AndiB

What makes you think they're mostly jan and feb filers? I'm on mobile at work so struggling to look at that spreadsheet so sorry if it's there. I just connect approval/denial/withdrawal for july-dec 2021 right now and got 825 for last week so if majority are 2023 then my numbers would be way higher than theirs with no understanding how...

@Rocketman50 i agree with this, but if no one knows I would send back anything they ask for and I cover letter clarifying you are applying for a fiance visa and not a k3 or any other relative visa as you are not married and don't have children (you're applying for at least) so are unable to fulfill the second portion. Hopefully they can correct things on their end then. Keep a copy of your application + rfe + response to it so if anything goes wrong you have record. Worst case USCIS expedites cases they messed up on if you apply for it

Oh damn I did. I recently cleared my spreadsheet after totalling. I'll see if I can reobtain else it's in flier forums and WhatsApp group. I can look tomorrow, sadly it's bedtime here

do they think you're petitioning for a child too or something? I dunno if they think there's a K2, K3 or such?

I am! I'm honestly stressing a bit as our NOA2 seems to be less and less predictable. I have a *lot* do to prior to visa and I'm a serial procrastinator so I feel it's going to catch me off guard unless it's very late 🤣 If I'm inthe first wave of approvals it'll be 50% excitement 50% blind panic cause I prepared for the worst true true I guess a lot of people read it as up to date estimates but it is averaged over x time while USCIS is rapidly changing week by week so the estimates can quickly be out of date. Currently they aren't but we'll see how they shift compared to USCIS

People seem to have different takes from the data so not saying mine is right but personally they do seem to be speeding up but only for maybe 50% of cases? So the last 50% ends up in the tail, so maybe still 15-16months or longer if in the last 200 of a month. I imagine they're racing ahead like this to keep their numbers down as the front of the approvals wave is getting shorter and shorter but the end of it is getting further (wider spread of approvals) but even that end will start falling under 15.5months (except for the small % that seem to just get left). I'm not sure how they share a caseload but generally the spread of approvals across a month seems fairly consistent, at least for the start so ie there will be approx as many approvals for first half of a month as at the end. Something in the way they hand over cases means some fall behind and we have no idea why but for the majority, times are improving slowly. It's just unfortunate there's kind of a wider window of approvals now making it less predictable. They seem to start shifting when 50% + and then even more so at when 80%+ of a month is done. Visjourney timeline is hit or miss, my friend who went through k1 recently said it was useless to her and based on *current* projections my NOA2 is anywhere from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 (or later if unlucky) but visa journey says end of Jan. Visa journey I believe bases it off user entries and may take a little while for the speed up to show up. I don't think visa journey is a bad marker but I wouldn't rely on it alone.

It's normal. Their website seems to be weird lately. Look at 'case history' and it should be accurate

that's okay, was just curious if anyone had them, don't want anyone to do more work. Y'all already do so much. My NOA1 is very far out so I'm more looking at processing speed atm although the monthly breakdowns is interesting for the reasons you've stated in your data.

yh it came back friday evening (UK) I think so was just curious if anyone went back and did it or gave up

they may remove it for travel but I doubt they'll remove it for immigration, unless you plan to never AOS or get a greencard, you may not be able to avoid it. It may not be required for K visa but it is required at immigration stage. CDC has moved to add to it to regular scheduled vaccines like MMR and Hep-b which are part of immigration req so I would expect covid to also me on that list.

Does anyone have the scans for thurs/fri?

They're looking to add COVID vaccine to regular vaccine schedule (like mmr, hep b and whatever else is norm in US) so I wouldn't hold your breath that it leaves the immigration requirement form. Obviously only time will tell as CDC doesn't set the policy but the fact they're putting it at the same level as mmr and hep b which are requirements for immigration, I wouldn't be surprised if it stays.

unsure but you have to apply within 75 days of arriving as they have to issue it before your K1 expires (90 days). A friend said it can take 2 weeks for your K1 to show up on the I-94 but yeah go to your local SSA office (and if they're useless, try another) and request your SSN with your I-94 as proof you're here on K1 This is their own manual and shows K1 are authorised https://secure.ssa.gov/apps10/poms.nsf/lnx/0110211530

they literally just dipped into Dec last week. They seem to start moving on around 40-50% so when Dec gets there but they've done lik 150 out of 3,000 so it's going to be another two weeks min I'd bet

Yeah agree. We can't really afford the 1.5k as I'll obv be out of work and we have a wedding to pay for. Just ugh

yes, if you click 'case history' it should give you accurate info. Unfortunately it doesnt mean anything beyond IT troubles.

there is a 60 day window for public opinions and then they should be finalising it. So maybe in march/april so I don't think you'll make it, sorry

Ah didn't know they were included. They may fall into outright rejected if so because basically 0 k3s get processed now a days

The ave backlog per month seems to be about 3250ish some are a lil lower, some a lil higher. So I *think* take that number, multiply by how many months between current filers getting approved and you should be a decent approx. I count nov as still in front of me as pending oct+nov+sept is basically equal to a month

Sadly yh 😂

That's the number quoted in their report but he's also pointed out in a prior post that their own reports don't match from quarter to quarter, like I think no. processed didn't match reduction in backlog so it's difficult to be sure. We *think* it's about 40k for oct 2022 filers right now but it's really informed guesses at this pt

I dunno why I lost quote privileges atm... Stupid mobile I think you're right in that at the moment their current speed is basically enough to hold us steady at 15.5 with maayybbee enough to decrease to 14-14.5 in coming months because I think they're dipping into backlog a little bit (we seem to have unaccounted for approvals/denials/rejections). I'm on 5hrs sleep and math is beyond me on backlog for current filers v us.

For some reason can't quote... I don't know if we'll see an update on uscis for a lil while, they average over 6 months and although we are seeing people getting 14 months, there's still a lot getting 15-16 so may average out to 15.5. We maaayyy see it drop to 15 officially in coming month but wouldn't expect much more

mine is still the same I think

As @iwannaplay54 pointed out people have been denied or had issues because of *engagement* ceremonies/parties that looked too much like a wedding. Obviously there'd be no legal or government filing for an engagement but USCIS still decided it looked too much like a wedding ceremony and considered the couple ineligible for K1.