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AndiB

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Everything posted by AndiB

  1. AndiB
    I'll try. My understanding is that in x time (here 16.5 months) they will have processed 80% of cases. Doesn't matter if most were done sooner, it matters how long it took them to hit 80%. So... Let's say there's 100 cases in a month, 80 of those cases will have heard from USCIS *within* 16.5months. That may mean they heard one week after applying, may mean they heard 16.5 months after applying but by 16.5month mark 80 of them should have heard something while 20 haven't Although it's *at least* 80% so if for some reason they approved a big batch at same time they crossed 80 threshold, they may be over 80%
  2. AndiB
    No they're cases that take longer
  3. AndiB
    They're included but it's basically how many months until they hit 80%. Doesn't matter if they did 70% in 6 months, if that last 10% took 16 months, the number would be 16 months
  4. AndiB
    Can't screenshot it seems but both Oct and nov haven't hit 80%. I assume past months were also just short of 80% at 16 months
  5. AndiB
    Any time from now until??? There are still people waiting in Sept etc. Majority seem to be within in 15-16 months though
  6. AndiB
    Think it's the wide spread of focus. I don't think they've hit 80% on Nov which is now at 16-16.5 months waiting. We also only started processing enough to hit backlog in feb I think?? So potentially wait time was creeping very slowly until that point and eventually we'll see it start to come down. USCIS using 80% over 6 months means it'll probably take a couple months to see it come back down. Still seems odd compared to data we see though
  7. AndiB
    Do you have any idea how many are left untouched? No worries if not!
  8. AndiB
    Going off the spreadsheet, Nov filers may not have hit 80% yet which will put them at 16 months + so maybe it is those last 10%+ I'm very sorry deprived. Math is beyond me
  9. AndiB
    Was going to say this The last 20% has always been expendable to USCIS because of this which is why focus really shifts once they hit about 80% of a month. I thought 80% was still getting sorted in 15-15.5 months. The last 20% are looking at longer yes but that's always been true That's NVC not USCIS NOA2
  10. AndiB
    That would be my guess but also really strange considering it seemed at worse 80% was 15-15.5 months??? Really depressing to see though
  11. AndiB
    They usually switch to RFER pretty quick from what I've seen them approval seems to mostly be 2weeks after but can be like a month too
  12. AndiB
    Just unlucky. Doesn't seem to be any particular increase in rfes or denials in later cases
  13. AndiB
    thank you! Will bookmark this time
  14. AndiB
    Does someone have a link to the median processing time across years? It was posted here at some point when they added feb's but can't find it, we're all so chatty 😂
  15. AndiB
  16. AndiB
    It might be that they fall into the WAC #s for feb?? There's usually a little overlap with start of a month. Weird for them to be in the end of month pile already though May also be they got their NOA1 and notice dates mixed up?? Some people use notice date instead of recieved as NOA1
  17. AndiB
    Also see my VJ estimate is now starting in 2023. Double exciting!!
  18. AndiB
    Just saw they've started feb!!! Exciting
  19. AndiB
    it's normal, they include rejections which are due to payment not included/going through, obviously not viable application from the start. Denials happen because fraud still happens and quite a few applicants do not meet the requirements, either financially or the meeting requirement. As long as you have a legit relationship and meet the requirements, you shouldn't have any concern
  20. AndiB
    it's in their footer but https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/edit#gid=1603169151
  21. AndiB
    It depends on embassy, higher fraud countries will have a higher burden of proof. Some people also don't know anything about their partners or don't have correct documents. There's quite a few people who file very shortly after meeting and are basically strangers, that + high fraud country could result in denial but honestly for the spreadsheet, it's mostly admin errors (like payment failure)
  22. AndiB
    Rejections happen if cash isn't included or doesn't go through and such clerical issues. Denials also are usually due to not fulfilling requirement which is the 2yr meeting before applying. Quite a few people thought the rule didn't apply because of COVID and get denied. If you have a genuine relationship, you'll be fine. Denials are rare for those who meet the requirements. Remember scams do happen not irregularly so they'll show up on rej+denials and also occasionally people are religiously married or appear so, resulting in rejection.
  23. AndiB
    I'm at start jan now so getting there!!
  24. AndiB
    Mine is being one of the 10-20% who get theirs a few months later. I can't imagine months of 'is today the day'. The stress would kill me 💀 I do try and remember originally I was looking at 2yrs for a NOA2 so a few extra months is still better than the original estimate
  25. AndiB
    Agreed, I guess regardless of moved or not, they're not gonna make it
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