AndiB

Seeing monthly scanners come up empty today so another day of no real numbers I'm afraid. Does seem something is going on with system but they're still processing and sending out letters so I wouldn't worry. Will just have to peak our curiosity on how nmbers are doing 😂

Honestly I'd be more concerned if they were decent numbers but low, like 100 ish or something. The fact it's 0 approvals flags that something is up on their system

There's 0 approvals so 100% a system issue. Last time we had a system issue there was only RFEs and such so they may have been late monday numbers or there's something preventing proper input. It basically looks like weekend numbers. I would hope they make up for it, guess we'll see

There's no sign more complicated cases get left until last. The time you can apply for an inquiry has always been fluid. They delay it if they get too many as it slows them down. It's not always after the processing time is passed. I understand it may give you comfort to be acknowledged by USCIS that you're still waiting but they know that, you're in the system as pending and they'll get to it when they do. Remember responding to inquiries takes time so if they're having to delay when you can apply that means they're being swamped by it. They're not going to message someone saying 'hey they're still waiting btw', it does nothing but give you comfort. I've never seen a post from anyone being forgotten by uscis so I don't think it's a real risk and you need to remind them you're there, if you're in the system, they know. The case numbers reflect when you applied so they can tell straight away now long someone is outstanding.

I totally sympathise with you and that's my fear too, how being 'left behind' will add stress to the relationship. However you are 100% not forgotten, they unfortunately do have x % that see approvals later than the bulk. I saw a dec approval recently and the odd nov too. They will get to it, I'm just sorry they're making you wait like this. It's not fair but your time will come ❤️

Inquirys don't speed up your case, they just tell you the status of it. I think only like may or something though. They pushed it back

I understand your concern though. I wish we'd filed at start of a month now but I hope you hear quickly 🙏

I haven't looked super closely but what I have seen, generally once they're properly in a month the approvals are pretty evenly spread across the month so it's not just last people who get left, there are people at start and middle also who are in tail. You shouldn't be worse off for filing at the end, not any more than anyone else. Remember they don't go in order so it's not first 80% then last 20% by date order.

fingers crossed for you!! Been following your struggle and hoping you get good news, as least London is pretty consistently fast so chances are good I hope.

It's the same estimates others have come up with and so far has been pretty spot on. We are not sure why the USCIS totals are different to people analysing the data. Your NOA2 is so close you can go off current processing though, for further out it's more of a ???. They will most likely start approving April at 13 months and most with get approvals/RFEs at 13-14.5 months. That's based on where they are now and how many applications there are in a month (3-4k) + processing speed. As I'm sure you've seen, people do exist in the tail with approvals 1.5-17 months though s not guaranteed to be 13-14.5, just likely

Loving a downward trend 🙌

it's updated frequently on the spreadsheet??? Just look at estimate time tab. It's currently sitting between 13-15months I'd say for the bulk of people getting their NOA2 at the moment. They started march 2022 filers at 13months but slowly so it'll peak at around 14-14.5 months probably

Exactly, explained it better than I. They're also processing double per month what they were in Sept-Jan which makes a big difference but as it's historic data it's not obvious. Also without the improved numbers sept-feb, it probably would have increased to 17.5-18months not just 16.5. I'm hoping the next time they update it'll come down to 14.5

True but may depend on country a lil, US for instance requires you have a visa for transit + not sure if you *always* go through border or if you can skip it if you're doing international to international. I know when I do international to international in the middle east I never actually cross their border. Geneva also has a system where technically part of the airport is france so people don't have to technically enter Switzerland. You can def enter a foreign airport without technically entering the country though. Also they may not let you stay at the gate overnight but I've def slept overnight in airports as do many who have to wait for a flight, just depends on airport. Generally super normal in international airports when someone gets bumped or changed to a morning flight

I mean that's surely true of any layover. I've gotten stuck on layovers before, obviously if you can choose being stuck in US layover or Canadian layover then US is preferable but not sure US layober exactly removes the risk of issue on next flight as someone who has missed or had her flight cancelled on 3/4 trips to US in last 18months

Honestly a lot of people make mistakes so I wouldn't worry about RFE too much. Think it's also partly new staff so hopefully that'll decrease as they get used to the job USCIS may say 16.5 months but they're actually approving the bulk around 13-14ish months now so

Lol the US isn't the richest country in the world but I get your point. The US probably deals with a lot more immigration than most if not all countries so makes sense they're overloaded. Last administration also wasn't exactly helping either

I don't I just watch the data and make assumptions based on that. I've also worked with goal orientated offices before. They don't leave 20% behind, most of the months are 80-90% done with almost the last 10-20% being in RFE stage. I'm just saying they may be more motivated to be fast on getting to 50 and 80% because those are their main metrics, then it may slow down a bit or maybe it's just because it's difficult to process 100% before you move to the next. It's not set up that way. No office is. That's why all visas take x to y months.

And my VJ estimate is finally fully in 2023!!

I'm honestly surprised considering Easter weekend but very happy!! What a week 😍

I have been through immigration twice, family members also been through diff ones and I'm in an LDR server, EVERY system I know of has some people get answers super fast and others quite a bit slower but it generally seems less of an issue when it's waiting 1 month v 4 against what we have here of 13 v 16-17. Each day, week and month is felt so much more strongly esp as a lot of these people expected 12 months or less at app date

This has been discussed a few times and bottom line is no one knows for sure. Generally the educated assumption is every worker gets x case numbers assigned to them and when they're done they move onto the next, those last ones probably have slow workers or workers with more difficult cases to sort. Secondly, their metrics are measured at 50% and 80%, the last 20% do not have a large impact on metrics so it's in their interest to keep moving on Also, there's a *very* small % in Q1 who have not had their cases looked at yet. The last almost 20% or less are RFEs so they're mid process. So generally they do do process them in approx order but the number or workers means that spread of cases across workers is probably 1-3months. They're basically done except for a small small % up to Jan and Jan is only about 12% not looked at. As unfortunate and unfair as this is and yh they could do better about it, it's probably just a mix of being on a slower case workers desk + them aiming for 80% processed in x time, not 100%. I'm pretty sure this has always been the process and there's always been a +/- of a month or two on either side of USCIS estimate it's just a lot more heartbreaking and noticeable when they're this far behind and the spread has increased a bit

Yh looking at spreadsheet Oct: 1997 processed Nov: 2316 Dec: 2216 We're now at over 4500 for March so over doubles Q1 monthly Remember Jan and Feb were great months but they were still improving from 2200-ish so Q2 will still be a lil low

no for NOA2, this was based on Oct-Dec processing speeds, they've doubled processing since then.