Bush Budget Plans for Iran Attack

[russ 1]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

[Mags 112]

Okay, I ask that everyone play nice now or the sandpit will be put away for the Autumn. Thanks. Now go play.

[Ban Hammer 13,458]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

no, that's called disinformation. counter intel is aimed at catching/thwarting foreign intel services.

link

Okay, I ask that everyone play nice now or the sandpit will be put away for the Autumn. Thanks. Now go play.

mom, ionescu peed in the sandbox!

[Mags 112]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

no, that's called disinformation. counter intel is aimed at catching/thwarting foreign intel services.

link

Okay, I ask that everyone play nice now or the sandpit will be put away for the Autumn. Thanks. Now go play.

mom, ionescu peed in the sandbox!

Oh good grief, Tara my dear girl, I've told you before that the toilet is where you pee pee, you're NOT a cat. *waggles finger at Ionescu*

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

I don't think you need 20 years of experience to understand the point - that regardless of divergent opinion there's usually a consensus (in most things), and sooner or later someone has to make a decision and take direct responsibility for doing so.

and usually the person doing that is quite senior. and even then, that person may disregard the conclusions of the ones doing the real analysis.

Usually and May indeed. In a general context fine - but becomes rather murky when we take a look at the 2003 war, when it appeared that members of the general public were more clued up than the guys who made that decision.

[Caladan 19]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

There were a number of articles a while back speculating that the reason the U.S. was fooled by forged intelligence (the whole Nigerian yellowcake) and relied on faulty intel was due to pressure by the White House. Nothing overt like 'make up a lie' but more along the lines of 'who will rid me of this troublesome priest?'.... 'it's really important that we tie Iraq to al-Qaeda'... and people who said 'there is no tie' were ignored in favor of people saying 'there could be a tie and this trailer might be a WMD.'

[Caladan 19]

it won't eh? funny how i have 20 years experience in that field and you don't.

If you're saying that intel practice is 'everyone disagrees, so let's just pick whatever we think is right and politically expedient', then it's no wonder no one trusts intel.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

There were a number of articles a while back speculating that the reason the U.S. was fooled by forged intelligence (the whole Nigerian yellowcake) and relied on faulty intel was due to pressure by the White House. Nothing overt like 'make up a lie' but more along the lines of 'who will rid me of this troublesome priest?'.... 'it's really important that we tie Iraq to al-Qaeda'... and people who said 'there is no tie' were ignored in favor of people saying 'there could be a tie and this trailer might be a WMD.'

Which were borne out by the subsequent revelations that the whole thing was pre-determined. Unless of course the alternative is an international conspiracy against the WH - comprising all the various sources who came forward with basically the same story.

[Ban Hammer 13,458]

it won't eh? funny how i have 20 years experience in that field and you don't.

If you're saying that intel practice is 'everyone disagrees, so let's just pick whatever we think is right and politically expedient', then it's no wonder no one trusts intel.

quite simply, sometimes the youngest most inexperienced is right. it's the nature of it.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

it won't eh? funny how i have 20 years experience in that field and you don't.

If you're saying that intel practice is 'everyone disagrees, so let's just pick whatever we think is right and politically expedient', then it's no wonder no one trusts intel.

quite simply, sometimes the youngest most inexperienced is right. it's the nature of it.

Assuming of course that people reviewing the intelligence are doing so with a degree of objectivity before actually making a decision; rather than starting out with a decision and looking for things to support it.

[Caladan 19]

it won't eh? funny how i have 20 years experience in that field and you don't.

If you're saying that intel practice is 'everyone disagrees, so let's just pick whatever we think is right and politically expedient', then it's no wonder no one trusts intel.

quite simply, sometimes the youngest most inexperienced is right. it's the nature of it.

Sure, that can happen in any discipline. But surely they're right because they have good arguments for their interpretation, not for frivolous or political reasons, no? And if that's the case, isn't something like consensus relevant, or whether their interpretation stands up to scrutiny, important?

I mean, we're literally in a situation where the best American intel disagreed with the rest of the world, and the rest of the world turned out to be right. You're the expert -- what went wrong? Why should I trust these guys when they say they know where Iran's weapons are?

[Sinergy 3]

i'm still baffled how intel can be forged.

That is done every day. It is called counter intelligence.

no, that's called disinformation. counter intel is aimed at catching/thwarting foreign intel services.

link

Okay, I ask that everyone play nice now or the sandpit will be put away for the Autumn. Thanks. Now go play.

mom, ionescu peed in the sandbox!

Oh good grief, Tara my dear girl, I've told you before that the toilet is where you pee pee, you're NOT a cat. *waggles finger at Ionescu*

Charles locked the bathroom door and wouldnt let me in when you gotta go you gotta go

[Ban Hammer 13,458]

it won't eh? funny how i have 20 years experience in that field and you don't.

If you're saying that intel practice is 'everyone disagrees, so let's just pick whatever we think is right and politically expedient', then it's no wonder no one trusts intel.

quite simply, sometimes the youngest most inexperienced is right. it's the nature of it.

Sure, that can happen in any discipline. But surely they're right because they have good arguments for their interpretation, not for frivolous or political reasons, no? And if that's the case, isn't something like consensus relevant, or whether their interpretation stands up to scrutiny, important?

I mean, we're literally in a situation where the best American intel disagreed with the rest of the world, and the rest of the world turned out to be right. You're the expert -- what went wrong? Why should I trust these guys when they say they know where Iran's weapons are?

not true. many other intel services agreed with the same assessment as us intel. as for why it was believed, my thoughts are it was a deception operation and it was believed, to the detriment of saddam.

[Trumplestiltskin 5,791]

I thought most of the core 'expert testimony' was given by that one Curveball source whose credibility was already being questioned at the time it was being relied upon.

So you don't believe that the war policy was a pre-determined one, the decision having been made months before, and that it was the "last resort" that the president claimed it to be..?

[Kevin and 10]

People are never going to agree on a solution to this kind of problem. And coming to some middle ground will never happen either. People can go round and round trying to figure out what to do. One of the reasons that the Pres in The Commander in Chief. If there was 535 people in charge nothing would happen. Now bring in the International Community, again nothing happens. Iran is now threatening Europe if sanctions are imposed. Is Europe going to cave in to the threats?

Everyone thinks somthing should be done to take care of the problem/potential problem. How long do we wait , until something happens then react? Just ignore it and let someone in the region take care of it (Israel, Russia, China, India)?