How accurate is the VJ predicted processing times?

[Cookie88 88]

Hi guys,

 

I saw a huge jump for CSC so I’m intrigued how these estimated processing times work/are calculated? I have 3 I-130’s, all of which were accepted at Texas Service Centre. 2 of them were transferred to Nebraska and 1 to California.

[Dashinka 24,487]

They are as accurate as the data that goes into them.  The VJ estimates are based on the subset of VJ members that fill out their timelines, and keep them updated.  Also every case is unique, so it is hard to determine relative to planning.

 

Good Luck!

[Rachel n Tyler 38]

TrackMyVisa is more accurate in my experience, but it costs money

[smilingstone 167]

59 minutes ago, Rachel n Tyler said:

TrackMyVisa is more accurate in my experience, but it costs money

 

I'd agree with this. In my own experience we received a response exactly in line with the TMVN prediction - although I will note that VJ wasn't far off either. 

 

If you are someone who finds peace of mind in having as much detail as possible, during a time where you lack all control, then it's worth the small monthly fee IMO. 

[Cookie88 88]

It seems the paid tracking aspects on TrackMyVisa are only for I-129F applications. But there's some interesting graphs to see for free for I-130's! Thank you guys!

 

I actually find it very interesting that in the last 28 days the NOA1 month that's had the second most updates is March 2024 after May 2023. The graph almost looks like they're working backwards from March 2024 right now 😅

Edited June 30 by Cookie88

[smilingstone 167]

38 minutes ago, Cookie88 said:

It seems the paid tracking aspects on TrackMyVisa are only for I-129F applications. But there's some interesting graphs to see for free for I-130's! Thank you guys!

 

I actually find it very interesting that in the last 28 days the NOA1 month that's had the second most updates is March 2024 after May 2023. The graph almost looks like they're working backwards from March 2024 right now 😅

 

Ah, I didnt realise that, sorry! 

 

Well if it's free data for you, that's a bonus! 

 

Before I signed up for TMVN, VJ data was indicating a huge backlog. I'd heard from VJers directly that they were looking at much more recent cases - TMVN echoed this. 

 

I think because VJ data is so reliant on user input, which can be incorrect or people simply don't update anything, it can really skew it. 

[Cookie88 88]

22 minutes ago, smilingstone said:

I think because VJ data is so reliant on user input, which can be incorrect or people simply don't update anything, it can really skew it. 

 

Yes, this was my main concern. I was actually concerned someone put in an expedited case approval that cause CSC timeline to jump 😅

[KMG 125]

17 hours ago, Cookie88 said:

Hi guys,

 

I saw a huge jump for CSC so I’m intrigued how these estimated processing times work/are calculated? I have 3 I-130’s, all of which were accepted at Texas Service Centre. 2 of them were transferred to Nebraska and 1 to California.

If you filed online, the tracking apps won't help much.  I have yet to find an app that is used for tracking IOE9....  case blocks which are online filers. If anyone knows of any, that would be great to know! 

[OldUser 6,623]

None of the trackers can give 100% accurate prediction for 2 reasons:

1) Each case is unique

2) Nobody knows what USCIS will do tomorrow. Like with stock market, past performance doesn't predict the future for sure.

 

[TBoneTX 45,264]

Thread asking about the VJ timeline function is moved from the CR-1 Case Progress subforum to the Site Discussion forum.

[Cookie88 88]

3 hours ago, KMG said:

If you filed online, the tracking apps won't help much.  I have yet to find an app that is used for tracking IOE9....  case blocks which are online filers. If anyone knows of any, that would be great to know! 

 

Someone taught me a ‘science’ to figuring out your mail-in corresponding case block range for online filers. If you go on https://www.casestatusext.com/forms/I-130/IOE-LB - towards the bottom see the ‘Who are the lucky ones?’ Section. Filter the list by date, then find your NOA1 date. Keep doing this while changing the NOA2 date at the top of the table, and you’ll begin noticing a trend in the number range for your NOA1 date and the surrounding dates. For example, I figured for my online receipt the corresponding mail-in case blocks are within the IOE092245 - IOE092246 range. I further confirmed this on the ‘Case Track’ mobile app when I typed out these ranges and all of them had the exact same NOA1 date as mine for I-130’s. 

 

 

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

22 hours ago, Cookie88 said:

Hi guys,

 

I saw a huge jump for CSC so I’m intrigued how these estimated processing times work/are calculated? I have 3 I-130’s, all of which were accepted at Texas Service Centre. 2 of them were transferred to Nebraska and 1 to California.

 

Hi Cookie.  I typically don't go into our processing details, but I've seen a few of these posts before so I figured I'd take a brief moment to give you some insights into our estimate.  In short, we err on being conservative.  We provided a 9 day window for your approval estimate in late October.  Statistically, for your specific case (at this moment in time) there is a 50% chance your case will be approved before this window and a 25% chance it will be approved later (than the window).  In short, there is a 75% chance your case will be approved on or before the estimated window.

 

Further, if you want to get an estimate of how the CSC is processing I-130s currently, I took a look at some of the VJ stats and can see they appear to be processing cases from last (mid) May right now.  This reinforces the late October estimate for your case, as you filed late last September.

 

As others said, things change and all estimates are 'just that'... but if you are a numbers and statistics person, hopefully this is helpful :).

 

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

Are there ways (or thoughts) on how we can improve the timelines and estimates here :)?  Would love to hear ideas and work with the community to improve!

[Cookie88 88]

Wow, thank you Captain Ewok for these data insights! Super fascinating to see how it’s all calculated. Makes sense now why despite that September 7th date in the snapshot I gave above, my personalised approval estimate remained at the end of October. 

 

And, of course, estimates are estimates! It’s just nice keeping track of current data trends to get an ‘idea’ of how things are running currently. 

 

I do sincerely hope they somehow catch up and approval estimates get reduced back down to the 11 month mark. It was not until the fee hikes in April 2024 that we started seeing approval estimate windows increase. I believe a factor may have been the surge in applications in March 2024 - presumably everyone trying to apply before the fees went up. 

 

Anyhow, thank you again for taking the time out for a fun data analysis personalised to my case!

[Captain Ewok 1,891]

42 minutes ago, Cookie88 said:

Wow, thank you Captain Ewok for these data insights! Super fascinating to see how it’s all calculated. Makes sense now why despite that September 7th date in the snapshot I gave above, my personalised approval estimate remained at the end of October. 

 

And, of course, estimates are estimates! It’s just nice keeping track of current data trends to get an ‘idea’ of how things are running currently. 

 

I do sincerely hope they somehow catch up and approval estimates get reduced back down to the 11 month mark. It was not until the fee hikes in April 2024 that we started seeing approval estimate windows increase. I believe a factor may have been the surge in applications in March 2024 - presumably everyone trying to apply before the fees went up. 

 

Anyhow, thank you again for taking the time out for a fun data analysis personalised to my case!

 

Sure thing!  Btw we def eliminate bogus data and other things when we compute estimates.  I know that comes up sometimes.