Yes, indeed you are correct about January 2024 being the month when we're allowed to query about our case, per most recent search results for our NOA1 dates. Last year, when I made the same search when we first got our NOA1 in July 2022, the "80% of cases completed within" range of months was 13 months, which would have put reasonable expectations for a response in the August/September 2023 range at the time. Since then, the "80%" range response increased to 16.5 months when I searched our NOA1 date, roughly suggesting late December 2023/early January 2024.
I might have misunderstood the content of search result, but regardless, if USCIS is indeed reviewing April 2022 petitions, August/September 2023 for us is welcomed, reasonable expectation.