Yes, I agree, I tend to be on very cautious side when it comes to USCIS.
I'm not saying I-131 will be denied because of leaving the US. It may get denied for some other reason. What I'm trying to say: pending or especially denied I-131 is not as convincing to CBP as approved petition. My understanding is, this presents a chance of getting NTA upon return. Only approved and valid I-131 "shields" LPR from getting NTA upon return, if I interpret it correctly. Everything else (pending, denied I-131) - up to CBP. If they have a bad day they could issue NTA since you don't have approval to be out for extended period of time.
Somebody had a case not too long ago, and it's sad they never came back to give an update:
Either way, I think I contributed as much as I could. Good luck to OP.