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Nathan Alden, Sr.

For the data nerds: NVC immigrant visa trends

By Nathan Alden, Sr. in General Immigration-Related Discussion

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Nathan Alden, Sr. Contributor

Nathan Alden, Sr.   17

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I was curious about how the NVC is faring over time at resolving its immigrant visa backlog. Using granular information provided on the US Department of State website, I created a spreadsheet and a chart that shows the trend:

 

image.thumb.png.81c37c9939e70ea83824bf9697c37358.png

 

Asterisks indicate bad, missing, or incomplete data.

 

This chart clearly shows that the NVC had been steadily improving what I call its "clearance rate," which is the rate at which visa interviews are scheduled compared to how many submissions are documentarily complete, at least until November 2023. Unfortunately, the data only goes back to mid-pandemic; I would have been very curious to see data from 2019 and earlier as I am guessing the clearance rate was much higher then. Despite the NVC website claiming "We are committed to resolving the immigrant visa backlog..." in reality they are barely making headway, especially in the period between October 2023 and May 2024 when the clearance rate has essentially remained unchanged.

 

At a clearance rate of 12% and all else being equal (e.g., different visas not being treated differently, no special prioritization, etc.), this means the average immigrant visa takes more than eight months to process once reaching the documentarily complete status. This obviously is not the full picture as the USCIS itself has even worse processing times. Combined with consulate delays (e.g., Manila), it's no wonder overall process times are approaching two years.

 

I've attached the LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet I used for the screenshot in case anyone is interested.

nvc-immigrant-visa-backlog.zip

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Crazy Cat Grand Master

Crazy Cat   41,814

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NVC is merely the holding area.  Individual consulates control available interview slots as they inform NVC of available dates. 

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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Nathan Alden, Sr. Contributor

Nathan Alden, Sr.   17

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2 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

NVC is merely the holding area.  Individual consulates control available interview slots as they inform NVC of available dates. 

 

Thanks for the correction. Thinking about it now, I knew that from my research before but for some reason it slipped my mind this time. The real blame lies with the consulates, of course.

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Crazy Cat Grand Master

Crazy Cat   41,814

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1 minute ago, Nathan Alden, Sr. said:

 

Thanks for the correction. Thinking about it now, I knew that from my research before but for some reason it slipped my mind this time. The real blame lies with the consulates, of course.

Sadly, some consulates have never recovered from the pandemic slowdowns.  The consulates decreased their capacity, but the pipeline of new petitions and applicants never slowed.

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

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milimelo Veteran

milimelo   4,475

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1 hour ago, Crazy Cat said:

Sadly, some consulates have never recovered from the pandemic slowdowns.  The consulates decreased their capacity, but the pipeline of new petitions and applicants never slowed.

They actually are now back to bringing more people back on and tackling the backlogs. 

ROC 2009
Naturalization 2010

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TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   45,259

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1 hour ago, Nathan Alden, Sr. said:

a source for that

There's no substitute for personal observation and knowledge, which is why you can believe her.  :) 

And, thanks for your assiduous research and compilation in regard to your chart!

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   45,259

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An unrelated post & reply were split from this thread into a new thread in the Africa: Sub-Saharan regional forum.

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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