myohmyohmy

I hope you're right and I hope there isn't this huge surge the media is predicting.

Same here, I was just expressing my worry without researching so don't listen to the shutdown thing. The asylum and end of Title 42 I know it takes resources if there's a huge influx again. My friend that worked there was explaining why, Something like a 180 day mandate by law to make a decision, some cases go to court some don't, he said it depends how they come in. Oh well nothing I can do about it.

So you don't think it takes extra resources to process an influx? My friend used to work for the USCIS (area different that what we are going through) and he did indicate they move people around due to the mandate that asylum seekers have to be approved in a certain amount of time. The potential shutdown maybe not, that's just another item I worry about but don't know much about. I'm hoping neither!

If everything continues as is I think we are looking at our group starting in December, at least according to the spreadsheet but who knows how accurate it is. It indicates if they do 5,,000 a month like they are doing, it should start in 7.9 months. I'm optimistic but there are a lot of potential obsticles like the end of Title 42 in May which will see a big increase in asylum seekers and a potential government shutdown in the fall, we will see....

I'm a natural worrier so now I'm worried about May 12 when Title 42 expires and they anticipate a big increase in asylum seekers which takes away resources from other departments. Then the fall will be the budget battle (different than the upcoming debt ceiling battle) but the budget has led to government shutdowns, including 35 days during the last administration. And with congress in such disarray I'm not optimistic. But there's nothing I can do so hopefully things work out.

The current processing time is NOT16.5 months. To get the 16.5 months they look at the past 6 months' of data and adjudicated cases, they then compute how long 80% of the adjudicated cases took. Their processing times were slower in 2021 and 2022 as they had fewer resources plus covid disruptions. So the cases that have been decided in the last 6 months were cases that started when they were much slower than now. As the months progress this number will drop as it will start reflecting cases received and processed with the higher staffing/resource level. 16.5 is a lagging number and not representative of the current state.

They just barely started February and seem to be picking up steam at about 4,000 cases processed per month, if that remains accurate we (December 2022) will expect our group to start in 11.1 months (as of 3/23/2023). But it does seem like they are doing closer to 4,500 a month starting in March if so, we can expect our group to start in about 10 months (as of 3/23/2023), I hope they keep the rate up! but I am, for me, not anticipating anything before April 2024.

that the 16.5 isn't that important and is just statistical.

They aren't necessary increasing the processing time, this number is arbitrary. The spreadsheet is more accurate.

Took me forever to figure out the meaning and I work in numbers! Basically the number to me means nothing although it would look better if lower. I just did a simple example: Say October 2021 is 16.5 months ago and 1,000 people apply. And NO one applies since. They get that 16.5 number by looking at "adjugated" cases, which means made a decision, in the last 6 months and use that number. their definition is "This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months." They are only looking at the past 6 months. Say 900 of the cases were approved in November 2021, this is not reflected in the 16.5 because only 6 months is included in the 16.5. Say the remaining 100 is completed in the last 6 month time frame, if you look at those 100, 80% would have been done in 16.5 months. The others took longer. But the point is 900 of the 1000 could be approved right away and that doesn't get reflected in the 16.5 as it's not an average. Basically from my analysis the 16.5 means nothing. That's how I read it.

I've finally figured it out unless someone can prove me reasoning wrong.

Yep, the number means nothing, of course it would look better if lower but we don't know if processing time is increasing or decreasing, from what I read it's increasing

The processing time may or may not have increased, the 16.5 is not an average, it's 80% of cases decided within 16.5 months. 79% could be approved day 1, 1% 16.5 months later and that's 80% in 16.5 months.

This doesn't necessarily mean the processing time increased. It just means that, of the cases processed in the last 6 months, it took them 16.5 months to process 80%. Of that 80%, 79% could have been approved the day after applying and the 1% could be decided in February 2023 and that's 80% in 16.5 months.

This really doesn't mean much so I wouldn't worry. That 16.5 month is based on the last 6 months applications that were processes/approved/denied, but it's NOT an average. Say 16.5 months ago, we will say November 2021, 1,000 people applied and no one has applied since. 80% of those cases, 800, were processed within 16.5 months of submittal. 799 could have been processed in December 2021, 1 in February 2023 and that's 80% within 16.5 months. Or 799 could be processed in February 2023 and 1 in December 2021, that's 80% within 16.5 months. It doesn't mean much as it's not an average.

I don't think you need the backside unless there's something important on it, all my info was on the front. My lawyer never asked for the back and he's done plenty of these.

My point was there are so many illegal people here and the fact the prior administration was antiimmigrant (for example, banning people from Arab countries) and slowed the process down. They issued more RFEs, slowed interviews and thinned staff, they made it political. Further, all administrations focus on employment (H1B and others) over k1s. This is because USCIS is self funded and employers pay $2,500 and more. And when it's self funded they can't hire more people unless their budget increases via fees, they are the rate division of government that is self funded and can't take money from the federal government. So when you have an influx of asylum seekers, illegal crossers and illegal DACA people that don't have to pay the fee they can't keep up since they can't hire more. And then you throw the pandemic on top of it and it's a system that is on the verge of collapse. Wait until these politicicsns shut down the government later this year for weeks like they did last time, and this process will get even longer. Anyway I'm done with this thread. Bye

I agree they go in cycles but never 15.5 months and it all started a few years ago when someone didn't want immigrants and made it tougher. Plus COVID and illegal immigration surging due to the current administration= more delays. I'm not solely blaming one party as each made it worse, I'm just saying it's never ever been 15.5 months and the system stinks when you follow procedures and are an honest citizen. Illegal and you get special treatment.

I just found this in another persons post and watched whoever is behind the youtube's presentation, it's really good! Do what he says and complain to your congressman and senators and the President! "I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed."

I just found this in another persons post and watched whoever is behind the youtube's presentation, it's really good! Do what he says and complain to your congressman and senators and the President! "I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed."

I don't know who this person is but I really like his analysis and hope he continues! ALso, I'm following his advise and emailing my senators and congressman:

The whole process is so frustrating, it used to be faster but the last Administration slowed it down as they were anti-immigrant - they slow walked the process by increasing RFEs and interviews. And then they shut down processing on top of it. So frustrating, I'm just hoping mine is done before the next election in case more anti-immigrant politicians are elected. I am glad I applied last year and not later this year or next!

Did you join the December 2022 group? I did, I think mine is 12/7 so it'll be a race! ha.

If that's true you have nothing to worry about, they don't care. I go visit my same sex fiance in El Salvador and they never ask, just ask where you're staying. They really don't care who it is and if you say friend that's fine, people all the time go to visit friends and stay with them. I think they have bigger issues than same sex relationships.

I would've gone down this route but unfortunately it's illegal for us to get married in El Salvador so we had no choice but to go the K-1 route. Stinks but at least we can get married here hopefully before the supreme court changes it!