FromMexico W/Love

It could be a number of things, but it is just one day so no biggie imo. Also, we have to remember that in the US Government, Federal Employees have to do ALOT of mandatory trainings, seminars, and briefings WAY MORE than the average workplace, so this dip could be a number of things outside of a snow storm lol. Also let's not forget that the day after the snow storm they processed 350+ cases the next day.

Probably just a way to game the numbers. Also LOL at the system auto hiding C.R.A.P lol

I wonder what the reasoning is behind the moving on at ~70%. Are the cases that are "left behind" difficult for some reason and need a different level of investigation and scrutiny? Or is it just a ####### shoot? Who knows..

I think it is the reverse. September 2022 filers are looking at ~13/14 months total, but those prior were more in line with ~15/16 months and those after are ~12/13 months.

You're so far into it! You applied April 2022! If you applied CR1 now you are looking at probably 18 more months of waiting apart from each other (I don't know much about the CR1 timeline compared to K1 lol), so essentially it boils down to would you rather be apart for another year and a half or not work in the US for 6 months? Also you can't forget that you will be making new friends and family in the US too, but you have to do what you think it right.

A little less than that. The good news is they "stopped the bleeding" and the wait times are not continuing to balloon. But someone filing today should expect a ~12 month wait time for their NOA2. I could see them trying to game the numbers and by October say, someone filling today has an 80% estimated wait time of 8 months or something along those lines. Also, I just looked at the numbers, from Q4 2020 back to Q1 2013, the average quarterly backlog was 21,161 with an average of 934 cases processed per week which had the processing time at just under 6 months. I pulled all the numbers off of the quarterly forms for that data. In 2013/2014 USCIS processed 18k cases a quarter to reduce the backlog. They were at like 34k cases and dropped it to 13k. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

Yeah based on when they processed in ~4 months, the standing backlog was 17-23k.

To keep things in perspective because this week was a rollercoaster with the new processing time estimate from USCIS. We are looking at our 4th straight week of processing 1,000+ cases, and 6 of the past 8 weeks they have processed at least 1,000 cases (one of the weeks was a shortened 4 day work week, and the still processed 800 cases)! There were months in 2022 where they only processed 1,200/1,300 cases for the entire month. There is a week to go for the total March numbers, and they are on pace to process ~500 more cases in March than they did in the months of May, June, and July of 2022 COMBINED. Since January, they have processed 10,854 cases! We are sitting at 213/cases a day processed in March! Yes, there is a lot we don't know about USCIS and the black hole of how they do business and why some cases are seemingly being left behind or "ghost cases", but what we do know is that since the new year they are rocking and rolling at a level that is 3-4x more than what they were doing in 2022. Keep the faith!

Beautiful thanks for finding

I think the numbers went up because of what they did in 2021/2022. I don't think the estimate going up impacts what we see on a daily basis. I mean they have processed 3,500 cases so far in March, and they did 3,800 in Feb. But they probably wont report on these numbers for a long time.

That is after NOA2

I think their numbers only go off 80% though.

I think they have to report what has happened and not was is expected to happen based on current processing trends. Like it makes them look bad if they say 12 months for someone filing now, when they have actually processed at the 15/16 month mark.

Who knows how they pull their numbers the might roll based on what has been previously done, and not what they are currently processing at. IDK. I don't care if they put 24 months now becaue we are seeing the cases go through. Eh not really.

I get this feeling that you are just like Elle Woods lol and I mean that in the best way possible!!

They are gonna get close to 5,000 for March. They are already at ~3,100

Exactly, those are legitimate fraud cases that are denied not someone who has an actual relationship. Those aren't denials because they didn't attach a picture of them and the fiancé kissing or a plane ticket, this is someone trying to pull a fast one on USCIS and the US Gov. Ridiculous but true story from my time in the DOS, a "serial marriage and fiancé visa applicant" in a high fraud country actually submitted a video of them and the beneficiary having sex as proof of evidence of the relationship when they received an RFE from a Consulate Officer. The sad part is because they know the law and the rules so well, that they were actually granted a visa and there isn't anything we could have done.

I am super optimistic, but I don't think we see 1,200/week, but I would love to be wrong lol. That would be 5,000/month

Already better than January and its only been 13 business days lol

Our first 1,100+ case week. You could say things are getting serious

LOL I will do it for you, I have no problem taking the fall.

Stop being conservative lol. You know they will hit around 4,700. Also, side note, I think your estimated time is slightly too conservative.

I felt like a crack fien for a second, I was like "IS THERE ANOTHER SPREADSHEET!?!?!?!??!" lol

I'm not seeing Thursday's numbers yet on Obllak's where are you seeing them?