Interesting read. Of course there are a lot of opinions out there, and who really knows what will happen in the end, but I suspect in some way Iran's hardliners will be quelled.
Iran Is Running Out of Time and Options
As the negotiations in Islamabad between the U.S. and Iran have yielded no results and the April 22 ceasefire deadline approaches, the U.S. Navy has, as of Monday, April 13, established a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastal waters. Furthermore, as part of the blockade, the U.S. Navy is working to prevent vessels either flying under the Iranian flag or conducting trade with Iran from transiting the Strait or leaving Iranian ports, as demonstrated on Sunday, April 19, when the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, was fired upon as it attempted to sail through the Strait. The blockade intends to both deter Iran from controlling traffic and enforcing an illegal toll, while simultaneously depriving the IRGC of the economic means of continuing its war effort. As a result, Iran has threatened to target other Gulf ports to pressure the U.S. to relent, and also fired at tankers trying to transit the Strait after it previously said that it would not prevent commercial vessel traffic from transiting the Strait now that there is a ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Given how heavily reliant Iran is on the Strait for its economy, going beyond just oil exports, any amount of time that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to its ships will inflict substantial economic damage upon them, while simultaneously pushing its oil storage facilities to the brink. For the U.S., putting even greater pressure on Iran by blocking its access to the Strait of Hormuz, while working to ensure the security of all other vessels transiting it, may prove decisive in pressuring Iran to capitulate. However, the risk for the U.S. remains that the political will of those who support the current action being taken against Iran will continue to deteriorate the longer it takes and the more costly it becomes, especially at the gas pump. Simply put, it may become a race against the clock, since Iran doesn’t necessarily have to win; it just has to avoid losing.
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/04/21/iran_is_running_out_of_time_and_options_1177839.html