I wanted to provide my analysis of the USCIS activity recently. There has been a significant reduction in case activity starting around mid-June. The average number of cases per week from 04MAR to 10JUN is 1685 per week. The week of Easter and Memorial Day had 20% reduction as you can imagine.
Since 10JUN the number of cases reviewed is 768, greater than 50% reduction. This week (22JUL) look like the lowest number of cases reviewed. So far through Wednesday, the number is 136 reviewed. If I had to guess, I would say summer vacations at USCIS California are to blame. It is nice weather anytime in SOCAL but really nice this time of year. Good for them as everyone needs a vacation. Bad for us that have petitions that need approval.
That part of the state (between LA and SD) is beautiful and the surf must be up. Everyone is at the beach while we are hitting re-fresh every 2.3 seconds to see if our case is approved. Good luck to everyone, especially if you applied in Mar/Apr 2024.
EDIT: Let me also add that the average time NOA1 to NOA2 for VJ members is 64 days for March filers, 54 days for April filers, 39 days for May filers. I filed 13JUN and I am at 41 days today and USCIS has not begun to review cases filed in June. So I suspect June filers to be back up to the 50~70 days again. That is if everyone comes back from vacation sober.
There are a significant number of VJ members so the sample size is significant to approximate the overall population provided the VJ members entered the data correctly and not make any typos.