Oregonian97

That's true. So I wonder if those are counted as part of the rejected then. If they are, that makes sense.

It's not a crazy difference but theres still a weird gap. Sometimes it's more, and sometimes it less than it should be. Weird

I included the approved + denied as part of my "completed" number. Still doesnt add up

What's weird is when you look at the quarterly data, the numbers don't add up. Like take the (received- completed) for a certain quarter, and add that to the last pending backlog number from the previous quarter, and it does NOT equal the same as that quarter's backlog. Something funky in how they are calculating it......

It indirectly affects the backlog in that it will make case processing slower since USCSI officers spend time on RFE's. As far as the ACTUAL backlog number, no impact since it doesn't reduce pending case count. I see RFE numbers merely just numbers showing how many cases got delayed.

My understanding (and I might be wrong), is that there are a good chunk of people that don't get to NOA1. They get rejected right at the start for not meeting requirements, or not providing a check, whatever it is. Those cases don't get a case number and thus can't be tracked. USCIS still reports those cases as rejected. We never see them in case tracker cause they never make it there. These don't have an impact on backlog either.

The reason is actually straight forward. In the quarterly report, about 33% of applications get rejected, but we know the trackers show approval % of 90+. This is because there is a good chunk of applications that get rejected right at the start. These are not shown in our data tracking, but it's captured in USCIS's quarterly data. If you takeout 75% of the rejected number and add to the "approved" numbers, should come out about right. So unfortunately we are not underestimating.

Im optimistic that by the end of this quarter there will be a clear trend in where processing times are going. If we see an improvement to 1000 cases net backlog reduction a week by April, I would think that anyone who applied in late '22 should be hearing back about the same month they applied a year earlier.

But that's including RFE's right? not net backlog reduction

Lmao.

How do we really provide any wedding plans when we have no clue on the dateS? Seems counter intuitive.

So it's usually just going to be evidence that relationship still going on? So probably pictures and tickets?

But it still mentions that below. Which report are you referring to? https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs

Nice! my NOA1 September 9th.

when did you file?

We should not look at RFE's. I would consider RFE's as merely a notification. The approval/denial numbers already take that into account and are the only thing that reduce backlog. Also, New RFE's are always being added, so you could argue when they finish one RFE, a new one is added in its place.

Do you all think 1,000 cases a week is at all possible sometime in the next 2 months? If we average that the next few months, backlog will be flushed out by end of year. Also, at this point in order for USCSI to meet their 6 month cycle time by Oct 2023, they need to average 1200 cases a week from now til October 2023.

I second this. Fiance visa's are a tiny portion. We've got to raise our voices to be heard among the others. Wrote to my senator today. Very easy to do and it was all online. Didn't take 5 mins.

Where is the best place to stay up to date on live info for weekly numbers? Is there another link other than the google drive doc? I am a September 2022 filer. Also- just wanted to point out that in USCIS's FY 2022 report, as of Sept 30 they were closing more cases than they received on an overall basis (not for each visa type). However some visa types were prioritized for reducing backlogs. As an example, the Naturalizations backlog was being reduced by net 130k cases a quarter at that time. (see below link) https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf If they get rid of that backlog and focus their resources to other visa types, they could abolish the Fiance visa backlog in a few months. However I know Fiance visa is not their priority and they are balancing their resources with other visa types. We should all complain to our senators. I have heard they actually do listen sometimes to these types of complaints. Sadly with these wait times, it feels like it's easier to get to the US illegally via Mexico than doing things the right way. The government should be doing more to promote legal immigration. Frustrating