Bh_sarah

Oh wow, I didn't think of searching for anything happening in SoCal. Makes sense people stayed home and safe. The warning remains in effect so it might reflect on today's numbers too.

Absolutely. The first thing that came to my mind was that they all had to go to a training or lecture and were probably all pissed off because they couldn't be productive that day (I usually am when I need to go to some useless meeting haha). Wish we had a double agent to come here and tell us what's going on there! Hoping today's number proves to us yesterday was just an anomaly.

Lawfully tells me only 48 cases were completed yesterday but sometimes their number goes up throughout the day so can’t trust the morning ones. They also don't count withdrawals or rejections, just approvals, denials and terminations. I will wait for Obllak’s precise data to confirm. But to me it was a really bad day across all months, hoping it’s just a system delay or that they catch up during the week.

Today's numbers [March 27th, 2023] Now the complete ones! Not a lot of activity, but some activity nonetheless. 46500 - 3 RFEs 47000 - 1 withdrawal 48000 - 1 approval, 1 denial (from an expedited) 48500 - 2 approvals, 3 RFEs 49000 - 3 approvals, 2 RFEs 49500 - 1 approval 51000 - 2 approvals 51500 - 1 approval, 1 withdrawal Today's numbers: 10 approvals, 8 RFEs, 1 denial, 2 withdrawals Monthly totals: 283(+10) Approved 280(+1) Denied/Rejected 90(+7) RFE/RFERs 2711 Other Action/Untouched 115(+2) Withdrawals Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15yTdQDjmS6ik3bPNGmThSc0jFUszsiGcXurI1hT_Jcw/edit?usp=sharing

Sorry, posted by mistake partial numbers!

That assumption of expedited cases being processed right away also proved wrong to me, at least in some specific cases, probably still true for the majority. Maybe for the Ukrainians back in Feb 22 it was true. But not everyone that has an expedited request approved is that lucky, which is super weird to me since their expedited did get approved, so they must have an emergency. Just an example, from my tracked expedited Feb 22 cases so far: there's one case that got their expedited request approved on April 2022... not a movement after that. Also 2 other approved expedited cases that got an RFE months after they were approved. These RFEs never became an RFER and this was many months ago as well. Also some cases that got their expedited request approved early in 2022 but only got their approval now on March, 2023... So many requests still handing with no approval for the expedite. I can't seem to find a pattern for those, some expedite reasons may be stronger than others. We're all left at USCIS' mercy.

Looking at Obllak's spreadsheet since it has the precise numbers: 486 untouched + 484 RFE + 145 RFER + 95 pending = 1210 cases left.

What?! Congratulations!!! ❤️ I remember talking to you in the February thread but had no idea you got approved, you didn't post anything there haha best of luck to you and your Brazilian fiancé when it comes to NVC and embassy phase!

Man... I went through that too as you can see on my post (was typing it for the last 5 min and that's why I didn't see yours first). You do say the K1 makes more sense to your relationship now and I get every couple has their specific preferences and situations. You do need to put it on paper the implications of pursuing CR1 now and see it it's worth for you to abandon K1. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. Just don't feel pushed to do it just because people keep saying it's the superior visa (and even mock people for choosing K1).

Oh I am so glad I am not the only one. I won't lie, I got into this process knowing I wouldn't be able to work or earn a penny for months but wasn't aware of not being able to drive and other minor restrictions. It was also 8 months for NOA2 when I filed so the sudden increase (that doesn't stop increasing) also made me doubt myself and wonder why we didn't just get married, especially seeing some people recommend spousal visa so strongly. Made me feel bad for choosing K1. But... Thinking about it after some time... It was the right choice for us. We were ready to get married the moment he proposed, but also we still strongly believe in marriage and it would kill us to be married and stay 2 years apart. Maybe it doesn't matter to some people, but being engaged and apart is better to me than being married and apart. Marriage by proxy online was *never* a choice for us, same as just a civil, city hall wedding. The wedding can be small (and it will probably be), but our family needs to be present and there must be some meaning to it, vows and celebration, not just a civil agreement. And that would take us months to arrange and delay our process even more. I made drastic changes in my life to save money to get through AOS, and I guess some people would happily add a few months to the process just not to go through AOS, but we have maybe a silly idea that we don't mind going through that as long as we're together. Covid restrictions already made us spend too much time apart. Every couple has its preferences and know what is best for them, and I agree that it's easy to say now spousal visa is the best one in terms of time/costs/having a green card from the start. It depends on your situation to be fair, we aren't super worried on having one income because that's the plan when we have kids, and visa costs going up doesn't stress us, we'll do what we have to do. A green card was never the goal to me either. But sometimes people forget an engagement (a promise to marry) doesn't even compare to a marriage. There are so many legal and physiological implications to it. I know the anxiety and frustration I am experiencing right now would be way worse if we were already legally married, but maybe I'm just biased because I chose K1? Hahah

I don't scan March even though some on range 56000 are early March filers. I saw some approvals last week in March and April through the Lawfully statistics page. They even give you the receipt number, I scanned those individually and they were straight approvals, not expedited, but they only show you stats from the last 3 days so I think the ones I saw are gone now. Another proof they do not work in order, there are cases being approved in February since the start that there aren't expedited ones. I started tracking them on May 2022 and counted 22 cases like that before they even stated working in January 2022.

I may be assuming things and I might need to take a look on recent data, but I would take in consideration the fact that US is probably the country that most receives and processes immigration cases in the world, counting immigration visas + non-immigration visas and refugees. Not even talking about people abusing the system or trying to enter the country illegally. It may take patience and it’s super bureaucratic (honestly like most federal agencies in the world) but the volume of cases they process every day is hard comprehend. So as much as I’d love for them to work faster and be more transparent about their process or even remove or review some policies, I agree they are indeed working and US does offer you a pathway to immigrate if you have a good reason to, unlike other countries.

I don’t think they are skipping people, they have different agents working on different ranges. They don’t work in perfect order, it is not a drive-thru. Some agents are quicker than others. Some cases are quicker and easier than others, but that doesn’t say anything when it comes to cases being left behind. If you look at the numbers I posted from Friday, you’ll see the main activity is around Feb 7th. Doesn’t mean they skipped all those before the 7th. I’m a Feb 22nd and some cases filed after me were approved. Some March cases have been approved! People from January and December are still waiting too. Our time will come

Sorry, let me just correct that I said because I think my "huge portion" was a communication fail from me. I checked Lawfully earlier today to check on yesterday's completed cases. They completed 137 cases per Lawfully on the 23rd. The bigger portion *of the graph* was activity on 2021 cases prior to December, including one completed case filed in Feb 2021, even though the biggest activity was on January and February 22 (the majority of completed cases were filed in these months). And since Lawfully provides the case number, I looked them all up and all cases completed from February 2021 to July 2021 were denials, most of them from RFER but some straight denials as well, though I won't remember the exact number. Rooting for you too, but as I said, I'm biased! haha and no need to thank me at all. mw & rg is the one deserving of any praise for the work here, I basically just pull data from already written scripts and apps. Hope you get your approval soon as well! Tell your Brazilian fiancé I said "oi"!

Today numbers [March 24th, 2023] Great day for range 49500! 46500 - 2 approvals, 3* RFEs, 2 withdrawals 47000 - 7 approvals 48000 - 6 approvals 48500 - 6 approvals, 6 RFEs 49000 - 4 approvals, 5 RFEs 49500 - 13 approvals 50000 - 3 approvals 50500 - 1 RFE, 1 withdrawal 55500 - 1 withdrawal *One RFE from March 22nd that I forgot to consider (initial and additional evidence, uncommon case) Totals for today: 41 approvals, 15 RFEs, 4 withdrawals Monthly totals: 273(+41) Approved 279 Denied/Rejected 83(+15) RFE/RFERs 2729 Other Action/Untouched 113(+4) Withdrawals Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15yTdQDjmS6ik3bPNGmThSc0jFUszsiGcXurI1hT_Jcw/edit?usp=sharing

Haha oi! You will probably learn more sentences soon! Been trying to teach my fiancé too but it's not the easiest language. And I've been following your data for a while now as a Feb 22 filer (also have a tendency of rooting strongly for Brazilian fiancés couples!). Yes, comparing the numbers, it was definitely a denied case after a RFER for that one Feb 21 case, but some straight denials for May, June, July 21. They seem to be extending their range going back, it's also unfortunate how little they processed on months they should be actively reviewing though. There are so many cases left behind. I feel for you and for your RFER being untouched so far. I am afraid of getting an RFE as well and having my "clock" stopped too with no light at the end of the tunnel. Good thing you contacted your senator! Hopefully things will start moving forward soon for you.

Definitely will hit 1000 tomorrow! I was checking Lawfully too earlier today (though they don’t count withdrawals) and it seems they worked on a variety of old cases (even one from February 21). Unfortunately, from June and earlier it’s all denials but maybe they are also trying to get rid of some “ghost cases”. Hoping we see a even better week next week to end this month with a HUGE count of cases completed!!

Sorry, I didn't mean to diminish anyone waiting by saying it was just a bad day, I too am waiting even though not as long as you all. I understand it sucks they only approved 3 December cases yesterday. Clearly a terrible day for December approvals, I meant. But wasn't such a great day for any other month anyway (comparing to previous days this month). But we are seeing weekly and daily processing numbers increasing everyday. The main spreadsheet wasn't updated yet, but I looked at Lawfully and they completed 137 cases yesterday, a huge portion being from super old cases from up to Feb 2021 (though all are denials) and Lawfully doesn't count withdrawals on this. They are also sending a lot of RFEs (even if they aren't the quickest to make a decision from RFEs, means they are reviewing cases). The inquiry date is the worst scenario I can see. Not even being able to inquire is absurd, they definitely should change that. There's really little accountability and we're left at their mercy. Hoping for a better day for December today to end the week on a high note.

Wow. Terrible numbers for December and honestly not amazing numbers overall for November, January and February as well. Could they be working now on a wider range of months trying to clear backlog? I wish the August/September and October scanners were still active to be fair. Maybe just a bad day overall.

Today numbers [March 23rd, 2023] Small numbers, but progress nonetheless, especially because there's some activity on groups didn't touched yet this week, starting on the 50000s. 46500 - 1 approved 47500 - 7 approved, 1 RFE 48000 - 2 approved, 5 RFEs 48500 - 7 approved, 2 RFEs 49000 - 2 approved, 2 RFEs 49500 - 4 approved, 1 RFE 50000 - 2 approved (1 from an expedited case) 50500 - 2 approved, 1 RFE Totals for today: 27 approvals, 12 RFEs Monthly totals: 232(+27) Approvals 279 Denied/Rejected 68(+12) RFE/RFERs 2785 Other Action/Untouched 109 Withdrawals Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15yTdQDjmS6ik3bPNGmThSc0jFUszsiGcXurI1hT_Jcw/edit?usp=sharing

Unfortunately, no one can say when your case will be approved since every case is unique and USCIS doesn't do things in perfect order, but they did touch your range (47000) and cases near your NOA1 date for the past 3 days, so it could be soon. But it can also be in 1 or 2 months, no one really knows. All we know is that they started working on early February cases, but they also are working on January, December, November and earlier. See the numbers on the posts above you. I also keep a spreadsheet with approximate data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15yTdQDjmS6ik3bPNGmThSc0jFUszsiGcXurI1hT_Jcw/edit?usp=sharing

Thank you for everyone trying to figure it out here! This whole thing made me confused and going forward between "I got it" and "I literally don't understand anything" haha also having parallel conversations on WhatsApp about it while also trying to reply work emails left me all crazy. Seeing the numbers of cases processed daily, I think we shouldn't worry too much and just hope we're not left behind and if we do, that the processing times decreases so we can inquire sooner.

Oh wow. I have never thought about it, I always assumed they wanted to show how fast they are working so the 20% would be the "out of normal processing times" cases. But what if the 20% are the expedited cases or the ones that are inexplicably fast approved?!

Your NOA1 date is great, you're literally on the ranges they are working right now. No one here can tell you when you will get your approval because every case is unique, but should be soon based on the current data.

This is NVC, USCIS takes a few weeks to send the cases, these March 3rd cases are probably December or early January NOA2s they just received.