FromMexico W/Love

@Oballak is there a way to run analysis for "Estimated Wait Times" based on 50%, 75%, and 100% of cases completed? i.e. your estimated wait time if you're case is processed within the first 50% of cases, and then 75% and 100%? Right now we are tracking our estimated wait times when 100% of the month is completed, and we can see that is not how USCIS is operating. I know there is difficulty in running this analysis because of accounting for ghost cases and USCIS never getting to 100%. March 2022 filers are showing as waiting ~2 more months from today for their NOA2, when that won't be the reality for the majority of March 2022 filers. Anyone else have any thoughts on updates or improvements that we can make to the spreadsheet?

That is so true people get so worked up over there! My NOA1 is Feb 7th and I just saw a Feb 8th NOA1 get their NOA2 lol...

Same same. That difference is the matter of 1 processing day. We are splitting hairs talking about 242/day vs 250/day.

And they are on pace to do it again in April.

USCIS has already processed more cases in April then they did in January in just 12 business days! They are moving!

Yupp Let's get another week like last week!

How spoiled we have gotten lol I remember in January and we were PRAYING for ~800 cases and now we are like "ehhh you freaking bums" lol

The FB groups are excellent drama. I love to see what all of these people look like too, since there is no more normal "90 Day Fiancé" this is my reality TV lol

Hear, hear.

I can't begin to explain how pumped I am that they hit 250/day for a week. If this becomes their new speed, we all need to reevaluate when we should be expecting our NOA2. This pace (or even close to it) consistently takes about a month off our current projections. If they are processing ~250/day for the rest of this year, that is ~46,000/year. That would put Jan 2023 filers getting their NOA2 ~11 months after NOA1.

Exactly. We see cases that are "left behind" but dont know the reason, USCIS sees the actual details of the case, whatever they may be. It can range from someone with run ins with the police, someone on a watchlist, espionage or an attempt at it, criminal activity, a "visa farmer". I would bet that very few are legitimate couples.

Yupp. I know it is a small sample set, but if they keep this up for April, they are on track for ~5,000 cases.

I see, I see. I didn't start tracking the numbers until mid/late January. Maybe that's why I am optimistic lol and a good luck charm haha

You're referring to a total wait time of 21 months, not for your NOA2 correct?

Officially no, but some people will probably take the day off. It is not a gov holiday.

Yeah, I think they are "touching" the cases Approved, denied, or RFE and then moving on. If you don't get back to them... NEXT! I don't think you have anything to fear

Yeah, I think that is why that 8k figure is really inflated. Some napkin math really quick, take out the ~1,500 ghost cases and ~500 RFEs that are not "active", and you're at 6k for March.

I don't want to say that the backlog is "fake", but I think that USCIS is moving on quickly if they don't hear back from RFEs in a timely manner. So that 8k number, I don't know how much of that are truly "active cases" in the eyes of USCIS, but in my opinion I would probably cut 3k off of what is viewed in front of March and beyond: "Ghost cases" + "nonactive" months. But that is just my two cents.

indeed!!!! I said it last week, if they can hit ~250/day that is 5,250/month in 21 work day months. That speeds up the current estimates by ~3 weeks to a month.

Haha what sucks is that it should have been ~5,000 cases processed, but still a good month. USCIS is also showing glimpses of a gear that I didn't think that they would be able to hit and that is ~240/day. If they hit that, even in 21 work day months they will hit 5,000 cases. Numbers not seen at USCIS since 2013/2014!!

Depends on how they reshuffle headcount, but yeah I doubt we see much difference in the next 6 months.

I think we just miss it, but let's see how tomorrow is... if the next 3 days are ~250 we will be right there!! And then the pessimist in me doesn't think we will hit 5,000 until May, our next 23 work day month.

When you realize that both of the storms that caused a closure of USCIS were on the 27th...