VisaJourney and TMVN (Track My Visa Now) Time Estimation Discrepancies

[Kestux 0]

Hello guys, I got a question for you. So, I just submitted my I-129F submission about a week ago, and recieved my digital NOA1 on Sept. 27th (no paper copy yet).

 

Once I recieved my case number, I made a paid account on TMVN, and on VisaJourney to make timelines (for estimation). To my discovery, both add wildly different estimations. For Visa Journey, it shoots me an estimation of January 5th-11th, but TMVN states May 2nd - June 9th. Some descripancy is to be expected, as its just an estimation, but 4-5 months more? Its a drastic difference. Which one seems to be the more reliable timeline? Data trends towards January, given the provided times I have been seeing on here, but people like to tout TMVN is the "latest and greatest". 

[Dashinka 24,487]

Since every case is individual, processing time estimates are highly unreliable.  Processing time estimates on VJ and other sources are only as good as the data used to create them.  In the case of VJ, it uses data from the members which is a small subset of active cases.  Although not entirely reliable, I find the USCIS processing times most accurate, but again, it is based on completing 80% of cases.

 

Good Luck!

 

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

[powerpuff 6,697]

*** Thread moved from General Immigration discussion to K1 Progress Reports ***

[apnzz 229]

Personally in our experience TMVN was extremely inaccurate. We were a bit naive and believed everyone when they raved about how accurate and amazing TMVN was. I wish we took it with a grain of salt. We first filed March 4th 2024 and everyone back then was ranting and raving about how amazing and accurate it was.  It stated we would be estimated to hear back between May 25th and June 17th. We didn't. We also spent more time "at the front of the line" than not. 

 

We finally got approved on August 23rd 2024. (172 days).

 

I'm not saying don't use it - although I personally became quite obsessive checking it daily etc and I think it made it worse for me (I have anxiety).I'd say USCIS website is probably the safest thing to base an estimation on, anything else might install false hope, as with our case.

 

The bottom line is, TMVN uses data predictions to provide estimates, and it may be based on USCIS data, but realistically USCIS is extremely unpredictable and they often change their processing behaviours frequently; skipping weeks, days, jumping back etc. 

 

Edited September 30 by apnzz

[smilingstone 167]

Personally, I felt that both VJ and TMVN were pretty much equal in terms of estimates. I opted for TMVN Pro.

 

If I recall correctly, VJ estimated August/September from the very beginning, and TMVN estimated a little bit sooner. We did get an RFE in June that delayed things, but we ended up with approval in early August. But as people here note, it varies wildly case-to-case.

 

1 hour ago, apnzz said:

I'm not saying don't use it - although I personally became quite obsessive checking it daily etc and I think it made it worse for me (I have anxiety).I'd say USCIS website is probably the safest thing to base an estimation on, anything else might install false hope, as with our case.

 

I became obsessive with TMVN too, checking it nearly daily, but in a way it provided me with some comfort being able to see all the graphs and numbers getting smaller over time. How accurate it all is is hard to say, but I feel it did help me mentally somewhat (even if it wasn't in a particularly healthy way).

 

FYI if you get an RFE, and have the Pro sub, they automatically take it down to basic as your place in the queue is effectively paused, making all the graphs redundant. Once USCIS updates you that they're reviewing your case once again, you can upgrade to Pro again to get access to more detailed stats.

 

I think if you're able to pay the monthly fee comfortably, and are interested in a (potentially) more detailed insight into your progress, then it won't do any harm. Just don't go making any sort of travel/wedding plans based on the timeframes that either VJ or TMVN give you. Treat them both explicitly as broad estimates that are subject to change.

[SteveInBostonI130 3,432]

Is it me, but why pay for information that is basically free?   

[apnzz 229]

17 minutes ago, SteveInBostonI130 said:

Is it me, but why pay for information that is basically free?   

Technically it is, but you're essentially paying for that information to be presented/displayed to you in an easy way. You can access that info from other sites for free, but it requires more effort on your part, vs just loading a page up and it's all displayed in tables and graphs for you all ready to read. It essentially just does the leg work for you. 

[Bunninuts 27]

TMVN uses data from USCIS to base their estimates off of whereas VJ is only using data from their users, a much smaller pool of data to create estimations. I opted not to buy any subscription and only look at information that is readily given for free on a couple of sites. I check TMVN as their tables are easy to read and give some idea what USCIS is processing. I also look at casestatusext.com as they analyze data as well and put into nice graphs. You can see who was approved by their WAC number and when their application was originally submitted. You can see the pattern that USCIS does not go in order, but kind of. They do pick up older cases then brand new cases and approve them equally with and without RFE's. There is a lot of free data that can lead you to agree there is no real effing way to know when they will get to ours 😂 We can hope they will get to it quickly but in reality, nobody knows. We can only make educated guesses. The processing times of USCIS have slowed drastically from June till now. The decline seems to be continuing as well. I would consider the longer timeline estimation and consider it could be longer as well. Something to singe you britches as it did mine: Cases that were submitted just this month have been approved before mine was sent for processing. Their are some lucky folks out there, but easier to consider yourself not one of them as to not get your hopes up too much.

Happy data hunting and best wishes for the timing of your application 💜