Lynxyonok

Is this why USCIS is hiring attorneys in several states? 😋 In all seriousness though: if USCIS was truly hurting for staffing at service centers, there'd be openings posted at those centers. Right now, there's one L3 position in Nebraska, and that's it.

I will start by saying that you're correct on every point made (except for the one where I was described as insightful 😜). 1. Yes, October 2021 is being approved now. Yes, that's a 14.2 month mark (a week ago it was 14.0). However, these are forerunners, and they are very few. I only saw 2 cases past mid-November. 2. The approval queue is very spread out. A lot of action is in September, and even there it's a 1 in 3 chance to catch an RFE. My theory is that I-129Fs are given out in batches (Have you seen "Saving Private Ryan", the scene with all the typewriters?) - easiest cases go first, then harder ones. New cases aren't given to an operator until their workload drops low enough. An interesting point: many September 2021 cases are slammed with an "Additional RFE Sent" bypassing "Initial RFE Sent" - to me it's a Doomsday scenario where an application is only given one chance instead of two, as if in a way to get it denied faster. My case research isn't far enough into 2021 to be able to tell. 3. My research concentrates on future cases whereas USCIS reports past ones. Both numbers are correct (well, theirs is, mine is a guess). The fact is, USCIS is slowing down every quarter, so in about a year I expect processing times to be closer to what I'm posting as opposed to what they are. Again, my numbers are guesses, and I may be wrong or may change my opinion with further research. 4. I'd like to clarify which quarters we are talking about. USCIS year runs October to September; Q1 2021 is actually October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 (the year is drawn from when it ends, after all). For a further example, right this moment we are in Q1 2023 (It's after October 1st, it's before December 31st, and this fiscal year will end in 2023, as in September 30, 2023). Great response! Can't wait to hear back from you.

Pending forms: 55,425 Completed forms Q4-2022: 7,033 55,425 / 7,033 = 7.88 quarters' worth of pent-up data 7.88 * 3 = 23.64 months' worth of pent-up data Discounting 2% of volume for exponentially increased withdrawals and visa-type switches = 22.5 months

USCIS is mainly hitting 2290003000s now. Your time is coming up - maybe right around New Year's.

Is it an option to get a job - any job - in the interim? It would be a red flag to a CO if the petitioner didn't have income for 6 weeks in a row.

The link is here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf Overall, USCIS is still slowing down - 7 I-129Fs closed for every 12 received. This is on par with Q3, better than Q1 or Q2, but way, way worse than FY2021. There's massive emphasis on employment applications and employment-based adjustments of statuses. Family-based form approvals across the board are down. Processing times for those filing now is about 22.5 months.

- Overall, about 1 in 3 cases is a I-129F, others are shared across many other forms - Yes, 22900's cases are starting to be processed; currently first half of October is being touched which puts the first wave at about 14.2 months - However, many remaining 21900's are still being wrapped up, e.g. September, and those are ticking at 17+ when their RFEs are configured in

I would suggest downloading an app like Case Tracker or getting in habit of checking your case online periodically with USCIS. Like those before me had stated, this is a self-led (and -forced) experience the entire way. Be observant, be demanding, be curious (with your research), or be left behind.

No, nothing past mid-October other than 2 strays.

It's fascinating to see how cases genuinely depend on the officer reviewing them. I see batches of hundreds where it's an approval after approval, not a single RFE followed by batches of hundreds where RFE's constitute 70%+ of new updates. If this trend persists, it may become a useful tool for interview planning for us when time comes, to an extent.

More like every month sees "easier" cases being approved first, with those requiring (supervisor's? more experienced peer's?) review taking extra time. I'm sure USCIS has a library of red flags. Hit one, and you better learn to chill. 😔

Correct.

Looking at poster flags, this works for USA-"friendly" countries only. Prove me wrong.

Well, we're approaching the end of quarter. Anything to beef up the numbers one last time - as of the next quarter it's "either the Shah will die, or the ###" (ok, ok, I will say "donkey" instead ). (It's an old Persian tale: Shah at the time suddenly had a mad wish, that for his ### (donkey!) to start speaking. He was demanding that his wise men make it happen, and as they said no, they were threatened with executions... until a very old man stood up and promised that he can teach the poor animal, but it would take ten years. Shah agreed. Other wise men were curious - how are you going to make it happen? I won't, replied the challenger. But when time comes (see above))

Many do.

Yes and no. Yes, because an RFE stops the clock in a way. No, because nearly all of these are additional RFEs. As in, the second ones. The petitioner gets one final chance to provide the information before the case goes down. Overall, for every additional RFE in the second wave, there were 2 approvals in the second wave and 1 in the first wave. I don't record approvals: it's simply a case off the workload for me. So, as long as one has checked every box and provided every piece of evidence with the initial petition, they stand a chance at 14 - 14 1/2 month processing. I also believe that wife visas are tougher to prove which may trigger RFEs. But that's a guess. P.S. That explains why VJ keeps my predicted approval firmly at 14 months despite numbers that I'm running pointing at 18 months+.

I believe I found the true frontline of cases presently being looked at: after that date, "Case Was Received" entries become very sporadic. So, as of 12/10/2022 USCIS is working 80% of cases dated 9/21/2021. 14.5-month processing - for uncomplicated cases. (I delete any approved, transferred, withdrawn cases from my roster). Number Message MsgDate Checked 2190139318 Additional RFE Sent 12/1/22 12/11/22 2190139323 Additional RFE Sent 12/1/22 12/11/22 2190139325 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139327 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139332 Name Was Updated 10/14/21 12/11/22 2190139333 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139372 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139373 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139377 Additional RFE Sent 12/7/22 12/11/22 2190139380 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139384 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139386 Additional RFE Sent 12/2/22 12/11/22 2190139387 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139388 Additional RFE Sent 11/28/22 12/11/22 2190139239 Additional RFE Sent 12/5/22 12/11/22 2190139244 Additional RFE Sent 12/2/22 12/11/22 2190139246 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139247 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139249 Additional RFE Sent 12/5/22 12/11/22 2190139250 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139251 Additional RFE Sent 12/3/22 12/11/22 2190139253 Additional RFE Sent 12/7/22 12/11/22 2190139263 Additional RFE Sent 11/30/22 12/11/22 2190139267 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139268 Additional RFE Sent 12/7/22 12/11/22 2190139271 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139272 Additional RFE Sent 11/28/22 12/11/22 2190139281 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190139149 Additional RFE Received 12/9/22 12/11/22 2190139155 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190139160 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190138979 Case Was Received 9/21/21 12/11/22 2190138980 Additional RFE Sent 12/8/22 12/11/22 2190138749 Additional RFE Sent 12/9/22 12/11/22

Ratio of "Case Was Received" and "Expedite Request Denied" seems to be the same prior to the first approval wave for a given month and beyond it.

Anytime between next week and January.

The approval range seems to be up to 3 months wide. It's as if each officer is given a set of cases to work on, and they do until finished, then they come get new ones. So, someone with a brand-new stack may be doing October ones while their colleague finishing the bottom of their old stack is still in August. + PTO, training levels, etc.

Just remember that expedite text is limited to 1,000 characters. Pick your words very meaningfully.

If you do not have legal disability and there is no diagnosis, how would you provide medical documentation necessary for the expedite to have a chance of success? I would focus on getting paperwork straight.

I've heard of cases with positive outcome. But they are exceedingly rare.

Well, it depends on which batch one's case ends up in. Currently, the first major approval wave is in 2290003000s. That's 23,600 petitions ahead of us as in 47 weeks at top USCIS speed of 500/week. Therefore, the luckiest of us are looking at November 2023 while the majority would be in 2024.

Yes. I'm going to start masking last 2 digits though going forth.