AndiB

In many countries it is and USCIS may therefore just treat all as binding instead of investigating which are and aren't or maybe it's a general rule that a marriage is a marriage, legally filed or not. You may not see it as the same but USCIS does.

I filed end of Oct and I was in tears at my bf's place because processing times kept increasing and I started following the data around then. In mid Oct we were looking at 24months+ until NOA2 for an Oct filer. I can totally understand how seeing no improvement is disheartening but to give context we were looking at processing estimates on USCIS website (so official) creeping up 0.5-1months EVERY month in 2022. We kept watching the goal get further and further away. We're now at a point where the goal at least seems to be staying constant which isn't great but it's better than the increases we were seeing. I'm really hopeful we'll see a decrease and it does hurt to see it constant so I think it's okay to feel upset about it. I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed. Even looking at I think his last 4 you'll see Oct 2022 go from 24months to 18 months. The improvements are there (for us late 2022 filers), it's just not obvious without knowing the history ❤️

Also remember without these improvements we'd be looking at wait times *increasing*. I think no increase is still great news! I would love for them to improve and it's killing me to be apart but I also was expecting a 2yr+ wait for NOA2 if there hadn't been improvements so personally 15months is like 'thank god' to me. I understand 2021 and even early 2022 filers are still at greater wait times than when they filed though. Hopefully we do see enough processed for the number to start declining soon 🥰

yeah, I personally include withdrawals which bring it to about 800 both weeks for removal from backlog but number processed do include RFEs. Usually we look at two diff things: number processed to see how quickly they get to a case and amount approved/denied (and in my case, withdrawn) to see how fast they're getting through the backlog. I wouldn't say it's disheartening though, both numbers are great improvements on early Jan/before xmas when it was about 800 process + 500-600 approved/denied. We've seen an improvement of 30-40% in a month or so. It may not be enough but it's not disheartening. Also remember this time last yr they were only doing about 200/week.

looking at m&w's bar chart in Dec filers I see 3.6% withdraw and 5.3% rejected which are probably not insig when talking such large numbers...wonder if that can explain the gap somewhat too? 🤔

I vaguely saw but haven't re-read fully will do now. I agree with you though, everything *seems* to point to 38k being more accurate than the 47k we've been running with

I've seen people lose their K1 as the officer decided they were married based on pictures or knowledge of a ceremony taking place even though no legal papers had been filed. Technically (I think), you are allowed a ceremony if it is not considered legally binding by your country but it is hella risky as I think they're more likely to treat it as meaning you're married than not. I don't know if it's because america is still quite a religious country and therefore for a lot of people being married in frnt of God is still married regardless of how the government feels or if it's because a lot of countries would count that as legally binding but either way....it's a big risk.

that has to be old data, USCIS works in approximate order, everyone except expedites and those needing more intense background checks will be ~15months. It was 10-12months spring 2022 but has been 14months+ since summer at least. It has gone down a little in that some people are getting approvals at 14months but the majority are still around 15 months. USCIS is looking at Oct-Dec 2021 cases right now (Dec started last week). To get 10-12months as things stand, you have to jump the queue by 4-5months which just isn't going to happen. The 6-8month cases I've seen have been expedites (which they usually don't tell you unless asked) or there was recently a case of someone being transferred to vermont and getting an approval at 7months. It is not the norm. Lawyers have constantly been shown to be out of touch (or maybe lying) about expected wait time, some still tell clients 6months which on what planet?!

I sadly won't be much help as I have the same question really but from what I can gather, it's somewhere between 38-48k between now and Oct filers, it seems to ave to about 3k pending by time they reach the month. Like Dec has 3.8k filed but by time USCIS got to dec 2021 there's about 3k pending. A lot seem to be rejected outright, approved (I assume expedites) or other processing. If we use what was reported on 30 Sept 2021 there was 55,500 pending and we've processed about 9-10k since according to google sheets, which is where the upper (40k+) numbers come from but I'm not sure these account for expedites/rejected outright etc because if we assume about 3.5k pending per month (3.5k*11month to oct 22 filers) we get about 38k which is the lower bound. The spreadsheet that quotes about 38k says they arrived to that number through scans, so not using the numbers reported by USCIS. Currently I'm leaning towards the 38k being more realistic but I still assume 40k+ to be safe until USCIS releases more data.

November is main focus with October still having decent numbers and they've just started dec 2021. There are still people in sept, aug and July getting approvals as well

it looks like they scanned and found the number based off received + RFE (38k) whereas my guess is based off the 55k - removed since (47k ish) but zero idea where in the range is accurate. I'll assume the worst (47k) until USCIS tells me otherwise 😭

anywhere between 39-49k for oct 2022

nah you can post, I believe i know the one you mean and I've shared before no issue

If you mean the official estimate? RFEs count as 'adjudicated' I believe so will count towards improving the timeline but it doesn't remove them from backlog until they're approved/denied so yes for processing times, no for cutting into backlog

you can maybe see it in the bar chart in, basically there's a % rejected at start (unsigned form/missing cash etc I think) and also seems approvals etc done ahead of time too, prob expedites

Also also admin at VJ fb checked out the spreadsheets, think he'd have compared the old spreadsheet that has mostly died but looks like generally we underestimate! My assumption is because we only look at their main processing window, they also process others (like expedites etc) which may not show up in our numbers. EDIT: Actually thinking on it, may be because odl spreadsheet didn't consider RFEs processed whereas USCIS did?

Sure there will be a post tomorrow in the weekly count thread but apparently I can't math...this week was better than last! Look forward to Anna's post to confirm because being ill + dyslexia I don't trust me until I see somebody else's numbers 🤣 I got about 1120 processed (but I incl withdrawals) and 800 from backlog!

ahaha it's okay just wanted to be sure cause I def don't wanna damper anyone's spirits 😭

Although at least it exists. My aunt is in a terrible situation and we can't get her out cause UK doesn't have sibling sponsorship. Even with 15-20yrs, we'd have her out now-ish

I don't mean to be negative, just because they have priorities elsewhere doesn't mean they aren't putting a lot of effort into improving K1's etc is all I was trying to say. My point was if we didnt' matter, there'd be no improvements and there's been significant improvement! When I heard it was like 15-20years I was like damn, brining them over to retire at that pt

I would 100% agree K1's aren't their priority, employment, students and refugees are but yh i wouldn't say they don't care, they obv do else we'd be left to rot

I believe we only see RFEs on Sat and usually a small number (like 10ish)

This isn't new. RFEs have been this high before too.

I'm stumped. My received date is the same on everything with notice date 3 days later. Sorry 😭

received date is what is used for inquiries etc so I'd go by that. I don't think the 'notice' date is used for anything (at least that we see)