FromMexico W/Love
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Everything posted by FromMexico W/Love
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From what I have seen on VJ for all countries is that 60 day NVC and 40-60 days to schedule the interview is about the norm right now.
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The best thing I have found is finding someone's timeline journey on VJ who is from your country and seeing what their timeline was, that has really helped me for what to potentially expect after NOA2. You can search by timeline and see.
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Are you familiar with the game Price is Right lol, that's a bold move.
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This is crazy! And the this is the first month where we will get to see how much USCIS crushes what they did last year. My question is how much do we think they beat May by compared to what they did last year? Let's play a game Price is Right style: I will start the bidding at 3,948 is how many more cases they will process this May compared to last for a grand total of 5,258 for the month.
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depends on the embassy. They all operate slightly differently. I’d try to get insight from someone who has been through the process at your embassy.
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The backlog being reduced by USCIS right now far outweighs any backlog we have seen at NVC to date.
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I know, I remember the early conversations were like "don't get your hopes up" and "this is an outlier" and "the backlog just isn't getting bigger, we will still be waiting 16 months." And now half of the 2022 cases and all the 2023 cases will be ~12 months.
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It is wild to think about it because there is still a small group of 2021 NOA1s on the FB group that are an angry bunch that still hasn't received their NOA2, but USCIS is ROLLING now. I used to think that 220/day was the maximum range, but they have blown way past that. I am done putting a ceiling on how fast they can go. And with the backlog still at ~45k+ I don't think they will be slowing down anytime soon.
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Yeah that is another factor too! It is just a general rule of thumb though. And some of those embassies that take on other countries cases shifts some as well. Fun fun.
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Here is my insider hack to know if your timeline at the embassy will be long or short without seeing the data, just think of how many people from that country are in the US. If it is not a lot then your wait time will more than likely be shorter, for instance Greece is a short wait time and there are not many Greek immigrants in the US. On the other side, China, Brazil, India, and Mexico will have longer wait times based on the amount of visas that those embassy country teams process. I've even seen examples of K1 interviews happening within a week once it got to the embassy.
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Okay yes, this is what I thought and was alluding to! We have a "working theory" that early month NOA1 dates have a higher probability of getting NOA2 before late month NOA1 dates. This isn't set in stone, but a pattern we have seen a few times.
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I thought we have been seeing a trend where they have been processing cases where NOA1 was received at the beginning of the month recently? was that just a small random sample set that hasn't proven true?
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Basing this off my specific country. You will get yours much early I bet. My country happens to have the most visa cases in the entire world.
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This process sucks the big one. I have been waiting 8 months and I have ~13 more months to go until an interview date at the embassy/consulate, and that is if USCIS keeps processing quickly.
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Lol it is supposed to be apples and oranges
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The big total number might not be there, but April has beaten March by a significant margin when you account for the length of the month. Doesn't make sense to track the monthly numbers because some months are shorter/longer than others. April has processed significantly more cases per day than March 240 to 220. If you take April's average per day and put it in March you have ~5,500 cases processed, if you put March's average per day in April you'd have 4,400 cases processed. All that to Say April > March lol
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I had a feeling this was the case and why I was asking about adding the 50% and 75% mark to the estimates because the spreadsheet shows worst case scenario, and for me and that is early November, but based on how USCIS is operating it might actually be from early September to early November.
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I will trade a ~5 month faster processing from USCIS for a ~1 month processing increase from NVC 10 times out of 10.
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Thats the difficult thing to know. It shows a big majority as being "touched" and as getting a RFE, but that they haven't got the RFER back yet. So did they not get it in the mail? Was it lost? Did they break up? Did USCIS not change the status? Who knows.
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Yeah the number of RFEs without responses to me is mind boggling. I wonder what happens there... I wonder if some people instead of "withdrawing" the case they just let it sit there if they broke up or something... I hope we all get touched soon, in more than one way jajajaja
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Okay that makes sense, and I'm not sure how they count their numbers and it's becoming less importnat since we have so much insight lol maybe even more than them. I bet Obllak knows more about their processing times than the director there lol To me personally, "touched" cases is what matters. If I can know ~90% of the cases for my month will be "touched" in a certain time frame, lets say 13 months for Sep 2022, that gives me a greater insight when I would potentially hear something from USCIS (approval, denial, RFE, whatever). If that makes sense.
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If they pivot off Feb at where it is now soon, I will start getting concerned. But I have raging anxiety lol
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It looks like they touch almost everyone before moving on, right? For example, Feb is at ~80% touched, but they probably won't accelerate to other months until they are at ~75-80% processed ~95% touched. At least that is how I see it playing out, but maybe I am interpreting their flow differently.
