Lynxyonok

That 50% does sound enticing. It appears that USCIS is focusing on easier cases. I'm seeing their approval trough (the range where a case may get approved or denied) lengthen every week - it's now up to 4-5 months (an October 2021 case is as likely to be touched as a February 2022 one). Thus, the first wave of approvals is indeed riding into early February now - but there are many RFEs (1 in 3), and some of those even sit for 2+ months after the response... as if USCIS is merely riding out the time until the petitioner realizes what is up and withdraws the petition (too many withdrawals way past the expected approval timeframe). I am guilty of having sent USCIS 2 letters of proof of additional evidence already (and I haven't been asked for any yet). I'm going to be guilty next month when I send one more (all 3 packets sent / to be sent after each new meeting with the beneficiary). Guess I'm just that terrified of a RFE or denial.

Thank you for the request. My dataset is extremely simple: a list of all open cases prior to mine (I'm a mid-May filer). Every case that's closed, I delete. Then I take the remainder and compare that against the processing speed of USCIS. I've slacked off as of late, so large sections of my data are 1+ months without an update. I'm working to fix that, so I'm too embarrassed to share anything now just yet.

I-129Fs: 11423 received - 8509 processed. The backlog as of 12/31/2022 (remember, USCIS quarters start 3 months earlier than calendar ones - Q1 2023 is October - December, 2022) was 58,479 - that number, divided by 8509, is a terrifying 20.6-month delay for brand-new applicants. May 2023 be gentler on everyone. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2023_Q1.pdf Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2023_Q1.pdf

So, I need to 'fess up. I'm lost. My VJ timeline (a mid-May-2022 filer) keeps shortening. It's now pointing to a second half of July 2022 for approval. My dataset though, one comparing all unresolved cases, is pointing at a minimum of September 2022 approval for the first-wave May 2022 applicants; and the reason I say first-wave is because cases can take months and months to be touched. Like X-files show said, I want to believe. And I'd love to be wrong. However, for now, I can't comprehend the plethora (a fancy word for multitude, numerousness, or a large number of something) of RFEs issued (as that's got to slow down the case closure rate) and the resulting shortening of processing timelines (as I genuinely fail to see why, how, where). I want to be proven wrong. Because all I see for now is processing times lengthening much further, where VJ numbers are meaningless (please prove me wrong).

I'm going to use my subjective, personal experience here: if a petitioner were to take their time with an RFE for no legitimate reason reason, I would have expected the beneficiary to eat their (petitioner's) ear off through private messages... Because no one wants to wait longer than they legitimately have to.

Yup. In a really weird way, the window of cases being work keeps widening - last week alone February cases has roughly the same chance of being touched as August cases. I'm thinking that they were waiting on RFE rules to get strict again, touching only the easy cases. And now they are going to lurch forward through closing older cases with expired RFEs.

True, however as of 3/23/23, RFEs do have a time limit that's quite strict. I reckon a ton of denials are around the corner for everyone who chose to take their time (or simply had circumstances that were hard against them).

In fairness, and it pains me to say this so much as it contradicts a lot of my past posts: It's broken but it's working. For example, try to become a citizen of Bermuda. Pro tip: Near impossible, even through marriage. USCIS sucks hardcore. I'm not debating that. But, unlike many other countries, it, at least, works. @Lemonslice, thank You.

Sorry if mentioned earlier & a repost - but they did increase their processing time to 16.5 months now. Yes, more cases appear to be touched - but quite a few of those are August, September ones... and a lot of those are denials - likely for taking too long to respond to an RFE. I find it extremely puzzling that USCIS is yet to release Q12023 processing statistics. They are 3 months overdue - in the past these were available as quickly as a couple of weeks after a quarter. This is a major red flag for me. But at the same time my VJ timeline keeps shortening. Go figure... P.S. A fresh catch from my data mining: A 9/20/21 case got an initial RFE on 3/20/23. 18 months later. What. WAC2190138257.

I wanted to give everyone an update in case this is helpful to others. Cruising is a great way to get to know someone as it's in a way a honeymoon (dear Uscis agent in charge of my case: I am not about to be on a honeymoon, this is an allegory, please don't deny us for being too married 🙄) with many mundane worries cast aside. It's not cheap, but it is a great way to leave a lasting impression on one's significant other. Yes, I'm an addict, and I even have a crystal block sent to me by a cruise line to diagnose my condition. Down to business. In short, we're still on track to take a mutual trip in May. But here's what it took: - Getting a Schengen visa approved after the initial denial - nowadays most denials are over so called "point 2" and "point 10": the purpose of a trip and the evidence thereof is unclear; we provided extensive proof of our relationship and other prior meetings to overcome that - Getting trade sanctions bar bypassed - it wasn't just about submitting documents to Guest Services and having to print them all anew to bring along for the boarding; it was about the entire check-in process as well. Our cruise line flat out did not populate essential fields for Russian citizens making them unable to check out, which required a long chat with cruise line tech support. To answer a question as to why on earth would I go through all of this? My significant other has no friends or relatives in any third countries, forcing us to be dead set on Poland for Consulate interview. In addition, my SO has never been to Europe, meaning that we had to open a Schengen visa the best way possible (in our point of view). Is all of this going to work? Ask me on May 7th... @TBoneTX and may the 4th be with us

P.S. It took 2 appeal attempts (one by e-mail, one with in-person documents), around 200 pages of evidence proving solid relationship between us, and 2 months of headaches, but we have finally been approved. On a positive note, if anyone needs a subject-matter expert for dealing with Spanish Consulate, my inbox or public post comments are open. P.P.S. 40 days, 2 entries.

Almost. Somehow estimated timelines have sped up a lot lately. I'm not seeing why or how as RFEs are plentiful these days but I will roll with the flow and celebrate the good news.

The appeal of our denied Spanish Schengen visa application has been granted, with a minor condition (need copies of new tickets). Of course, that caught us on a tarmac about to fly to Turkey for 10 days 🤓, so more details only after March 10th. Just like Galaxy Quest taught us: Never give up Never surrender

Maybe: I may be seeing my fiancée in early May, departing US for Spain on May 5th with her arriving back in Moscow on May 15th. If you're still looking for options by then, hit me up.

I just want to say, stay strong, folks. I'm running December 2021 cases now - seeing quite a few withdrawals, especially right at the same mark as the first wave of approvals. They almost made it... so sad. I know I'm burning all my PTO and cash reserves to not be one of those - 2 trips planned to see my special other, one on Monday, one in May. It's so terrifying to give up and get used to life without the one, picking someone less compatible but much closer geographically. Stay strong. VJ estimates mid-May 2022 approvals in mid-August 2023. My data points to late September 2023. USCIS is delaying Q1 2023 reports by 8 weeks now - not a good sign. I'd love to join the cheerleaders in the "number of processed cases hit the new high" thread, but the overwhelming amount of RFEs (at times 30%, 40% of cases touched) prevents me.

I imagine it would only help to be there. My only concern is that embassies take weeks to print a visa - and an average American can't afford to be away from their job that long. E.g., one fiancée got her passport today, having interviewed back on 2/7 in Warsaw. Seventeen days.

That's the way to go. I'm burning my PTO left and right too to keep the relationship going. And to make more pictures proving an ongoing connection between us.

There are numerous Facebook and Telegram groups where routine visitors to Russia (and similar) accept documents and small packages. I don't vouch for either, but the fact that these businesses exist must mean that goods do make it across.

It's very unfortunate to live in a country that's "the land of the free" until you are not the right kind of "free". Stay strong. We all try to.

So, in order to succeed, one should not be a typical white-collar worker, busy from the early morning on. But a (self-censored description) person who has time to call USCIS at 8am might prevail. Great study. Sad results. AI - when?

Human factor is everything, it seems. I tried for an expedite on Valentine's. Tier 1 Clerk was amazing. Polite. Patient. Cheerful. Wished me Happy Valentine's. Tier 2 Clerk shut down the expedite in 17 minutes from creation.

One of the moments I wish VJ had a "care" emoji. Stay strong.

There's a rumble on Telegram chats about a US petitioner who contacted Department of State claiming they are requiring her beneficiary to break a law in order to make it to Warsaw as Poland doesn't allow Russians in. Allegedly, they got their case transferred to Serbia and just got their interview completed.

Even when U.S. government de facto says "you're on your own"? The U.S. government’s ability to provide routine or emergency services to U.S. citizens in Russia is severely limited, particularly in areas far from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, due to Russian government limitations on travel for embassy personnel and staffing, and the ongoing suspension of operations, including consular services, at U.S. consulates. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/RussianFederation.html#/

Lynn Tracy wants more visas for Russians. ---> Lynn Tracy gets appointed as an ambassador & meets Russian state officials. ---> (You are here) Level 4 travel advisory (again). I can only imagine what kind of Machiavellian games are played, with us but pawns on this huge battlefield. Will our great-grandkids ever get to learn the real story?