Jason and May

Either they caught up preternaturally quickly, or responses to inquiries are all over the place....

I haven't heard of anyone receiving any interview letters for CR or IR whatsoever. What I have seen is this email I attached. Speculation is that wait times for interview wait times from DQ have lengthened from the previously oft-quoted 6 to 9 months to 12+ months from DQ. That said, no one seems to know much of anything. It's all been "I've heard," guesswork, and speculation. At least from my perspective, based on what I've seen. If you are able, save for a trip to see your wife, because you likely will need that renewal and time together during this time, while the Department of State continues to prioritize student, employment, and tourist visas, and USEM continues to quote "significant backlogs" of CR and IR cases (as top_secret mentioned above), which is probably true.

Where did you get this quote? I've seen this exact quote in another group, except the date was January 2023. I'm just curious. If beneficiaries have been waiting 2 years post-DQ for their IL, I would imagine there would be a lot more talk about this, but now my interest is piqued.

I agree. It absolutely depends on your federal district: Some districts will have substantial docket delays and some not so much. Some districts are very densely populated, some are not, etc. By rubber-band analogy, I’m referring to statutory interpretations of “within a reasonable time” and “unreasonably delayed.” The six-factor TRAC principles are (or should be) used to test unreasonable delay; however, courts have found these factors to be “hardly ironclad and sometimes suffer from vagueness,” and, likewise, “…function not as a hard and fast set of required elements, but rather as useful guidance insomuch as their roles may differ depending on the circumstances.” (Am. Hosp. ###’n, 812 F.3d, 189-190.) This has become known as a rubber-band test, because of the stretching of interpretation of “reasonable time.” Some courts deem more than 1-year unreasonably delayed, some 2, some more than that, depending on those various factors and circumstances of the TRAC elements, which are highly subjective and flexible or “stretchable.” Point being, there is almost no consistency in its application. Which, whether right or wrong, courts have deemed, as we see in the litigation citation, nearly impossible.

I’ve read the federal courts in 2023 had the highest level of mandamus filings ever, which has now created a substantial docket delay. But, if my wife remains DQ with no interview by August, 1 year from her DQ date, I have one hundred percent considered retaining an attorney to file a writ. Whether it goes anywhere, I guess, is a whole other issue, what with statutory interpretation of “reasonable time” being based on a rubber-band analogy. 😑

Those nonimmigrant visas, though.... DoS sure did prioritize them in 2023 and then shouted from the tree tops how great the U.S. is to visit, go to school, and work in, and how welcome and encouraged to apply tourists, students, and workers are, because they have the main priority of processing. So, meanwhile, USEM is issuing 50 CR1s in a month and nearly 14,000 tourist visas. So crazy to me.

I think, though, if we we’re talking a sweeping change in the Department of State in how visa interviews are processed, then we can’t look at only USEM. We would instead need to analyze all statistical data for every embassy. Which could be difficult, to say the least. I think if this is actually an issue up for debate as to reality, it might be best to inquire of USEM, the DoS, or a reliable immigration attorney how these interview dates are being processed and if what currently amounts to a is true.

What I personally think is: 1) The Facebook groups are dumpster fires 2) The OP of that post didn’t cite any credible source for their information beyond making sure to mention they have a visa consulting business (which could mean absolutely anything if it’s true) and they have “personally seen…” etc. “I’ve heard” is generally the lowest tier of unreliable. 3) I’ve noticed many posts in various Facebook groups intend to create fear and uncertainty through obvious disinformation. I have no idea what people get out of doing that. 4) If the Department of State were to lump all visa categories together and interview by PD for all categories, then K1s will be waiting years since certain family-based categories are issues based on lottery systems and allotted visas per year (at least that’s my understanding, anyway). I believe that’s one reason why they in fact do not operate that way. I can’t see any reason why they would do this, and I would love to know where the OP “heard” this. But…maybe it’s true. Anything is possible, I suppose, and nothing would surprise me at this point. If one of the members here posts a response that either affirms or discredits this, depending on the person who posts, I will invest much more in that response than the FB post, so I’m glad you posted this up here for response. Members here typically cite their sources of information and are far more credible. Just my .02. 🤙🏾

I suppose that's possible. Anything is possible. It doesn't seem plausible, though. Also, I'm generally significantly skeptical of most things I read in Facebook groups. There are so many people in those groups, and some people just spread mis- and disinformation. I have no idea what they get out of spreading disinformation. It's so weird to me. At the end of the day, I've adopted the stance that we just wait. Unless there is some statement issued by USEM or an email that someone posts along with their information (or some sort of hard evidence), I don't invest anything in what they share, because it's a crazy world and social media is a dumpster fire.

I feel you 100%, my friend.

Exactly zero information, aside from standard email replies. All monthly visa statistics indicate immediate relative visas are not--and have not been since the last auto-expedite--really being processed. Hundreds of student and fiance visas monthly. 13,881 B1 and B2 visas were issued in November; meanwhile, 51 CR1s and 134 IR1s--holdovers, I suspect, still being processed from the summer auto-expedite, were issued. That's where we're at. Happy waiting, my friend.

I understand that one, absolutely. What I meant by factors are factors such as the petitioner being an LPR, petitioners who do not file their petition for a lengthy period of time (for whatever reasons they might have), RFEs, delays in getting information to NVC, stale cases, and any other host of reasons a petition might be be drawn out. Insomuch as we have established the only factor that determines visa type is length of marriage, I go back to my original point: It’s very difficult to believe USEM typically issues triple and quadruple (sometimes more) numbers of IR1s monthly than CR1s based solely on case dynamics I formerly mentioned. Part of this negative skew of visas simply must be due to internal processing delays, whatever the reason for those delays. So, as of now, my perspective stands: many of us CR1 cases will likely roll over to IR1s by the time our wive’s interviews come about and their visas are issued, due to no reason other than USEM’s processing times.

I think we sure can…to some extent. While I understand there are many factors that go into a beneficiary’s visa type being CR1 or IR1, at the end of the day triple and quadruple the number of IR1s issued monthly indicate it is more likely than not the reason for the substantially higher number of IR1s is due—at least in part—to USEM’s inefficiency, not case dynamics. For example, in my wife’s case, we’ve processed everything fairly timely, and there’s a very good possibility that by the time she is interviewed, her CR1 will rollover to an IR1. That is my point. That said, I’m no expert here. I’m simply extrapolating data and applying what I view as logic. If you have procedural information you would like to share to correct my perspective, I’m always willing to learn new things.

We received the email today notifying us of the NVC case creation. I've been trying off and on over the course of the day to check the case status and see if we can set up the CEAC account and pay the bills. I continually get an error notice stating the server dropped the connection. In checking the VJ forums, it looks like this is a pretty routine issue, or at least CEAC being down/not working properly has been an ongoing and routine issue? I've attached a screenshot of the error message. (I get the same message via Safari and Chrome.) I'm using the URL https://ceac.state.gov/iv.

Hi all, I just have a question I thought I'd see if someone might have had experience with and can answer. My wife and I are in the process of her CR1 visa. She is from the Philippines and is residing there currently, while we await her visa. She was an overseas filipino worker, and she lived and worked in several countries over the years. So, we have started the process of gathering her PCCs so we are prepared when she ultimately gets to her interview. The one PCC we've run into some issues with is Qatar. We checked with the Qatar embassy in Manila, and we received from them instructions on how to apply for her PCC from Qatar. Qatar, however, requires as part of the application process a sundry fingerprint card. When my wife went to the Manila DFA to obtain her fingerprint card, she was told by staff she has to get an "endorsement letter" from the US Embassy in order to get her fingerprint card. OR wait for her "NVC" because her "visa hasn't been approved yet." The NVC thing doesn't make sense to me. I believe what they meant was she has her NOA 1--and she took that with her to the DFA--but her case is still processing and has not yet been transferred to the National Visa Center...? I've googled the endorsement letter issue. I've tried to reach the Philippine embassy in Chicago to ask about it and was unable to get an answer. If you've had any experience with this, could you please share with me how she should go about obtaining the endorsement letter from the US embassy or what the Manila DFA staff meant by her "NVC?" Thanks, all. Warmly, Jason