Jump to content
Nathan Alden, Sr.

For the data nerds: NVC immigrant visa trends

By Nathan Alden, Sr. in General Immigration-Related Discussion

 Share

7 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

Nathan Alden, Sr. Contributor

Nathan Alden, Sr.   17

Posted
Timeline
Posted

I was curious about how the NVC is faring over time at resolving its immigrant visa backlog. Using granular information provided on the US Department of State website, I created a spreadsheet and a chart that shows the trend:

 

image.thumb.png.81c37c9939e70ea83824bf9697c37358.png

 

Asterisks indicate bad, missing, or incomplete data.

 

This chart clearly shows that the NVC had been steadily improving what I call its "clearance rate," which is the rate at which visa interviews are scheduled compared to how many submissions are documentarily complete, at least until November 2023. Unfortunately, the data only goes back to mid-pandemic; I would have been very curious to see data from 2019 and earlier as I am guessing the clearance rate was much higher then. Despite the NVC website claiming "We are committed to resolving the immigrant visa backlog..." in reality they are barely making headway, especially in the period between October 2023 and May 2024 when the clearance rate has essentially remained unchanged.

 

At a clearance rate of 12% and all else being equal (e.g., different visas not being treated differently, no special prioritization, etc.), this means the average immigrant visa takes more than eight months to process once reaching the documentarily complete status. This obviously is not the full picture as the USCIS itself has even worse processing times. Combined with consulate delays (e.g., Manila), it's no wonder overall process times are approaching two years.

 

I've attached the LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet I used for the screenshot in case anyone is interested.

nvc-immigrant-visa-backlog.zip

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Crazy Cat Grand Master

Crazy Cat   41,010

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
 Timeline
Posted

NVC is merely the holding area.  Individual consulates control available interview slots as they inform NVC of available dates. 

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nathan Alden, Sr. Contributor

Nathan Alden, Sr.   17

Posted
Timeline
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

NVC is merely the holding area.  Individual consulates control available interview slots as they inform NVC of available dates. 

 

Thanks for the correction. Thinking about it now, I knew that from my research before but for some reason it slipped my mind this time. The real blame lies with the consulates, of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Crazy Cat Grand Master

Crazy Cat   41,010

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Taiwan
 Timeline
Posted
1 minute ago, Nathan Alden, Sr. said:

 

Thanks for the correction. Thinking about it now, I knew that from my research before but for some reason it slipped my mind this time. The real blame lies with the consulates, of course.

Sadly, some consulates have never recovered from the pandemic slowdowns.  The consulates decreased their capacity, but the pipeline of new petitions and applicants never slowed.

"The US immigration process requires a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and a significant amount of money.  It is quite a journey!"

- Some old child of the 50's & 60's on his laptop 

 

Senior Master Sergeant, US Air Force- Retired (after 20+ years)- Missile Systems Maintenance & Titan 2 ICBM Launch Crew Duty (200+ Alert tours)

Registered Nurse- Retired- I practiced in the areas of Labor & Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, & Adult Psych.

IT Professional- Retired- Web Site Design, Hardware Maintenance, Compound Pharmacy Software Trainer, On-site go live support, Database Manager, App Designer.

______________________________________

In summary, it took 13 months for approval of the CR-1.  It took 44 months for approval of the I-751.  It took 4 months for approval of the N-400.   It took 172 days from N-400 application to Oath Ceremony.   It took 6 weeks for Passport, then 7 additional weeks for return of wife's Naturalization Certificate.. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
milimelo Veteran

milimelo   4,410

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Bosnia-Herzegovina
 Timeline
Posted
1 hour ago, Crazy Cat said:

Sadly, some consulates have never recovered from the pandemic slowdowns.  The consulates decreased their capacity, but the pipeline of new petitions and applicants never slowed.

They actually are now back to bringing more people back on and tackling the backlogs. 

ROC 2009
Naturalization 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TBoneTX Grand Master

TBoneTX   44,391

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
 Timeline
Posted
1 hour ago, Nathan Alden, Sr. said:

a source for that

There's no substitute for personal observation and knowledge, which is why you can believe her.  :) 

And, thanks for your assiduous research and compilation in regard to your chart!

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Link to comment
Share on other sites
 
Didn't find the answer you were looking for? Ask our VJ Immigration Lawyers.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
- Back to Top -

Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.
×
×
  • Create New...