This is how Hillary Clinton will come back and win the nomination...

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

She could counter Tuesday's blowout with two big blowouts of her own in the next two weeks. This could undo most of the damage done by her big loss in North Carolina, and put her back on track.

West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania's twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania's twelfth by 46 points. A recent Rasmussen survey put her up 29 points in the Mountaineer State, with 17% undecided. Another poll had her up 40 points, with Obama under 25%.

Kentucky is not as poor or as white as West Virginia, but it is nearly so. Demographically, Kentucky falls somewhere between Ohio's sixth congressional district, which went for Clinton by 45 points, and the seventeenth, which went for her by 28 points. A recent Survey USA poll of the Bluegrass State had her up 34 points - with a staggering 72 point lead in the east, where Obama was winning less than 20% of the vote. Rasmussen recently had her up 25 points with 13% undecided.

Courtesy of the perspicacious Sean Oxendine, here's a graphical representation of how Appalachia has performed. The deepest blue represents countywide Clinton victories of 30+.

As Oxendine says in his analysis of Indiana and North Carolina: "Appalachia didn't budge [on Tuesday]. She is going to absolutely blow him out of the water in West VA and KY."

If these states turn out in the same margins that states since March 4th have averaged, that would imply a net of about 290,000 votes for Clinton. That puts her within striking distance of a reasonable popular vote victory. "Over" will be over as we turn our attention to Puerto Rico.

There are good reasons not to take Puerto Rico lightly, even though the press has continued to do exactly that. I would note: (a) Puerto Ricans vote in large numbers (2 million in the last gubernatorial election); (B) Puerto Ricans have never had this important a role in United States presidential politics; © Puerto Rico's politics is focused at least partially on how (if at all) to adjust its relationship with the United States; (d) Puerto Rico's is an open primary, and the residents of the Commonwealth, who are United States citizens, do not see themselves as Republicans or Democrats.

The inference I draw is that Puerto Ricans could turn out in huge numbers. If they do, and they swing for Clinton in a sizeable way, the popular vote lead could swing, too. Add 290,000 votes from West Virginia and Kentucky to 250,000 votes from Puerto Rico, account for expected losses in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, and you get Clinton leading in many popular vote counts, some of which are really quite valid. If she has one of those leads when the final votes are counted on June 3rd, the race will go on to the convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horserace...uite_yet_1.html

[almaty 19]

lol..bullsh!t....the writer should have his azz kicked for writing this fantasy ...

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

lol..bullsh!t....the writer should have his azz kicked for writing this fantasy ...

Which part of it strikes you as fantasy?

[Dan J 277]

Im trying to figure out how she is suppose to solve economic problems when she doesnt want to listen to "elitist" ecnomists. I guess she is selling hope of her own

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Im trying to figure out how she is suppose to solve economic problems when she doesnt want to listen to "elitist" ecnomists. I guess she is selling hope of her own

Anything in the authors analysis you disagree with?

It sounds plausible to me. The supers can be swayed by the popular vote.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Clinton Supporters Send Last-Ditch Obama Attack Emails To Supers

As the Democratic primary nears its long-awaited conclusion, undecided superdelegates have been drowned under a sudden deluge of angry, sometimes vicious emails from Hillary Clinton supporters urging them to not fall in line behind Barack Obama.

The letter writing campaign picked up steam late Thursday evening when several superdelegates confirmed that a coordinated effort had been launched, apparently independent of Clinton's campaign, to raise last-minute concerns about Obama's candidacy and present the specter of voter defections should the Illinois Democrat become the nominee.

...

At least four superdelegates on the receiving end of yesterday's emails suggested that they did more harm to Clinton's cause than good.

In one exchange, Donna Brazille, Al Gore's campaign manager and a stalwart of the Democratic Party, responded with frustration to a writer's threats of defection. "Honestly, this is the 9th email today," she wrote before 8:00 pm. "So I believe you're ready to not only destroy Roe versus Wade, voting rights, civil liberties and civil rights. Perhaps adding trillions more to the deficits through non-stop tax cuts to the wealthy and 100 more years in Iraq. Yes, please join Rush and McCain asap. The train has left. Catch it."

[Dan J 277]

Im trying to figure out how she is suppose to solve economic problems when she doesnt want to listen to "elitist" ecnomists. I guess she is selling hope of her own

Anything in the authors analysis you disagree with?

It sounds plausible to me. The supers can be swayed by the popular vote.

Popular vote though is still a really weak argument.

Primaries are conducted a number of ways between all the states. Which will influence the turnout and popular vote counts for that state. Undoubtably, the first primaries, have lower turnouts than the later ones, when the race became much more contested.

She can claim she is ahead in the popular vote, but can she really prove that the popular vote as determined by the primaries is actually accurate.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Also, the primary vote count doesn't include many caucus states. To me, that is a fatal shortcoming of that particular metric.

[Sheriff Uling 3]

Im trying to figure out how she is suppose to solve economic problems when she doesnt want to listen to "elitist" ecnomists. I guess she is selling hope of her own

Anything in the authors analysis you disagree with?

It sounds plausible to me. The supers can be swayed by the popular vote.

I have heard that argument presented by the pundits. However, those pundits were hardcore republicans who want to see this race last as long and well fought as possible. No matter what Sen Clinton and Sen Obama say, this strain will have, at the least, a short term effect that the winner will have to overcome.

[no name 1]

And yet, she's still getting new SDs and another...

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yes, but Senator Obama is getting more supers. She needs to be shrinking his lead to win, instead the lead just keeps getting bigger.

[no name 1]

Yes, but Senator Obama is getting more supers. She needs to be shrinking his lead to win, instead the lead just keeps getting bigger.

Where *IS* the good ole Reverend?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

[LaL 418]

Yes, but Senator Obama is getting more supers. She needs to be shrinking his lead to win, instead the lead just keeps getting bigger.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

And yet, she's still getting new SDs and another...

Another? That was a SD announcement from Wednesday. The day where Obama gained 4 and Hillary none (since she gained one and lost one to Obama that day). She's done, dev. Can you still not see it?