myohmyohmy

I hope you're right and I hope there isn't this huge surge the media is predicting.

Same here, I was just expressing my worry without researching so don't listen to the shutdown thing. The asylum and end of Title 42 I know it takes resources if there's a huge influx again. My friend that worked there was explaining why, Something like a 180 day mandate by law to make a decision, some cases go to court some don't, he said it depends how they come in. Oh well nothing I can do about it.

So you don't think it takes extra resources to process an influx? My friend used to work for the USCIS (area different that what we are going through) and he did indicate they move people around due to the mandate that asylum seekers have to be approved in a certain amount of time. The potential shutdown maybe not, that's just another item I worry about but don't know much about. I'm hoping neither!

If everything continues as is I think we are looking at our group starting in December, at least according to the spreadsheet but who knows how accurate it is. It indicates if they do 5,,000 a month like they are doing, it should start in 7.9 months. I'm optimistic but there are a lot of potential obsticles like the end of Title 42 in May which will see a big increase in asylum seekers and a potential government shutdown in the fall, we will see....

I'm a natural worrier so now I'm worried about May 12 when Title 42 expires and they anticipate a big increase in asylum seekers which takes away resources from other departments. Then the fall will be the budget battle (different than the upcoming debt ceiling battle) but the budget has led to government shutdowns, including 35 days during the last administration. And with congress in such disarray I'm not optimistic. But there's nothing I can do so hopefully things work out.

The current processing time is NOT16.5 months. To get the 16.5 months they look at the past 6 months' of data and adjudicated cases, they then compute how long 80% of the adjudicated cases took. Their processing times were slower in 2021 and 2022 as they had fewer resources plus covid disruptions. So the cases that have been decided in the last 6 months were cases that started when they were much slower than now. As the months progress this number will drop as it will start reflecting cases received and processed with the higher staffing/resource level. 16.5 is a lagging number and not representative of the current state.

They just barely started February and seem to be picking up steam at about 4,000 cases processed per month, if that remains accurate we (December 2022) will expect our group to start in 11.1 months (as of 3/23/2023). But it does seem like they are doing closer to 4,500 a month starting in March if so, we can expect our group to start in about 10 months (as of 3/23/2023), I hope they keep the rate up! but I am, for me, not anticipating anything before April 2024.

that the 16.5 isn't that important and is just statistical.

They aren't necessary increasing the processing time, this number is arbitrary. The spreadsheet is more accurate.

Took me forever to figure out the meaning and I work in numbers! Basically the number to me means nothing although it would look better if lower. I just did a simple example: Say October 2021 is 16.5 months ago and 1,000 people apply. And NO one applies since. They get that 16.5 number by looking at "adjugated" cases, which means made a decision, in the last 6 months and use that number. their definition is "This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months." They are only looking at the past 6 months. Say 900 of the cases were approved in November 2021, this is not reflected in the 16.5 because only 6 months is included in the 16.5. Say the remaining 100 is completed in the last 6 month time frame, if you look at those 100, 80% would have been done in 16.5 months. The others took longer. But the point is 900 of the 1000 could be approved right away and that doesn't get reflected in the 16.5 as it's not an average. Basically from my analysis the 16.5 means nothing. That's how I read it.

I've finally figured it out unless someone can prove me reasoning wrong.

Yep, the number means nothing, of course it would look better if lower but we don't know if processing time is increasing or decreasing, from what I read it's increasing

The processing time may or may not have increased, the 16.5 is not an average, it's 80% of cases decided within 16.5 months. 79% could be approved day 1, 1% 16.5 months later and that's 80% in 16.5 months.

This doesn't necessarily mean the processing time increased. It just means that, of the cases processed in the last 6 months, it took them 16.5 months to process 80%. Of that 80%, 79% could have been approved the day after applying and the 1% could be decided in February 2023 and that's 80% in 16.5 months.

This really doesn't mean much so I wouldn't worry. That 16.5 month is based on the last 6 months applications that were processes/approved/denied, but it's NOT an average. Say 16.5 months ago, we will say November 2021, 1,000 people applied and no one has applied since. 80% of those cases, 800, were processed within 16.5 months of submittal. 799 could have been processed in December 2021, 1 in February 2023 and that's 80% within 16.5 months. Or 799 could be processed in February 2023 and 1 in December 2021, that's 80% within 16.5 months. It doesn't mean much as it's not an average.