AndiB

Assuming mods allow us, yes. Sure we'll all be languishing in AOS limbo if not still awaiting K1

Looks like we're on track for a late aug, early sept start of Oct approvals 👀

Looks like you're right! May has officially started, Obllaks sheet has May changes ❤️

Definitely but the requirements are really minimal and they should have known it was a risk. They could have met or waited till meet, they chose not to and apply anyway It'd be like applying before you divorced...

I think I told my fiance to pay by cheque purely to avoid the credit card issue 😂 I think some people have had the acc assume it was fraud and bounce it. No idea of details but yh. People also make silly mistakes all the time, not signing it I'm sure is not as uncommon as you'd expect. Just saw someone on fb get rejected cause they didn't meet for 2yrs because they didn't want to risk covid and is asking how to appeal. I don't understand people 😫

I see quite a few who have the payment not go through on credit cards or don't realise you have to send payment with app etc so wouldn't be surprised. About 3% are withdrawals though. Probably going spousal or changed mind

Remember a month is usually about 4k so 77 wouldnt make 12%. About 2% are approved before they start a month looking at May. Rest are withdrawal/rejection 😊

This seems to come up as a question every few weeks 😂 Vast majority of processed cases before a month starts are withdrawals and rejections. The number that are approved before are minimal, 80 v 420ish. No idea how many of those are expedites, probably most of them. I don't think we can attribute the 12% to "random approvals" at all.

Oh yeah I think cases I've seen of unexpected fast processing was people from war torn countries. May be a case of someone spots it and pushes it through?? No idea but yh difficult to draw conclusions when they're kinda whispers with little detail

Probably used it all up 😂

Yeah numbers are SC specific so I imagine they get a new one. It may even just be an error of someone looking at the wrong case, like pulling wrong one out of pile meaning they hit an earlier one. Honestly so many reasons, it's such a small sample it seems most likely an error rather than any sort of trend

I think it's more likely an expedite that wasn't listed as such or random. I assume they're CSC else wouldn't show up for y'all?? I know random transfers sometimes get lucky. I think they're just outliers that we'll never really know reason for. Everyone always gets into a frenzy though even though it's like 1 in 1k 💀

the numbers at the top are how many are processed per month, two are highlighted because we're somewhere between 5000-5500 at the moment. You then look at the Nov row and that's how many months until they would finish your month if they processed in order. So to get when they start a month, minus 2months. So for Nov they'll start in about 4-4.6months at CURRENT speed

also they have 'estimated time' Look at Nov ETA and that's prob when they'll be into Dec Else look at Dec and subtract about 2months from estimate for when they'll start Dec

no those numbers are the total in front of you, Obllak keeps the backlog updated so you don't subtract anything Dec will likely start in Oct-Nov but approvals will be from start month + 2-3more for the bulk

👀 this thread on vj or social?

It's true 😂 Do you think they're sponsored by Utah online wedding?

Yay congrats!!! I'm seeing so many on fb today, either lots of April people in my circles or a busy monday!

Congrats!!!!!

yeah everyone losing their minds about it going up to 16.5 and proof that it was only getting worse and improvements were a lie etc. It was exhausting but I do understand it's been getting worse for so long and so drastically for people, they expect it at this pt

agreed! I always try and be honest that there's a good chance it'll improve and currently some are getting approvals at 13 months but most are 14-15 but there are also those getting it 16months+. I think context is important and most just give their expectation (really fast, middle or really slow) when it could be any Double agree on marriage visa, people arguing it's better and not accepting someone prefering the k1. It was also the best option for me due to timelines and views on marriage. It def on paper is better to get CR1 but everyone has different needs and views that may affect what's best for *them*

I see vermont suddenly started having data for k1 again on VJ. Think it's cause of the odd transfer we've seen or? 👀 EDIT: loollll looked it up, seems ot be generated off one entry on VJ 🤭

agree with Qui, we fully understand and even said it's understandable to be bitter or wary of the process but they shouldn't say it'll be 19months or two yrs as *fact*. They can say current times and warn it could change, I always try to say the times could be better or worse but chances are good that they'll improve (outside of a massive change, like COVID was). I don't think it's fair to give negative timelines or say wait times won't improve because that's how it was for them. People are trying to make the best decision for them and if they're told K1 is slower or same as spousal when there's a decent chance K1 will soon be faster again, they may regret their choice. My biggest priority was fastest time to close gap, I would be so very upset if I applied for spousal and saw K1 be months faster. Spousal can also vary from country to country, some have long waitlists which can make it 2-3yrs+ but no one says this when comparing k1 to cr1. No one says there's a chance K1 may be faster than CR1 for new filers. Saying 'hey timeline is x but it may improve or it may be like mine where it extended by 8months' is fair. You can warn people it may not be as quick as they expect etc without telling them 'you'll be waiting 2yrs for a visa', because that is likely false. The timeline increase happened because of COVID and not to jinx it, but that shouldn't happen again so the likelihood of timelines dramatically increasing like it did for 2020-2022 filers is super unlikely so acting like it will happen because it did once, is not fair to new filers. People waiting 19months has never been a common timeline for k1. It is a negative bias and not fact. It's in the same way as positive as I am about improvements, I wouldn't say wait time is 12/13 months just because some get theirs that early because it's not accurate as most get theirs later (14-16)