AndiB

Yh bf and I will discuss on trip in march when hopefully we have a better idea of timeline. I doubt I'll be able to resist moving there as soon as viable though 😂

Thanks for this! I do find it crazy when people think uscis will just not care or not put any effort into fixing this. I know government agencies are slow to turn things around in general so my expectations aren't high but I do know things can't stay this way 😂 Even the agency says it can't. No 'oh well what can we do'. They're working on fixing it.

You'll still need it for AOS. You can't pass the immigration medical without both covid shots

Probably, flu is if you travel in winter for instance. Same with hep-b, I don't have it from childhood so have to get it for immigration purposes. Nothing about the COVID vaccine makes it special enough to warrant removal from requirements. People are entitled to not get any vaccine but doesn't mean they have to let you immigrate, they'd deny you if you were missing MMR too 🤷‍♀️ Just because someone is free to choose doesn't mean the country owes you entry or immigration approval. One day they may remove covid as req but I don't think it'll be for awhile (yr+). It's still a travel req for non-citizens btw. It hasn't been removed. There's literally no reason for them to be motivated to remove it. It doesn't affect US citizens so only people who care are a small handful of foreigners

Agreed. Honestly even if it only stays at 15 months I'll be happy. We were looking at 2yrs when we applied 😭

Sadly today's numbers are about half of ydays, 130 (mon 282) processed. Already at 300+ removed from backlog for the week though

That's fair, as I say everyone is free to use what data they want and make their own assumptions. My friend went through K1 and didn't find the VJ estimate at all accurate so I'm using it only as a general guide and prefer to follow what's actually happening at uscis. Personally them speeding up a lot could catch me and fiance completely unprepared so I'm actually hoping they don't accelerate too much but data is implying they might 💀 I just share numbers and try to give some info, after that it's personal interpretation cause lord knows none of us can be sure

The VJ and USCIS both use averages over a certain time period. This increase is only this month so it'll take awhile to show up on VJ and USCIS. VJ will also depend on who self reports, there are people at 15.5-16.5 months getting theirs atm and even some waiting longer. There's also quite a decent number of November getting theirs but this will be anywhere from 14-15 months so not a drastic decrease. We're discussing more long term trends, it won't suddenly drop to like 12 months or less for jan/feb filers because they're only just starting to increase to under 15 months. As I say, we'll have a better idea in a month or so how it's looking

A bunch of November filers have been getting theirs last week or two which is 14 months, they're closing in on December now. The issue is they're still busy in Oct (15-15.5months) and a lil in sept (16 months). We're not 100% clear it'll be faster but we're analysising the data, it's not difficult to take backlog and divide by number they remove from backlog everyday to get an estimate on how long it'll take from now assuming pace doesn't increase/decrease. Atm I'm sitting somewhere at 12-13months for NOA2 but based on their newsletters we expect it to keep increasing pace. We just can't be sure or how fast it'll increase which is why we always say we need to wait and see. No one is adament it'll be a lot faster, just that's what the data CURRENTLY points to. If it changes, then we'd discuss that too. Best we can do is share current and everyone is free to make their assumptions 🤷‍♀️ My field is literally data analysis so I'm not making it up but I also can't really be sure of anything months in future when uscis changes rapidly from week to week. The fact they are increasing and they have a VERY optimistic goal of 6 months by October makes me think they plan to keep increasing pace. I don't think they'll reach their goals but we know they're aiming for a dramatic decrease in wait times which means big changes. Remember this time last year it was like 250/week it's now 250/day

I see youre a Nov 2022 filer @Quimat You have to remember a lot of 2021 filers filed when it was 6-9 months and saw it increase to 15.5months so have been waiting 6-9months longer than they expected so they're used to being disappointed. I think we'll end up just under a yr for our NOA2 but will take a month+ to get a good idea of trend.

Yeah fb is hella negative, I kinda get it but it's not a fun atmosphere. I think it's okay to be cautiously hopeful, things are finally moving in the right direction. Just have to hope you're in the first 50% what it gets a little depressing

they seem to sometimes miss one or release very late so it's difficult to tell honestly. Also eagerly awaiting it

Looking like 265 processed and about 210 removed from backlog already 🤩

Also their NOA1 is similar to mine and seeing if they increase to 4000 per month (being at almost 3500 already) NOA2 is expected end of Sept *nervous chuckle* As much as I wanna be with my partner ASAP we were banking on at least a yr before NOA2 for admin life reasons aaaahhhh. Which is why I'm tracking it so we don't get caught off guard if earlier...oh boy time to get a move on just in case

that or they're only looking at more recent and are including everything.... if you don't include July-Sept number is quite a bit lower. Was the OP the one to share on reddit?

comparing it to the old spreadsheet that seems to have stopped getting updated, it's just approvals/denials but they may be casting a wider net than Anna and I which is why their numbers of Approvals/denials are higher.

I wonder why their cases in front of us estimate is so low.. I'm 24th Oct and have an estimate fo about 50k right now 💀 I hope theirs is right but when Sept 30 was 55,500 cases I dunno where 15k (+ those filed 1-14th Oct) went 🤔

oh I like it 😍

they've started looking at Oct in last month I think but are also working on July-Nov so I wouldn't say it's unusual not to have heard anything yet. Think they're at 50% of Oct done. 99% of people are at cali as that's who deals with K1s. Have you been checking your case status online? Also join here

I've seen a lot of cases messed up by bad advice from attorneys too so it's honestly hit or miss. I agree most I'm seeing are letters of intent missing or two years meeting either missing or vague (no dated pictures/plane tickets etc). It seems, at least for 2021 that there were a few who thought covid meant the 2yr rule was flexible/ could be ignored or they thought meeting after filing would suffice. I think I saw someone meet 2 weeks after filing but had been over 2yrs prior to filing so were denied.

Honestly we're probably hitting the point a lot of people knew it'd be a long wait so aren't as anxious?? That or they'll all pop up when it's time. 2021 people applied when it was 6-9 months probably and quickly it went down hill so they weren't expecting the long haul

I haven't honestly kept track of which rfe I see posted and from where but majority I've seen are proof of meeting within 2yrs or proof of relationship. Usually photos sent in aren't dated or something was insufficient/missing

I agree with this. I think it's totally fine to be cautious or believe it'll be slower/whatever but don't need to constantly quote people and tell em to stop having hope. People can believe what they want. No need to 'well actually' everyone all the time

That website is also linked to in their latest report here https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/uscis-releases-new-data-on-effective-reduction-of-backlogs-support-for-humanitarian-missions-and The fact they don't highlight I-129f's doesn't mean anything to me like it seems to Lynx, humanitarian and workers will always be their priority 🤷‍♀️

Ah I count withdrawals as backlog reduction but they're so minor. Ty!