FromMexico W/Love
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Everything posted by FromMexico W/Love
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Attitude in replies
FromMexico W/Love replied to AndiB's topic in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.
I know gaslighting when I read it, and girl you are a pro. -
K1 vs CR1
FromMexico W/Love replied to izzy777's topic in What Visa Do I Need - Family Based Immigration
K-1 has been speeding up drastically compared to the stats you are referencing. Has CR-1 done the same in 2023? Based on current processing trends in 2023, someone filling an I-129F in May will have their NOA2 by Feb 2024 and their embassy interview sometime in summer 2024 (country dependent), so you are looking at ~350 days now until interview for K-1 vs CR-1. Unless you have proof of drastically reducing CR-1 processing timelines in 2023, the days of the K-1 being faster are back. -
Comparing total cases processed in a month against each other is like comparing apples to oranges because some months have more/less working days than others. Also, this month is on pace for just north of 5k cases if they process at the rate they have done so far in July ~252/day. But regardless of the monthly total, what you want and need to focus on is the daily average over the past 2 months (June/July) which is ~257/cases a day. This gives you a more substantial chunk of recent data to accurately reflect what speed USCIS is processing.
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July has the 3rd highest daily average since we have been tracking. July's daily average is better than Jan-Apr 2023.
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There is news everyday, just not here
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Well it must be true then! Jeez I am now up in arms.
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Which USCIS processing center did you work at? You seem to have a lot of valuable information, and I would love to hear some insight.
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A 9-day increase on NOA2 to NVC timeline vs a 4 month reduction in NOA1 to NOA2 processing.....
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Some filers can have things in their background you know nothing about too.
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Mine is fully in October now, and I think that there is a real possibility that it moves up another month/month and a half! That would put me at 12 months for NOA2, which is just amazing to think about.
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Either way, I think this helps us out tremendously in gauging our analysis, either they are aiming to reduce from ~14 to ~11 months or from ~12 to ~9 months or some place in that ballpark. If December 2022 filers get their NOA2 in October/November which is a very real possibility, then in mid 2024 the processing time will be in line with traditional K1 visa processing speeds.
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What is the median processing time they are judging this against? Is it in the next 6 months to drop from current 16.5 month median wait time to 12 months or a different marker they are using?
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I wonder if the strategy to blast through the first 50% will have the intended impact to shrink the wait time dramatically and that they end up moving the "goal posts" on what and how quickly they process cases. For example, will they change the reporting to be, we process 50% of cases within 6 months compared to 80%?
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Here is a snippet of my spreadsheet, just some rough math. And I have the starting amount of backlog smaller for this because I didn't factor in some ghost cases lol
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I remember I had to take multiple stat classes in business school and I hated my life lol, luckily I had really nice teachers
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More than likely!!! With the way USCIS has been processing cases so quickly, I also made an probability chart for when I might get my NOA2. If they keep processing 1,200-1,300/week then I am going to be a happy camper!
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No not at all. My future mother-in-law and lots of her family drives in the US all the time with her own car on just a tourist visa and with Mexican plates.
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I would look up what country DLs are accepted by the US, because Mexican and Canadian citizens drive in the US daily, so I would be surprised if you couldn't drive in the US with an UK DL.
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That stinks but can't put a price tag on love.
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Just did some napkin math and by mid August, USCIS should be starting my month's NOA1 dates.
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With the type of questions I see asked on the facebook page I am not surprised at the least bit.
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I do not care about AOS at all, that process could take 27 years and I wouldn't bat an eye lol
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Hmmm this is interesting. I wonder if they are trying to game the numbers or if they are expedites that aren't labeled in the scanners...? Something is a foot!
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Nov is more like 4 to 4.5 months away from starting. Because there is roughly 2 to 2.5 months on the estimated wait time before they start processing said month. For example, they are getting ready to start May at any moment and they are 2 to 2.5 months from being completely finished with May.
