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ebenf

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Everything posted by ebenf

  1. May filers of this year had a similar issue, USCIS resolved it 4-5 days later. They have a planned tool outage starting Wednesday and going until Friday, so it might be related to that: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/tools-outage
  2. Here is a link to the San Jose N400 timelines on Visajourney: https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/citlist.php?op6=All&op7=San+Jose+CA&op1=3&op2=&op4=1&op5=5%2C10%2C11&cfl= Go through the other pages and look for similar cases, only 1 on the first page is a i-751 + n-400 duel: https://www.visajourney.com/profile/345706-jad19888/ - looks like 5 month processing time from submission to interview.
  3. If you look at the Visajourney statistics for N400 cases, time between filing and interview has been increasing. Perhaps 30 days in the last two months. Digging into the data, this appears to be mostly driven by 3 years N400 cases. For N400s my suspicion is that USCIS tries not to let the pool grow too much in any given month. I think this because month over month USCIS data for filed cases and resolved cases appear to match closely. For 3-year marriage based N400s, which appear to be there own category, people filing starting in late March to now are the start of the COVID cases, so probably the cases filed will drop a lot meaning resolved cases will likely be reduced too. As such, seems like it will likely continue get slower by a few more months. Probably not too crazy of delays and probably closer to that 6 month mark / the USCIS target for most. Meaning 4-5 months after filing for interview notification.
  4. The timelines on USCIS are from filing to case resolution - so this includes the time between approval and oath + additional processing between the interview & approval + post oath. For the NYC office, that means that number is about 1.5 months over stated from when you would get an approval because you need to consider oath, additionally, you will get your notice about 30 days before (i.e. 1 month), and you can subtract out an extra 2 weeks for interview to approval and oath to finalization. Functionally, this means we can very roughly estimate about 80% of cases will receive a notification within 5 months of filing. To verify this hypothesis: I pulled the data from NYC from VisaJourney and analyzed the time between filing and interview date for the last 3 years and made a histogram and bucketed into useful the likely timeframes. The results are in the images attached. To put it simply, in New York City, you have a 77% chance of being scheduled for your interview within 95 days of filing your application on line. If we go to the extremes, we can also see the worse case scenario observed in Visa Journey data is around 180 days, or receiving a notice around 5 months after filing. So, the tactical data, at least from VisaJourney, is a lot better than the USCIS numbers would suggestion. That is, there is about 80% chance you will have your interview scheduled within 3 months and an extremely high likelihood you will have it within 5 months. My point is, crunch the data if you're really worried. The New York City USCIS Office seems highly proficient and I personally was impressed when I saw these numbers.
  5. Wife filed earlier in the week. Following the thread. ROE stilled required for the N-400. My wife submitted a request for a combo interview, fingers crossed. Best of luck everyone, and don't forget to study for the civics test.
  6. We managed to get through - confirmation was received that it was payment related & being worked on. Short communication, not too much more.
  7. My wife is trying to submit her N400 today, we're receiving the following message after we click "Pay and Submit." Anyone else have similar issues? Thank you,
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