Nikobe

How is a 1k week not a great week anymore? 😅 I know you are all eager to have those 2k weeks, but let's keep it realistic. This and last week are by far (!) the best weeks since 2021.

I will be kind of random here but I estimate August.

Let's see what happens. I am a May filer, I am still positive but used to disappointment. Maybe that is why I still have doubts about what is happening in the past few days (200+ daily updates, when I am used to celebrate 80).

That would be nice but it is normal to see random approvals (e.g. expedites etc.) and the 4 approvals that you are referencing are in the group, which also contains November files, so I am not really trusting that progress until they touch other groups for December filers.

2 weeks until they touch December and at the current speed another 4 weeks until they touch January cases, so I'd say roughly end of March.

From the FB group: Monday, 30 January 2023: Approved: 113, RFEs: 37, RFER: 4, Withdrawals: 2, Notice: 1 Very much in line with last week.

25% is one in four 😉

I assume that the USCIS does quite some filtering as to what they perceive as straightforward cases (for the most part European beneficiaries and petitioners without criminal history and no previous marriages on either side) and more complicated cases (countries with historically high risk of immigration fraud etc.) but again, this is just my assumption and opinion. As you mention, nobody really knows why these 200 cases in August for instance "deserve" this treatment.

There is quite an observable pattern that USCIS starts new months when the previous month is around 1,100-1,200 unopened cases (they did this for Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov for sure). As there are still roughly 2,500 unopened for November, I would not expect any significant changes for another 25 business days (i.e. five weeks following an opening rate of 250 cases per week for November alone). This means that December cases would be opened at a processing time of roughly 15 months. I hope that this makes sense and would like to express that this solely my observation by regularly scanning through the forum without any own script.

The spreadsheet needs an update. They opened roughly 560 cases within four days (Monday was a day off).

You already are. You said in August that processing will be around 18 months by now, it is easy to not be proven wrong if nobody fact checks you. 🤠 Here is the video you based your views on:

I know your source, so why are casually leaving out the processed cases from 2022? Out of every 100 cases sent to USCIS, they will deny roughly 10 right when they arrive due to obvious flaws (missing money, etc.) - you cannot leave out these cases. Please at least put an asterisk to your flawed piece of data. If I was your statistics professor, I would fail you right here.

Unfortunately, I do not quite understand where you're trying to get with this. The WAC numbers are used by USCIS to trace all cases back to (a) its service center and (b) have a unique code for each case. There is nothing special about it and nobody ever said that the WAC numbers are exclusive to I129F. The first figures relate to the financial year, which starts in October. They are currently processing October cases, so nothing special there either. There's most certainly adjudicators that are specialized in certain visa categories and get assigned I129F and other family-based applications. Others are specialized in other categories. You're in the middle of the current processing backlog right around the 8 months mark. Your case will most likely not be adjudicated before July next year. That is the bitter truth that can change slowly or rapidly, one way or the other.

You are looking at roughly 90 days from NOA2 to the Consulate receiving your case. https://www.visajourney.com/times/k1-fiance-visa-historical/

There were nine approvals for October in the week of Nov 7-11 and four approvals in the last week. Approvals were in the 2000, 2500, 5500, 6500, 7500, 11000, 11500, 12500 groups. These are random approvals, so they have not yet started October.

They started touching September cases at roughly 1,000 untouched cases of August filers. Fair to say that after roughly the next 10 business days, we will see October cases being processed. On the flip side, October has 1,000 cases more than September, so it will take them 40 business days (due to the holidays probably rather 50) to get down to 1,000 cases for October. All in all, I expect processing time to be 16 months by end of December/beginning of January.