Hey all!
Big props to @XCindyX on brainstorming shared knowledge to come up with this little additional search method.
In the Google Drive information for each monthly timeline post, it was shared how to dissect NVC case numbers. Please correct me if I've misinterpreted this for cases later in the year with three digit Julian dates, but the formula seems to be this: Embassy code + year of case creation + Julian date the case number was assigned, plus 500 + case position.
To put into an example, if my case was assigned for the Johannesburg embassy in 2024 on April 1st (Julian date 92), and my case is first to be assigned a number on that day, my case would be JHN2024-592-001 (minus the dashes, just showing how the formula breaks down).
Why is this useful to know? Well it may help to understand that all visa cases sent to the embassies from the NVC, fit this formula. It's not just K1/CR1. Since we have the visa statistics from the Department of State website to show just how many visas of each type are processed monthly at each embassy, we can estimate how many a given embassy will accept and issue.
Granted it is entirely a guessing game to figure out which days the NVC issued case numbers for any particular embassy but at the very least, I was able to easily figure out what the statuses were for other cases on my day alone. Thinking I was in a good position in eighth for my day (008 at the end of my case), a quick search showed me that there is not 009 or above, meaning my case was in dead last for my date.
Searching my case number and altering the last three digits to 001-007, I additionally learned that I'm not alone in waiting. Initially our three month wait at NVC made me think that there was something specifically wrong with us; at the very least, this confirmed that there were a variety of statuses for the same wait time. Of the eight of us, three cases were ready and two were in transit. Our case and two others (positions 003 and 004) were still sitting at NVC.
Again the whole process is incessantly opaque, but what this at least attempts to do is demonstrate how complex the selection process can be. Factoring in all the visa types/priorities/regional quotas, it is difficult to read when a visa case will move out of the NVC. But we're all in this process together, and where our case sits ultimately is at the whims of many factors, all requiring patience and hope that we'll break the line soon.