Julian Date Hack: another level of status checks for the impatient

[hplusj 135]

Hey all! 

 

Big props to @XCindyX on brainstorming shared knowledge to come up with this little additional search method.

 

In the Google Drive information for each monthly timeline post, it was shared how to dissect NVC case numbers.  Please correct me if I've misinterpreted this for cases later in the year with three digit Julian dates, but the formula seems to be this: Embassy code + year of case creation + Julian date the case number was assigned, plus 500 + case position. 

 

To put into an example, if my case was assigned for the Johannesburg embassy in 2024 on April 1st (Julian date 92), and my case is first to be assigned a number on that day, my case would be JHN2024-592-001 (minus the dashes, just showing how the formula breaks down).

 

Why is this useful to know?  Well it may help to understand that all visa cases sent to the embassies from the NVC, fit this formula.  It's not just K1/CR1.  Since we have the visa statistics from the Department of State website to show just how many visas of each type are processed monthly at each embassy, we can estimate how many a given embassy will accept and issue.

 

Granted it is entirely a guessing game to figure out which days the NVC issued case numbers for any particular embassy but at the very least, I was able to easily figure out what the statuses were for other cases on my day alone.  Thinking I was in a good position in eighth for my day (008 at the end of my case), a quick search showed me that there is not 009 or above, meaning my case was in dead last for my date. 😂

 

Searching my case number and altering the last three digits to 001-007, I additionally learned that I'm not alone in waiting.  Initially our three month wait at NVC made me think that there was something specifically wrong with us; at the very least, this confirmed that there were a variety of statuses for the same wait time.  Of the eight of us, three cases were ready and two were in transit.  Our case and two others (positions 003 and 004) were still sitting at NVC.

 

Again the whole process is incessantly opaque, but what this at least attempts to do is demonstrate how complex the selection process can be.  Factoring in all the visa types/priorities/regional quotas, it is difficult to read when a visa case will move out of the NVC.  But we're all in this process together, and where our case sits ultimately is at the whims of many factors, all requiring patience and hope that we'll break the line soon. ❤️

[DBiddle 19]

Very fine detective work!

 

I am at 2 months and have been waiting impatiently, wondering what is going on at NVC.

Using your method, I was able to see the status of the 8 cases on my date:

At NVC: 5 cases

In Transit: 1 case

Ready: 1 case

Need to pay fees: 1 case

 

At least now I can see that there is some method going on behind the curtain, as we wait.

Thank you for your efforts!

 

[Julsia 4]

Great work to you both and thank you for sharing. Hopefully, this means your case will be in transit next shipment. 
 

Does ready mean it’s at the US Embassy? 

[top_secret 2,414]

I kind of extensively played around with looking at other case numbers by date to try to make some predictions back when our CR1 and CR2 cases were at NVC.  The wild card is it figuring out which cases are your category and which are other categories since they follow different timelines. 

 

18 hours ago, DBiddle said:

I am at 2 months and have been waiting impatiently, wondering what is going on at NVC.

Using your method, I was able to see the status of the 8 cases on my date:

At NVC: 5 cases

In Transit: 1 case

Ready: 1 case

Need to pay fees: 1 case

 

In these cases "At NVC" could be a K1, but it could also be a documentarily complete CR, IR or other family category.  The only way you could really differentiate is if you had been following cases from early in the process.  K1 cases go strait to "At NVC" when created whereas other categories first go through "Pay Fees" and "Submit Requested Documents" and only go to "At NVC" once they are documentarily complete.  That also skews the "In Transit" and "Ready" dates because while K1's go in order of case creation and by themselves would be easy to figure out, CR and IR also go  "In Transit" and "Ready" and they go in the order of when they became documentarily complete which can vary wildly depending on how fast the applicant completed the NVC process.  Then there are those who had successful expedites.....

 

But it is a fun way to pass the time and you can indeed gain some useful predictions.

[hplusj 135]

1 hour ago, top_secret said:

I kind of extensively played around with looking at other case numbers by date to try to make some predictions back when our CR1 and CR2 cases were at NVC.  The wild card is it figuring out which cases are your category and which are other categories since they follow different timelines. 

 

 

In these cases "At NVC" could be a K1, but it could also be a documentarily complete CR, IR or other family category.  The only way you could really differentiate is if you had been following cases from early in the process.  K1 cases go strait to "At NVC" when created whereas other categories first go through "Pay Fees" and "Submit Requested Documents" and only go to "At NVC" once they are documentarily complete.  That also skews the "In Transit" and "Ready" dates because while K1's go in order of case creation and by themselves would be easy to figure out, CR and IR also go  "In Transit" and "Ready" and they go in the order of when they became documentarily complete which can vary wildly depending on how fast the applicant completed the NVC process.  Then there are those who had successful expedites.....

 

But it is a fun way to pass the time and you can indeed gain some useful predictions.

Yes, the visa types remain partly a mystery but you’re right, the status of paying fees gives a little bit away.  I assume that cases displaying subcases indicate multiple individuals which leads me to believe it’s perhaps a K2 (children) but not positive on that.

[top_secret 2,414]

1 minute ago, hplusj said:

Yes, the visa types remain partly a mystery but you’re right, the status of paying fees gives a little bit away.  I assume that cases displaying subcases indicate multiple individuals which leads me to believe it’s perhaps a K2 (children) but not positive on that.

 

You are partially correct about subcases possibly being K2.  But categories like F2A also allow derivatives so even that is not 100% certain.  Again, if you caught the case early after creation cases with K2 go directly to "At NVC" whereas F2A etc. go through the additional steps first.