Crtcl Rice Theory
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Posts posted by Crtcl Rice Theory
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20 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:
Great point. Then why is it presenting opinion political editorials
They move ght say Because Trump is a danger to the public health in the case they laid out. They might ask why is the president interjecting politics, like masks, into a public health debate? You can never separate the two topics but in the case of covid-19 we entered new territory.
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10 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:
NEJM is probably terrified that its published Covid articles will draw fewer hits now that the Pres. has recovered and put the disease into better perspective. Gotta protect that impact factor, after all...
Yeah, nejm is a medical and academic journal. Entertainment Tonight and Trump tweets, not so much.
- Voice of Reason and laylalex
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6 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:
Which time?
Anytime
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25 minutes ago, Cyberfx1024 said:
Yeah the Russian bounties thing caused me to turn it off because that has been proven to be debunked and even Liberal journalists are tweeting that it has been debunked already
Help me, where was it debunked?
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2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:
Actually the doctor said he had met or exceed every requirement to be released
Yeah, we don't know what is doctor told the President, just the line the doctor told us.
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Pence is not fairing as well as he did against Kaine.
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21 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:
Here we go. I hope Pence can undo some of the bleeding. I always thought Pence did a great job on the corona virus briefings. A stable professional in contrast to Trump.
Two great debaters, Pence will definitely handicapped by the scenario for covid.
Thoughts and prayers Mike!
I luv luv Kamala's friendly looks at Pence like "oh I gotta hear this"
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1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:
Biden 2020, just wants to kill your paycheck, 401k, and economy. Winning??? Ok.
Cough cough
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Irony
"
A literary technique, originally used in Greek tragedy, by which the full significance of a character's words or actions are clear to the audience or reader although unknown to the character.
"
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52 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
Your thread says he's under 40, see the part in the title where it says "below 40%"?
Do you believe he's getting under 40? Or even within the margin of error of this poll? I
I didn't expect such triggeredness over one posting. It is one data point. What is interesting is the trend.
Define "he's getting"
Today? Well , look at the other polls this week.
On election day? Maybe. Could his numbers move? Probably. Could they move enough to win a plurality? Seriously doubt it. Majority? Maybe if Biden gets Coronavirus and dies. Electoral college? I don't see how.
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4 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
You're trying to tell me about how the election is going to play out based on polls that incorrectly predicted how the election would play out. Try and spin it as you like, I won't say definitely Trump will win, but I did take issue with the idea that he'll get under 40% of the irrelevant popular vote. It's your thread that you posted... you've defended these polls.. do you believe their accuracy? Is Trump getting under 40%?
I never stated he would get less than to 40%. I posted an article showing he was polling at a new low, three polls I saw today were in the same trajectory. If Biden is polling close to 50% and Trump closer to 40%, there is little opportunity for an electoral college win.
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4 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:
You can argue every day until your fingers get tired, and it won't matter. Only the election results will. Let's discuss this after Trump gets re-elected, eh?
That's no fun , don't you want to gloat once Trump wins?
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10 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
"let me try a triangle instead"
Clinton +5 with a +/- of 2.7 (2.3 - 7.7), actual result 2.1. Once again, outside the margin of error. And once again, incorrectly decided the election.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna678611
Like I said.. doesn't learn.
1 This is not Clinton v Trump redux.
The margins are different
The stability of polls are different
But go ahead and bet the mortgage money on Trump, the las Vegas odds are good. Maybe they will give you points.
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Days after being diagnosed with the coronavirus – a highly infectious airborne virus that has already killed over a million people around the world, the US president was out of his hospital bed.
Despite 12 of his inner circle already testing positive for the virus and presumably more to come, Trump was out waving at fans on Sunday. He returned to the White House last night from the hospital, mask-free again, claiming he might already be immune, despite his chief physician warning that he’s not out of the woods yet.Enter Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer, who decided to spend Monday night coughing through an interview with Martha MacCallum on Fox News, announcing that the science on Covid is in fact baloney, and with it the science on mask-wearing...
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Just now, Burnt Reynolds said:
In case it wasn't obvious with the evidence presented, I was saying it's you who's learned nothing, and clearly are learning nothing again. It's why you're citing polls in the same time frame early October (with the same pollsters who were so far outside the margin of error last time it was comical) but telling me about polls on election day (which this isn't) while simultaneously making conclusions about polls in early October.
Keep trying to jam that square into the circle hole.
Oh... there will be jamin'
Did you look up the election week polls or are you just going to let that data point slide?
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17 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
A poll, for say, presidential approval rating, is a snapshot because it represents something specific for that time. Election polling is an intent poll about how someone is going to vote in a future date. Might be a good idea to understand the difference.
Also, I applaud your certainty here in the bold, pretending like national polls mirrors state votes in light of how it didn't just this last presidential election. I definitely want it to remain come November, so, don't let this hinder you:
Clinton Holds 11-Point National Lead Over Trump: NBC/WSJ Poll
11 point lead, margin of error +/- 3.3 (7.7 - 14.3).. actual result, 2.1.
So you learned nothing.
What was the average polling gap between Clinton and Trump the week before the election? How did that vary from the actual popular vote? Nice Cherry picking tho.
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2 hours ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
That's not the way rebuttals work.
A poll is a snapshot and not a forecast. 1004 is the optimal accepted sample size. Increasing the sample size will not necessarily increase the precision or confidence in your snapshot. Taking more Polls and insuring the sample size
is random may increase the accuracy, but only for that point in time, which leads to the stability of the public's views.
Joe Biden has had a consistent lead when polled against Trump for three years, with the popular vote. When you get to 7% lead nationally, there is very little margin to overcome the popular vote nation wide in the swingstates to pull an inside straight with electoral votes.
Stagecraft and boat parades will not overcome how steady the Biden lead is. The President will not be reelected and if the NBC and Fox Polls holdup, you could see Ohio, Ga and Texas fall in Biden's column.
The die is cast, there are very few undecided voters to sway.
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2 hours ago, Burnt Reynolds said:
The understood point of polls is for them to reflect reality, especially when this sort of data is done for decision making. It's been proven from prior elections they don't reflect reality. From a data perspective, 800 people where there's well over 100 million registered voters is a garbage sampling for the entirety of the US (and that's not including the stratified sampling necessary to reflect realistic voting which isn't the NPV), so playing with what's clearly awful data doesn't make it more accurate (hence the MS Paint analogy). And like I said at the very start of the thread, those who really believe the pointless national popular vote is going to see Trump get under 40%, raise your hand.. and justify it. No one did, and that's because the whole point of this is to try and demoralize Trump supporters, it's not about reflecting reality. We know Trump has his own team of analysts, and their success from the last election. Guaranteed, while the Biden team is playing up the public one for PR purposes, unless they're certain they're going to lose, they have their own team too and are't relying on this pointless public polling.
That's not the way statistics work.
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3 hours ago, Dashinka said:
Is it random sampling? I would think the folks paying for a poll, especially a national poll regarding a presidential election which is meaningless, might have ways to skew the sampling.
"Skewing' the sample can be achieved many ways but that doesn't make the results wrong. They are just numbers.
The most useful thing about polls us to measure shift's in public opinion which you can do by using the same methods over a period of time. One would expect a lot if volatility right after that debate.
The polls are not meaningless, just another tool.
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You can preorder a $100 'Trump defeats COVID' commemorative coin at White House Gift Shop
Destined to become a collectors item
New England Journal of Medicine blasts Trump officials' response to virus, calls for new leaders
in Current Events and Hot Social Topics
Posted
How did the Democrats block travel from China?