Oriku

Hey, sorry about being so silent lately, but, allow me to lay out as things are. My case is in the 43000 range, so it's at least slightly reassuring that there are others that were unlucky enough to get stuck in it, as bad as that sounds, however, the really sucky part is the fact that I cannot really do anything until August 15, as that is the day I can contact USCIS at the earliest, however, if that day comes and I'm still not approved, I think I'm going to write to every single federal representative that I can find, to ask them to inquire about what the heck is wrong with my case, and any other case left untouched in that range. Until then, it's time for obsessive checking of every single app and forum that tracks these things 😅

This probably is not terribly helpful, but have my lawfully CAP ranking tracker for this week. As stands right now, in month of January on Lawfully there are 85 cases left, which according to I-129F tracker sheet means that Lawfully tracks roughly half of all January 2022 cases that are left, and as of right now, it seems like that out of them all, 8 got resolved this week, and that is a lagging indicator as it does not include cases from Thursday, or Friday yet. So they took care out of 8.7% of all cases that were left at start of the week, It's not the most breakneck of a speed, but hey, I'll take it, as long as they don't forget about us. (And also, seems like Lawfully actually tracks half of the cases as the amount that got resolved is more or less also half of totals that Sarah got from Ngillet, damn, they have to be getting some real money from that adoption rate.)

That's generally not exactly how this works. From what I've seen, majority of cases that get denied are denied automatically at the start of the process by looking at yes/no answers, as well as making sure that there is nothing obviously fishy in the application, so that is where most of cases that are denied get tossed. But, since I got that off my anecdotal evidence (That being following K1 data for far too long.) So, also have something somewhat more concrete. If you look at Lawfully USCIS Case Status Message Explorer, 1% of Cases that are at 'Case Was Received' stage progresses after an average of 408 days to 'Case was Denied'. As a comparison, 60% of Cases with status of 'Case Was Received' cases are approved after an average of 415 days. So cases that are denied on average take less to deny then cases that are outright approved take to be approved. That is not mentioning the fact that vast majority of cases are approved, and I mean vast, like, Lawfully also says that currently 48.5% of K1 cases for January are approved, 42.3% are being processed, and 9.12% of cases have been denied. And, a funfact, months ago, and I mean months, the amount of cases that have been denied for January was like 8%, since then, something like 48% of all cases that were pending were approved, and at most 1% got denied, so, in short: I know this is hard, but it's very unlikely you will get denied, paradoxically, the longer you wait, the less likely it is you will get denied. At the very worst, you will have to wait two and a half months more before you will be able to send an inquiry to USCIS. (Usually, for a vast majority of folks, if you send an Inquiry and then get a response, case won't take that much longer.)

First of all, @Ngillet and @Bh_sarah, thank you a thousand times, I was trying to run my own little modeled assumptions before based on I-129F Report, but your ways are so much simpler and nicer to look at. Second of all, do excuse me if that is a question you don't really have answer for, but according to the data I've more or less scrapped from other months that have topics on here, and assuming that everything before September is cleared: that assumption might be wrong, but the further back I go, the harder it was for me to find any recent data. There are 7045 cases left before the very last case of January is processed, the tempo at which I-129F have been processing lately have been around 672~ cases per week. If USCIS doesn't slow down, or pick up, that means they should be done with that very last case of January 2022 on May 21st, 2023. Is that something that's a reasonable assumption, or have I made some sort of mistake in my thinking? (Of course, this is excluding RFE's or any other mishaps.) And again, thank you two so much, your data is incredibly helpful.