Lynxyonok

In running numbers this week, I did notice that USCIS' first wave is speeding up. Now, personally I believe that to be a non-factor as the window of approval is widening - it's now up to 4 months, September to December, i.e., cases from any weeks in between can be touched during any given upcoming day. Furthermore, I am seeing a greatly increased RFE rate, e.g., there are over a thousand cases from October / November 2021 filers that received RFEs in January, but let's set this aside for now. So, for a moment I'm going to not be my usual objective self but rather a hopeless optimist, expecting to grab an approval among the first within my hundred of cases. If that's the case, what am I looking at? The first wave of USCIS approvals is currently 7 months, 1 week away for a mid-May 2022 filer. So, if you're trying to schedule one more meeting with your beneficiary, do it before September 2023. If you need to stack up PTO / fore schedule vacations for the purpose of being there for the interview, look at December 2023 and later. Of course, these are but guesses...

It includes all cases closed, for any reason (expedite or not). However, we still don't know if an RFE stops the clock on a case.

There's an up to 25% chance to receive one. I actually folded today. I pre-sent my RFE response without even getting one. 47 pages with pictures describing post-filing meetings. Let's see if it helps or just ends up in a trash can.

Yes, I think that's how it is. Initial = clarify your I-129F. Additional = prove your relationship is ongoing. More like by the time a I-129F packet is seen, the last reported meeting is now over 2 years prior.

I heard Uzbekistan was amicable too. Please do let us know how it goes as I'm sure there are many others in similar situations.

Maybe, but a lawyer is advised at this point in time. You may pass I-129F stage without this coming up, but eventually it might further down the road.

Vax requirement is nil after May 11th, 2023.

At least you got one We got denied.

I am neither judging nor supporting your point of view on this. I'm merely reflecting on the fact that this matters to you. So, I'm taking this a step further. Do you want to run a red light on a busy intersection just because you're running late or are impatient? Don't answer to me on this: I neither deserve nor need this. Answer to yourself only: you're the one to live with her forever. And have kids. P.S. I do have an opinion on all of this. But this is a public forum, and my response is modified to accommodate the widest audience possible.

Thank you. I was trying to understand what I was missing. RFEs have shot through the roof. I am waiting to see how scanner data compares to the USCIS official quarterly bulletin: RFEs do not get reported there, only approved, denied, or otherwise closed cases.

Is the weekly number showing approvals or status changes? Because RFEs are out of the wazoo. Number Message MsgDate 2290023465 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023464 Additional RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290023402 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023384 Initial RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023380 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290023319 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290023299 Initial RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290023270 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023257 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290023255 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023238 Initial RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290023234 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290023078 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290023077 Additional RFE Sent 2/6/23 2290023075 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290023011 Additional RFE Sent 2/6/23 2290022988 Expedite Request Denied 2/1/23 2290022985 Initial RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290022979 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290022953 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290022947 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290022930 Initial RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290022891 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290022888 Additional RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290022832 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290022830 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290022341 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290021970 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290021878 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290021864 Initial RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290021859 Initial RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290021581 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290021523 Initial and Additional RFE Mailed 2/3/23 2290021118 Additional RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290020802 Initial and Additional RFE Mailed 2/1/23 2290020767 Initial and Additional RFE Mailed 2/2/23 2290020744 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290020628 Additional RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290020551 Initial and Additional RFE Mailed 2/2/23 2290019845 Additional RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290016850 Additional RFE Sent 2/4/23 2290016567 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290016509 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290016200 Additional RFE Sent 2/3/23 2290016197 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290016192 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290016161 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23 2290016155 Initial RFE Sent 2/1/23 2290016130 Additional RFE Sent 2/2/23

Yup, that's their current focus: those already in the country. Great for those who got on the bus. Not so for those who just missed it

Withdrawals are holding at about 2 - 2.5% right now. RFEs for aged petitions are quite high, though. First-wave cases are presently facing a 1:4 chance of a RFE, whereas those going on 16+ months, 1:2.

The date for an out of normal processing time request is a precursor to what the official processing time is going to show a few weeks later. The two are hard to translate as one relies on 80% of cases processed within posted times while the other one is 130% of cycle processing time. However, their trends are overall similar. That goal is gone. The current priority is adjustment of status of those already in the country.

Treading carefully here... Have you weighed whether it's best to wait it out rather than make a life-changing decision?

Be positive! First May 2022 case (that I know of) has been approved: 2290081834: May 13th - January 12th

Yes, it would be very interesting to hear of the outcome. Many expedites were filed for Russian beneficiaries in 2022 for the same reason (tensions, war), but I don't know of any that succeeded.

The first wave of applications being opened right now is around 11/24/21, however the entire review window is all the way back to late August.

The reasoning for one might, but the format does appear to be standard - this is not the first time I'm seeing the same set of questions. Hopefully, someone with an actual RFE would chime in, but I wonder if the increase in processing times is causing the increase in RFEs: a couple may have met within two years prior to filing, but have they met within two years prior to their application having been checked by USCIS?

True And you still owe me a recipe

Not sure if everyone else's timelines keep getting pushed back - mine is, I'm almost up to September 2023. That's VJ estimate. I'm tracking the first wave of approvals of this moment around WAC2290022500. For a mid-May filer like me, that's 18,462 cases away from the goal post - assuming I make it to the first wave at all - and that, based on official USCIS processing data, is 8.5 months away - i.e., mid-October 2023. And those hit by RFEs have to layer on anywhere from 2 to 12 weeks. Tough, I know. I've noticed an uptick in withdrawal rates. But we will get through this.

I think USCIS focus is not on K1s / I-129Fs right now. They have been pushing really hard cases already further down the line. As a matter of fact, they have just launched a new section on their site: a dashboard of how many residents are eligible for naturalization. It's as if everything is thrown to support those who can gain citizenship by November 2024. At the expense of those who won't get there in time. Proof? https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data/eligible-to-naturalize-dashboard This did not exist 48 hours ago.

It's because so many people are getting hit with RFEs. I'm starting to see 1 in 3, 1 in 4 incidence rate. Remember, RFE stops the clock for USCIS.

They are delayed up to a month and a half past the quarter end. I think Q1 2023 should be out within the next 2 weeks.

Just for clarity, some NOA1 dates do seem to fluctuate according to my research. Not by much - a few days here and there, but I keep seeing this on many cases again and again. I'd wager that USCIS is forward-updating cases by a hair to decrease the number of "out-of-processing-times" inquiries a bit. I haven't seen any case abuse this by more than a week though.