VJ Timeline Estimated Approval Calculation Method Updated

[Alt name 1]

Captain when I check I usually open in advance, sort by sent, and try to judge about what the processing time might be. I would personally prefer, until the NOA1 receipting is back on track, to see the NOA2 referenced to the sent date. It would save a bit of time hiding columns, especially for the I-130.

Well I see what you are trying to say. I think keeping the NOA date "as printed on the NOA's from the USCIS" is the proper thing. This allows people to see that "sent to NOA1" dates are increasing. NOA1 to NOA2 graphs and stats are valueble if taken along with the "sent to NOA1" stats. We used to puiblish "sent to NOA2" dates and I can easily add them back. Thoughts?

[Kazan' Tiger 1]

One step forward, two steps back. Well, my estimated timeline has shot up another 20 days. I'm all for accuracy and hope the improvements are on target. I'm just getting tired of not seeing any progress. The date will probably get moved forward again in a week a two. I've never been in a traffic jam where the cars actually moved backward.

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

Often case what is happening is that the USCIS is processing slower than the applications are coming in or there is a backlog. This can happen for periods of time thus causing your date to slide out. Remember that the estimates are based on other member's timelines so it is real data. Real data can vary some. In any case try not to worry. Chances are that the USCIS will pick back up the pace. There was a huge load of cases filed when the new fee's went into effect (July 30th) that slammed the system (in conjunction with the filing location changes).

Hang in there!

Click on your profile:

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=38047

and hit the "similar timeline button". You will see people around your day still waiting.

As you can see the CSC is processing about 145 days and climbing:

[bakofoil 27]

What if I put graphs like before from "sent to NOA2" but had the "sent to noa1" amount of time listed on the graph as well (in text somewhere).

Seems like this would be one solution to this issue without having to add additional fields to the timeline.

I agree with Bill's point that the 'notice date' is essentially meaningless and amending the NOA1 date to the 'received date' would not cause a severe skewing of historical data, since by your own admission the 'notice date' was very close to the 'sent date' anyway. However, I think you have come up with a workable solution which doesn't entail reliance on members amending their timeline.

Your suggestion would work in terms of looking at what sort of timeframe applicants are looking at between submission and NOA2 approval. It also incorporates the fact that NOA1 issue can be delayed at times.

I appreciate you listening to our concerns and coming up with a solution to this issue. Thanks for your time

[Bill y Bella 0]

Well I see what you are trying to say. I think keeping the NOA date "as printed on the NOA's from the USCIS" is the proper thing. Where on VJ does it say that now? Which of the multiple dates printed on a NOA1? That seems very confusing to me.

This allows people to see that "sent to NOA1" dates are increasing. I assume you mean sent to NOA1 notice dates are increasing. A valid concern for those waiting to receive their NOA1. I admit that is not my focus now because I am past that point. For a couple of weeks however that was high priority information. Is it possible to have fields for both NOA1 received and notice dates? That would be the ideal solution.

NOA1 to NOA2 graphs and stats are valuable if taken along with the "sent to NOA1" stats. It is too difficult to combine data to obtain the desired information. Sent (or NOA1 received) to NOA2 is the primary concern of members once they receive their NOA1. It allows people to use a stable and consistent starting point. NOA1 notice has too much variability to provide a good starting point of any processing time data.

We used to puiblish "sent to NOA2" dates and I can easily add them back. I think that would be useful. It is also consistent with the projected adjudication algorthm which currently seems to be the only place sent to NOA2 is used. I think that also leads to some confusion. It is illogical that VJ produces tons of reports that track NOA1 to NOA2 but then utilizes sent to NOA2 to make projections.

Thoughts? Assume there are only 2 members VJ members. Both send their petitions on the same day and both receive their NOA2 60 days later. However one has a NOA1 notice date in 10 days and the other waits 30 days. In this scenario every NOA1 to NOA2 report, graph, and search is misleading because it shows the average processing time as 40 days. Utilize the received date and the average NOA1 to NOA2 time is 58 days (Assuming it took 2 days for each petition to arrive) which is much more accurate and much more useful for anyone following behind them.

Thanks for your time!

[Kazan' Tiger 1]

It's especially frustrating with me. This is my second petition for my fiancée. We had to withdrawal her first for personal reasons just before her embassy interview in 2005. I was so happy to get her 2nd NOA in only two months time back then. It's been a LONG journey for us. Over 4 years so far and still she is not with me. It is one of the reasons, I spend a year with her in Russia. I had to be with her for more than a visit. Having to go through all this wait again is not pleasant.

Often case what is happening is that the USCIS is processing slower than the applications are coming in or there is a backlog. This can happen for periods of time thus causing your date to slide out. Remember that the estimates are based on other member's timelines so it is real data. Real data can vary some. In any case try not to worry. Chances are that the USCIS will pick back up the pace. There was a huge load of cases filed when the new fee's went into effect (July 30th) that slammed the system (in conjunction with the filing location changes).

Hang in there!

Click on your profile:

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=38047

and hit the "similar timeline button". You will see people around your day still waiting.

As you can see the CSC is processing about 145 days and climbing: