Lynxyonok

There is a wave of denials during the initial submission, and there is yet another wave of denials related to RFEs. Nowadays, 1 in 3 cases catches an RFE, and 1 in 3 those catches a denial. Lawfully app disagrees... I will wait to see until it does. #inevitable

I'm literally right next to you. The "expedite denied" on the Valentine's day one.

It's scary how in 2023 we can't even see or update our applications online. I mean, USCIS scans every file in from the get-go. So, it's online already. Just not for peasants (us). $535 paid to be denied basics.

Congratulations to everyone approved. To everyone else (including myself), stay strong...

There are over 3,500+ cases still piled up from pre-May 2023. And there are just as many RFE's waiting to be answered. I'm not American by birth, and that's one part of this culture I can't accept to date: not having the courage to tell someone "no" - leaving them wondering and guessing for months after the fact instead. I mean, there are September 2021 cases still being actively adjudicated this week! I so feel for the people going through this mental BDSM - and I'm so terrified I'm about to be one of them myself. My week's cases are 40% approved - and there are plenty of approvals from cases 2 weeks past mine...

It is extremely tough. Frankly, by now realizing that VJ is a commercial entity, I am surprised there aren't any ads for psychological help, for heavens know, we (still waiting to be adjudicated) all need it by now. It's so mind-boggling to look at people around oneself and realize that one of them might hold the power to choose whether to let you be happy or not. Remember, some phases of the process rely on offices outside of California. Stay strong. I've pretty much put my entire work-free life on hold, devoting it only to communication with my special other and to checking cases statuses. ... I'm pretty sure I'm voting against every incumbent during the next cycle. For no human should go through this.

Looking at a lot of clean-up by USCIS thus far. Seems like cases are touched sporadically, while the tail-end of remaining 2021 cases are starting to pick up denials left and right. May cases are wavering around 30% approval rate so far, but it's very scattered. Fortunately, I haven't noticed much activity by the "additional RFE sent" officer in our month just yet, nor by "initial and additional RFE sent" officer. Those are brutal. Yes, after so much case-crunching, I feel like I can spot signatures of individuals. 😅

We will prevail, outlast, and succeed. And one day we are all going to meet in NYC and toast to the fact that we made it. And we will make it so much further. Mic drop.

It was so mesmerizing. Around 11 eastern (CSC opening timeframes), May 13th started to get touched. Around 2pm, Telegram chats reported May 16th. By business end, May 19th filers were speaking up on Facebook and whatnot. It's like a fine toothcomb went through the pile, carefully plucking every 8th case or so. The last time I was so on edge was during the last presidential election.

What a day. USCIS touched pretty much every week in May today, sending hopes sky-high by mid-morning and numbing a few hearts by late afternoon as approvals rolled towards May 19th and beyond, but only for very select few.

Oh man! The face one makes when a case just one number ahead of theirs gets approved. At the last moment on Friday, too. That's me right now #cliffhangerweekend

P.S. I'm starting to notice that USCIS pages become magically available after 8pm EST / weekdays or during late afternoon on Saturdays. As in, after Cali Service Center wraps up work.

It was for a while. Up now.

Oh boy. First, thank you for the citation. It helps to know that people pay attention to one's work. Here's a painful moment to acknowledge, though. What I said wasn't a range from May 2nd... to whatnot. What I should have said (and I may or may not have yet) was, USCIS is carrying a quagmire of 11,500+ cases prior to May 2022. So, each opportunity they have to adjudicate a case has a sizeable chance of being wasted (and apologies to pre-May, 2022 files here) on a case that's not from this (May 2022) month. In fact, I see regular activity among 2021 cases with brand-new, day-old timestamps. I am on your side; I am a May 2022 filer praying and hoping to be approved anyday now. But. There's a mountain-level wave of filers ahead of us with just as many hopes and prayers. Stay strong. Stay brave. Remember that scene in "Patriot" where militia is asked to hold the line? Hold it.

Just a reminder that USCIS has been expanding their approval / action ranges to the widths unseen before. Yes, there was a case from May 11th approved in the past 48 hours. And there was a case from September 13th, 2021, that received an RFE in the past 48 hours as well (WAC2190135252, if anyone would like to verify...) This means that a 12-month-old case has the same chance of being acted upon as an 18-month-old one. Overall, my earlier theory of easier cases being processed sooner than later does seem to hold true. Because 2021 ones are now getting mostly denied, but not always. Stay patient, my friends. Stay lucky.

Seems so. Main wave is still around April teens though.

It's so beautiful and scary. A few filers past May were able to get into Mexico and cross illegally. They are now with their petitioners. To what ends though? Many more were turned around. Sometimes right at the airport. This world just doesn't feel real at times anymore. But we press on. For those who matter to us. Because... Because. That's why.

So, as a mid-May filer, I expect the first chance of a decision around mid-July. The first chance means that USCIS takes +3+ months to review some cases, presumably those they find difficult; some linger even further. A decision also carries a 1:3 chance of an RFE. Here's a current recap of open cases; a disclaimer, my research is manual, so it may be delayed compared to those with auto scripts.

There's a Facebook one, but if you don't speak Tagalog, you're going to be booted very quick, personal experience 😅

Several months ago, I added my foreign fiancée as an authorized user on one of my credit cards. The intent was for her to have access to money during the interview process as well as to prove to airlines that she does indeed have a card that tickets are bought with. Fast-forward to now... The bank reported to a credit agency that someone else "lives" with me. That agency reported to my car insurance company that there is an "extra" driver. The car insurance: - served me with a bill, as my fiancée is now showing as residing with me despite living 8,000 miles away - served me with a non-renewal notice, as I had exposed them to unnecessary risks Yes, it is that archaic for companies not to realize in 2023 that: - not every family is limited to one set of four walls - not every adult will drive But, as Russians say, translated, that's how it is. Be safe, and be careful folks...

Hope you feel better - I'd post a "care" emoji" if one was available. How are you handling "document was mailed" and "notice explaining USCIS actions was mailed" statuses? Seems like while most of those cases go into a death spiral, about 1 in 5 do come back, some even with approvals (although usually with an RFE). Thoughts? Also, how are you catching cases being reopened?

So, it's extremely simple. All open cases divided by the fastest processing monthly speed. E.g., I'm a mid-May filer, and the first wave of cases is about 11K ahead of me. Looking at Q1 2023 USCIS data for support, I thus establish: Q1:8509 4M:11345 4.1M:12054 4.2M:12763 4.3M:13472 5M:14182 Q2:17018 I.e., it takes a quarter to touch 8509 cases, 4 months - 11,345, 4 months and a week -12,054, etc. A concern though is that the approval trough is so wide. So if one isn't lucky (wave 1, 4 months out), they may be in the rearguard, 6+ months out.

An even further delay. It's proving harder to wait.

It will in the long run - in the short run they just need to show that changes are taking place. It's puzzling to see expedites for November 2021 cases being shot down while February 2022 cases are being approved. Something's off. Not to mention that Q1 2023 numbers' release was delayed by 3 months - that's a new record for USCIS, the previous longest delay being half of that. It's as if they know their new methods are going to work and they just need to survive long enough for them to get established. In the meantime, anything goes - even denial rate is up (and cases are routinely reopened after they'd been shot down).