Is there any data on IR1 denial rates?

[GeraltOfRivia 0]

I've seen that CR1 visas allegedly have about a 9% denial rate and I'm wondering how it is for IR1 visas. 

[Dashinka 24,579]

That is always a tough question as the statistics are always so fluid.  Most denials can often be overcome eventually, so is that counted as a denial, or as an issued visa.  Add to this is the fact that the process bridges multiple government agencies, and each one could be the source of the denial i.e. was the I130 rejected by USCIS, was the case rejected at the NVC stage, or was the visa application denied by the DoS?  I cannot find specific numbers, but I expect completes case with plenty of evidence would be a fairly low rejection rate.

 

Good Luck!

[Crazy Cat 41,974]

Based simply on my memory, most of the very few spousal visa denials I have seen were due to the Consulate Officer doubting the authenticity of a marriage. It seems to me that marriage of longer duration (IR-1) would lessen those doubts.  I have no hard data to support that, but it seems logical to me.  

Edited yesterday at 01:35 PM by Crazy Cat

[Boiler 45,649]

I am surprised it is that high, the only number that would count would be those with similar cases anyway.

[Crazy Cat 41,974]

18 minutes ago, Boiler said:

I am surprised it is that high, the only number that would count would be those with similar cases anyway.

Agree.  9% seems too high.

[JeanneAdil 6,539]

from end of September (end of 2023 fiscal year)

 

130 Petition for Alien Relative

233,896  received

209,459 approved

 17,567 denied

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/forms/quarterly_all_forms_fy2023_q4.pdf

 

still trying to find chart for 2024 

[SalishSea 17,915]

1 hour ago, JeanneAdil said:

from end of September (end of 2023 fiscal year)

 

130 Petition for Alien Relative

233,896  received

209,459 approved

 17,567 denied

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/forms/quarterly_all_forms_fy2023_q4.pdf

 

still trying to find chart for 2024 

That isn't visa denial data though.

[top_secret 2,440]

Probably allot of CR1 denials would convert to IR1 by the time they are eventually approved simply because overcoming a denial may take more time.  Since the OP lists Philippines in their profile, CR1's have become a little more rare there recently simply due to US Embassy Manila's ongoing interview backlog.  I would guess that the ultimate denial rate for the Philippines differs significantly from some other countries that are considered to have a higher fraud rate.  I'm quite certain that almost any legitimate CR1 or IR1 case from the Philippines has almost a 100% chance of approval unless there is some extreme obvious problem with the case.  If there was an extreme obvious problem with the case than any kind of statistical comparisons wouldn't be valid.  It's more like if your case is totally legit you have an extremely high chance of approval and if your case is seriously flawed you have a very significant chance of denial.

[pushbrk 12,968]

If you're focused on statistics, your focused on the wrong thing.  Focus on building a relationship, providing evidence it's bona fide, and follow the proper steps.  When you do those things, you have little if anything to worry about.

 

[GeraltOfRivia 0]

3 hours ago, top_secret said:

Probably allot of CR1 denials would convert to IR1 by the time they are eventually approved simply because overcoming a denial may take more time.  Since the OP lists Philippines in their profile, CR1's have become a little more rare there recently simply due to US Embassy Manila's ongoing interview backlog.  I would guess that the ultimate denial rate for the Philippines differs significantly from some other countries that are considered to have a higher fraud rate.  I'm quite certain that almost any legitimate CR1 or IR1 case from the Philippines has almost a 100% chance of approval unless there is some extreme obvious problem with the case.  If there was an extreme obvious problem with the case than any kind of statistical comparisons wouldn't be valid.  It's more like if your case is totally legit you have an extremely high chance of approval and if your case is seriously flawed you have a very significant chance of denial.

That sounds great! We have a strong case, I think. Been married for 7 years (probably 9 by the time we interview), I (the USC) have a immigrant visa by marriage in the Philippines (their version of the IR1), we have a joint bank account, car registered in both our names, etc. I guess I should be more worried about domicile than anything. From what I've seen people post on Facebook, the Manila embassy has some officers that are very strict about expats like myself reestablishing domicile, but I already have a plan to put together a strong case on that front. 

[pushbrk 12,968]

1 hour ago, GeraltOfRivia said:

That sounds great! We have a strong case, I think. Been married for 7 years (probably 9 by the time we interview), I (the USC) have a immigrant visa by marriage in the Philippines (their version of the IR1), we have a joint bank account, car registered in both our names, etc. I guess I should be more worried about domicile than anything. From what I've seen people post on Facebook, the Manila embassy has some officers that are very strict about expats like myself reestablishing domicile, but I already have a plan to put together a strong case on that front. 

Statistics are meaningless to you then.  If you're not worried about the affidavit of support, then you have no worries.  Make sure you have evidence of your intent to re-establish domicile in the USA.  Silly as it seems, the fact that you petitioned for and seek an immigrant visa for your spouse, isn't enough.

[GeraltOfRivia 0]

16 minutes ago, pushbrk said:

Statistics are meaningless to you then.  If you're not worried about the affidavit of support, then you have no worries.  Make sure you have evidence of your intent to re-establish domicile in the USA.  Silly as it seems, the fact that you petitioned for and seek an immigrant visa for your spouse, isn't enough.

Fortunately both of my parents are willing to be joint sponsors. As for domicile, I just bought a condo where we will live in Oregon and I'll also use it for my assets because it's worth $265k. I am hoping it will be great proof of intent to reestablish domicile and if the visa fails for whatever reason I can still use it for rental income, though the plan is for us to live in the condo since it's so close to my parents' house. I also plan to fly to the US as soon as my wife gets her interview letter because I've seen a number of people on Facebook say their visa was refused until the husband flew out to the US and then sent proof they were in the US. So my plan is to do an affidavit with all my plans during the DQ phase and then after DQ we will get our house in the Philippines appraised to show intent to sell. Once she has her interview letter we'll post the Philippines house online to sell, I'll fly to America, get health insurance there, and mail my wife a second affidavit that I will get notarized in Oregon. I'm hoping that's enough. 

Edited 23 hours ago by GeraltOfRivia

[pushbrk 12,968]

47 minutes ago, GeraltOfRivia said:

Fortunately both of my parents are willing to be joint sponsors. As for domicile, I just bought a condo where we will live in Oregon and I'll also use it for my assets because it's worth $265k. I am hoping it will be great proof of intent to reestablish domicile and if the visa fails for whatever reason I can still use it for rental income, though the plan is for us to live in the condo since it's so close to my parents' house. I also plan to fly to the US as soon as my wife gets her interview letter because I've seen a number of people on Facebook say their visa was refused until the husband flew out to the US and then sent proof they were in the US. So my plan is to do an affidavit with all my plans during the DQ phase and then after DQ we will get our house in the Philippines appraised to show intent to sell. Once she has her interview letter we'll post the Philippines house online to sell, I'll fly to America, get health insurance there, and mail my wife a second affidavit that I will get notarized in Oregon. I'm hoping that's enough. 

Evidence of buying the condo during the process, should be sufficient for the domicile question.  Leaving without your wife is overkill.  They are not going to "count" your equity in the primary home to offset any income shortfall.  It's not considered a liquid asset.  You either have enough income or you don't.  If you do, you don't need your parents. If you don't, then one parent is the joint sponsor and the other parent is the joint sponsor's household member.  Time to become an A-Student of the I-864 and it's separate instructions.

 

Heed this from my signature too.  Facts are cheap...knowing how to use them is precious...
Understanding the big picture is priceless. Anonymous

 

Edited 22 hours ago by pushbrk