, so they may deny the petition. As to the last question, you'll need to explain how she's been affected by the war. IIRC she has to be at least displaced to be eligible. So if she lives exactly where she used to live before the war and it's relatively far from the front line, then I don't think she'll get approved. Again, it's probably best if you ask an immigration lawyer. Even though I once helped to prepare a successful U4U petition, I can't consider myself an expert in this.

If one of them works for a US company, they could look into getting an EB-3 visa (or EB-2, or EB-1, if they qualify). In any case, talking to an immigration lawyer would probably be more helpful than asking here.

In that case please count from the first time it went to "longer than expected".

The myUSCIS estimated time doesn't mean much, but is it pure noise or there's some signal in it? Please vote in the poll and let's find out.

I was hoping to see some useful signal in this estimate, but judging by what you are saying they may just be using a random number generator 🙃 I guess we'll wait and see.

What's the estimated wait time MyUSCIS gives you?

Instead of going the Mexico route you might want to consider getting married online through the Utah county process: https://www.utahcounty.gov/dept/clerk/marriage/onlinemarriage.html The advantage is that you get a US marriage certificate, which is instantly verifiable and doesn't need a translation or an apostille. The disadvantage is that you don't get a "real" wedding, which may be a deal-breaker for some people. One important thing to remember with online marriages is that you are required to consummate the marriage after the ceremony but before filing I-130. In practice this means that you are required to provide evidence that you and your spouse were in the same location during or after the ceremony.