Yeah the 2-3 months NVC case creation means they received the petition from USCIS. So if you received your NOA 2 mid October, the prediction is you might have a case # by mid Jan. 2023 at the most.
From my end I am expecting a case# by mid Feb. following that timeline. By logic, the most important thing is to get the case# generated. I mean, I don't see the petition going anywhere else aside from NVC. They do batch processing just looking at the approval style, which is why you will see Aug. that was approved around end of Oct. and some Aug. petitioners that got approved just yesterday (Dec.).