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AndiB

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Everything posted by AndiB

  1. AndiB
    It's okay, I can rarely count either so I wasn't even 100% I had it right either 😂 Congrats on your month improvement!
  2. AndiB
    How long you wait for an interview compeltely depends on your embassy. Some are a couple weeks, others are months. I'd look for someone who recently got K1 at your embassy on the timeline search to get an idea
  3. AndiB
    Countries don't make a diff at NOA2 stage. Your profile also says about 15 months unless you're using a diff measure
  4. AndiB
    Weird, mine is at 15 months 3 days
  5. AndiB
    I imagine it'll update to 2022 when they get there maybe? Atm they're only processing 2021 (cept expediates) so no reason for them to track 2022 cases yet
  6. AndiB
    the improvement won't have an effect yet, it was literally last week????? Also one week out of multiple. We expect times to stop increasing on USCIS (maybe one more increase) but they will not stop here for awhile. They are based on users of the site whereas USCIS is a rolling average. This website hasn't quite caught up to the current USCIS times from what I've seen.
  7. AndiB
    sadly I do not, I believe these projects mostly started as the K1 was fluctuating so widely. I think spousal is still fairly predictable as long as you know service centre? I lack knowledge in this area
  8. AndiB
    Quick math based on slightly outdated numbers, they need to get to about 1400+ per week to get close to their 6month goal (but that would have to be now, next month may need to be like 1500). That's not super out of the bounds of reality with the way their numbers are tracking. I wouldn't be super shocked if they were down to 10months by around Oct but I would also rather be cautious and assume we'll hang closer to 12-14months.
  9. AndiB
    that's not fiance.... The goal for our visas are 6months not 2months. I agree I don't expect them to meet this goal though. I just mention it in my post as to have such an extreme goal means they have to be making big changes ASAP. If the goal was like 12 months...it'd be more achievable but require far less movement on their side. I will die of shock if they get down to 6months by Oct but honestly...at this rate they may not be miles off the mark by then
  10. AndiB
    to add to this, it's a worker visa. It makes sense to have short waits and premium options for workers. A company may need a worker ASAP and for economical reasons it makes sense to expediate these visas. A family visa is a lower priority.
  11. AndiB
    that's not a fiance visa, 1-129 has a goal of 2 months then 2week for premium. I-129f will still be 6months goal with no premium options.
  12. AndiB
    My estimate is not reliable yes because it is completely my own biased opinion...I can't say how many cases they'll be doing in 2 months but the 800 number for last week, is reliable. It's in the past. My prediction of the future is an educated guess at best. I just always make sure to state that so people don't think I have some insider knowledge and believe it' 100% facts You're cherry picking statements and mixing them together. I will 100% be buying celebratory drinks or a meal or something
  13. AndiB
    Hopefully, they're aiming to get down to 6months this yr which I don't think will happen but it does imply they're making big changes rapidly (ie it's not going to be years before we see improvements). I do expect to see us doing about 1k by march based on the trend so far but it's impossible to know as we don't know what the changes or timeline of changes are. If you add your timeline on your profile it keeps you up to date on what your estimate is based on other users timelines btw.
  14. AndiB
    I'm Oct 2022 as well! Honestly I'd expect Jan-Feb 2024 still but that's better than summer 2024 that we were trending towards. Could get lucky and squeeze into 2023 though!
  15. AndiB
    it's not based off people self reporting as not everyone is in a forum to share news and as you say, it's not reliable. I meant manual as there's some way to see daily approvals, rejections and rfe's, I don't do this and haven't looked into it to I don't know the *exact* process but it's pulled from the USCIS site so it's reliable. It's just not *exact*. So it's usually off by like a few 10's from what I've seen You're correct, I think some people will do it manually and count from where ever you pull the data but some people have made computer scripts that automate this process.
  16. AndiB
    Someone else will give you a better answer but people are somehow able to pull data from somewhere on approvals, denials and rfe's. I think it's a very manual process (so have to pull case by case) which is why the number can vary a bit between people who do this. None of it is officially shared by USCIS as you are correct, they don't publish these sort of stats themselves. It seems to have been pretty reliable though, as people can estimate how much processing time will increase based on the stats and have been pretty correct in the past. With the new numbers, we should expect it to stop increasing and hopefully slowly start decreasing. We'll have to wait to see how it trends for next few weeks though
  17. AndiB
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview# It often lags so give it a week or two before worrying about numbers. Like I've seen 100 before only for it to jump to 600 a week later 😂
  18. AndiB
    Talk of processing hitting 700-800 last week! I am unsure if the spreadsheet I follow includes RFEs as it's usually almost 100 out from totals I see elsewhere so we're either meeting incoming or close to! Either way we shouldn't be seeing jumps in wait times any more (maybe we'll get one more 0.5 increase) and hopefully by spring they'll be tackling the backlog if not sooner! Unless there's a drastic change I don't know if we'll see much of a decrease in wait time this year but maybe we'll at least see some but right now I'm just happy that we shouldn't have longer waits coming!!
  19. AndiB
    Agency websites and some lawyers seem very out of date, lots of websites that come up still quote 6-8 months. Agree to only look at USCIS but newbies don't know that. Also reminder I-129F takes 15.5months to get notice, it's 2-3months+ after to actually get visa in hand.
  20. AndiB
    Probably not a shock to anyone but officially 15months on website now and will continue to increase as we're only at ~500 processed/week v ~800 new/week. Positive is they've almost doubled the number processed per week compared to april so hoping that'll continue
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