again, experience can vary. If I were in this situation, I would renew as just because you get your NOA2 in the mail saying that your petition is approved and will be sent the DOS/NVC - it can take weeks before they receive it in and enter into the system and create your case number which will be based on the embassy at which you will file. For example mine was BNK2025XXXX. I kept sending inquiries every other week after waiting a few weeks, did the email update suggestion as well, then I think it was around 5 weeks or so, I got the case number, the packet 3 and 4, and the K1FTP which listed the embassy, the original petition receipt number (WAC) and instructions on next steps. Then I was able to create the profile in USAtraveldocs, pay the fee, schedule the appointment, and start putting together the timeline for getting the police background check and medical. these all took time and I had to do them in order as she needed to start her vaccines, then go get the police check, we paid an expedite fee and got it in about 5 days, then once you have this we were able to schedule the medical. The police in Thailand will not start the paperwork for you until they see you have an appointment and case number and the confirmation of appointment, and the medical exam will not allow you to schedule until you have your case number and police report. So there are many timings that you need to factor in. Hopefully there are some folks with recent Japan experience.