Is “Track My Visa Now” accurate?

[jdawgg 1]

Hey guys! Sorry if this isn’t the right forum for this but a general question of track my visa now is accurate or somewhat accurate? I just submitted my K1 petition last week and it’s anticipating I will get approved in May… 🫣

[Boiler 45,753]

Neither

 

Seems to be a randomly generated forecast.

[jdawgg 1]

11 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Neither

 

Seems to be a randomly generated forecast.

Thank you! I figured. 😵‍💫

[JeanneAdil 6,583]

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

 

site says for CSC and K1 visa 16 months /can be less but probably not 6

[appleblossom 2,816]

Nope, not remotely! Seems that it tells you the time is counting down, then just before the time you are anticipating a decision being made it changes and suddenly says 'your case is taking longer than expected'. 😂

[Boiler 45,753]

K1 my guess would be 10 months for the first stage.

[jdawgg 1]

Thanks guys! I was just trying to keep a false hope that it was right alive 😂

 

 

6 hours ago, Boiler said:

K1 my guess would be 10 months for the first stage.

That’s better than 16 months! 🥲

Edited November 29, 2023 by jdawgg

[TBoneTX 45,659]

Thread is moved to General Immigration Discussion forum.

[AndiB 677]

On 11/28/2023 at 4:31 PM, jdawgg said:

Hey guys! Sorry if this isn’t the right forum for this but a general question of track my visa now is accurate or somewhat accurate? I just submitted my K1 petition last week and it’s anticipating I will get approved in May… 🫣

Its based on processing speed (obtained directly from uscis) and backlog (again obtained from uscis)

 

As USCIS doesn't process strictly in order it is an estimate as no one can say when you'll get approved but it was accurate for me and many others.

 

People here also said USCIS wasn't speeding up from 16months and they're now approving at 9months so

 

6 months seems correct based on their processing speed for last 6months+. 6 months is likely earliest though, people do often have to wait 1-3months longer than others in their month.

 

Congrats on filing!

[AndiB 677]

On 11/28/2023 at 6:04 PM, appleblossom said:

Nope, not remotely! Seems that it tells you the time is counting down, then just before the time you are anticipating a decision being made it changes and suddenly says 'your case is taking longer than expected'. 😂

Isn't that the uscis estimate tool?

I've seen it so that for a lot of spousals/aos

[JH & EB 26]

Even though the m o d s  of this site try to regulate it, t m v n is operated by very sophisticated data analysts who have created and provided a tool far more accurate than USCIS or other estimating sites. I can speak for this first-hand going through the process - it's been the most valuable tool out there for my (then) fiance and I when planning our timeline as much as possible. We're in AOS now so speaking from someone who's been there recently. It's not random - it's based on legit data and a very valuable resource in this process. 

[AndiB 677]

On 11/28/2023 at 5:19 PM, JeanneAdil said:

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

 

site says for CSC and K1 visa 16 months /can be less but probably not 6

As someone in middle of filing and helping many others going through process. Bulk is now 10months approval and moving to 9months. I got approved in sept and others from then were getting approved in 11 months

 

Uscis processing time is based on past 6 months so it fast gets out of date

 

Also tbh i guess it depends what threshold we're using. To hear back is def gonna be about 6-8 months but that incls RFEs. RFEs greatly increase the time to hit 80% approved/denied that uscis uses as their threshold 🤔

[jdawgg 1]

5 hours ago, AndiB said:

Its based on processing speed (obtained directly from uscis) and backlog (again obtained from uscis)

 

As USCIS doesn't process strictly in order it is an estimate as no one can say when you'll get approved but it was accurate for me and many others.

 

People here also said USCIS wasn't speeding up from 16months and they're now approving at 9months so

 

6 months seems correct based on their processing speed for last 6months+. 6 months is likely earliest though, people do often have to wait 1-3months longer than others in their month.

 

Congrats on filing!

Thanks for your insights! It’ll be exciting if this tracker does estimate correctly and my fiancé and I can be together sooner!
 

 

5 hours ago, JH & EB said:

Even though the m o d s  of this site try to regulate it, t m v n is operated by very sophisticated data analysts who have created and provided a tool far more accurate than USCIS or other estimating sites. I can speak for this first-hand going through the process - it's been the most valuable tool out there for my (then) fiance and I when planning our timeline as much as possible. We're in AOS now so speaking from someone who's been there recently. It's not random - it's based on legit data and a very valuable resource in this process. 

Thank you so much for your info! We were anticipating 2025 as his arrival here and were planning a June 2025 wedding lol a little worried now if this does speed up like that 😂

 

5 hours ago, AndiB said:

As someone in middle of filing and helping many others going through process. Bulk is now 10months approval and moving to 9months. I got approved in sept and others from then were getting approved in 11 months

 

Uscis processing time is based on past 6 months so it fast gets out of date

 

Also tbh i guess it depends what threshold we're using. To hear back is def gonna be about 6-8 months but that incls RFEs. RFEs greatly increase the time to hit 80% approved/denied that uscis uses as their threshold 🤔

Congratulations on your approval! I will def keep T m v n in mind. 

[Boiler 45,753]

Been there got the T Shirt, the K1 is the worst option to plan anything, and it is much worse now than back in my day. So if you are into planning my first thought would be why are you doing a K?

[jdawgg 1]

2 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Been there got the T Shirt, the K1 is the worst option to plan anything, and it is much worse now than back in my day. So if you are into planning my first thought would be why are you doing a K?

I agree. I was just saying we had June 2025 in mind as the processing times show 16 months. I understand the unpredictability of the visa so we aren’t setting any dates.