Contrary to reports, the nation's economy is robust

[GaryC 7]

Contrary to reports, the nation's economy is robust

Conrad Velin

Special to The Appeal

November 16, 2007, 4:01 AM

What with the relentless talking down of the economy for the past several years - by a variety of pundits, politicians and, of course, the mainstream media, all of whom continue to blame President Bush for every problem on the face of the earth (remember Katrina and the recent fires in California?) - one might think that a recession in this country is imminent, if not already upon us. Barring some global geopolitical crisis, however, nothing could be further from the truth. So what are we to believe? How about facts.

For starters, professional economists describe a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth. The last two quarters have seen GDP grow at a strong 3.8 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. Granted, GDP measurements are lagging indicators, but if we were to assess only this key measurement, we are nowhere near a recession. The economy continues to grow nicely.

Indeed, many experts argue that given the current problems within the real estate industry, as well as the record high global energy prices (driven higher by a strong global economy), these consistently strong numbers speak volumes about the continued resiliency of this economy.

In point of fact, our economy has taken hit after hit after hit in the last six or seven years, and continues to plow ahead - all the while generating record federal, state and local tax revenues in each of the last three years. So much for the Bush tax cuts being disastrous for revenues and the economy. Predictably, the opposite has occurred, including record corporate tax receipts as a result of the strong economy, which has been helped considerably by those very tax cuts that people love to hate. I say predictably because the exact same thing happened after the tax cuts enacted during the Reagan and Kennedy administrations.

Other key economic reports point to a strong and resilient economy, including strong and sustained job growth (helped in part by high exports), very high productivity (4.9 percent in Q3 - highest in four years), low unemployment (averaging 4.5 percent in 2007, and the lowest sustained rate of unemployment in each of the last four decades), low inflation, very low interest rates, record home ownership, sustained consumer spending, wages up a strong 3.8 percent over the past year and, of course, record (or near record) global stock markets.

President Bush recently noted that the nation just experienced its 50th consecutive month of uninterrupted job growth, the longest in the nation's history. This is even better than the media-vaunted Clinton economy of the late '90s, which was a bubble economy if there ever was one. To be sure, the reason this economy continues to do exceptionally well year after year is because U.S. companies really have been earning record profits year after year - as opposed to the thousands of firms that never made a dime during the dot-com bubble of the late '90s (and ultimately went out of business as quickly as they began). You can be sure that if a Democrat had sat in the White House these past seven years, there would have been no end to the praise from the media and Democrats about this incredible economy.

Therefore, folks, despite all the gloom and doom being peddled to us by the mainstream media about this economy, the facts just don't support the hype. Recent polls show that more than 60 percent of those polled think that this country is heading in the wrong direction, and that President Bush has received poor marks for his handling of the economy. So what is the "right direction?" If these past seven years constitute a poor economy, I'd be very interested in learning what makes for a great economy.

http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/200711...INION/111160144

[Jasman0717 9]

It sure doesn't feel very robust to me.

[GaryC 7]

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I just wish November of 2008 would hurry up and be here already. This country needs to change its course soon.

[forchika 4]

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

I need to work where you work Gary C not robust for me where I am either.... Inflation is a MF....and is killing me....$3.99 for a gallon of milk over $3.00 for a gallon of gas and no overtime here

[GaryC 7]

I just wish November of 2008 would hurry up and be here already. This country needs to change its course soon.

Your right. We need some real conservatives in the white house and congress. Next year can't come soon enough.

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

I need to work where you work Gary C not robust for me where I am either.... Inflation is a MF....and is killing me....$3.99 for a gallon of milk over $3.00 for a gallon of gas and no overtime here

If your field is industry then come to Peoria. The job market is wide open here. The cost of living is low also.

[mawilson 2,133]

If your field is industry then come to Peoria. The job market is wide open here. The cost of living is low also.

I'd love to check out Peoria some day - maybe next year.

[Dan J 277]

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

The people really feeling a crunch right now are in home or finance industries. It should filter out into other industries over the next year or so. You should take all the overtime you can get and save it, it may not be around next year.

[GaryC 7]

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

The people really feeling a crunch right now are in home or finance industries. It should filter out into other industries over the next year or so. You should take all the overtime you can get and save it, it may not be around next year.

I think the hoopla over the housing market and the credit crunch is a paper tiger. The biggest factor in what our economy will be like in the future is whether the dems start running things and tax us to death. That is the quickest way to kill the economy.

[Jasman0717 9]

I have lost more money in the stock market this year than the last twenty combine

[Dan J 277]

It does to me. I have had the best 3 years of earnings in my life. Today I was told that I could have all the overtime I want at work also. It's going to be a great Christmas!!

The people really feeling a crunch right now are in home or finance industries. It should filter out into other industries over the next year or so. You should take all the overtime you can get and save it, it may not be around next year.

I think the hoopla over the housing market and the credit crunch is a paper tiger. The biggest factor in what our economy will be like in the future is whether the dems start running things and tax us to death. That is the quickest way to kill the economy.

Your luring yourself into a false sense of security. The problem is, that economic changes, especially big ones don't impact the entire economy immediately. It takes time to filter out. Thats why right now the effects appear to be limited, but i think over the next year it will become much clearer as to what industries will be feeling the squeeze.

A lot of recent economic growth was purely driven on the availability of easy credit. Its not going to be so easy anymore. Which means less goods and services purchased, and with that, lower sales for those companies. Low sales leads to job cuts, which further compound the problem.

But our situation is further compounded by a weak dollar since most of our goods are made overseas, this will make those goods more expensive and high energy costs which filter into everything from the cost of plastics (since they are petroleum based), cost of transporting goods (very few goods are made locally) and the cost for you to get around, to work or shopping.

We have not seen the end of it, but for you and your company, you may not see its effects until into next year.

[Jaseball 0]

Do you own property Gary?

[Jasman0717 9]

I just wish November of 2008 would hurry up and be here already. This country needs to change its course soon.

I did really well in the market when Clinton was in office so would see another leader like that. That doesn't mean I endorse Billery