I751 Under Trump

[A110 96]

This is not a political debate or trying to say who is better. That being said I speculate I751 cases to almost take 5-6 years easily if Trump is elected.

USCIS resources are going to be directed to ICE and such and less on clearing backlogs, but the amouunt of cases are gonna remain the same. Backlog from Biden is gonna carry over to Trump and I751 being so low priority I would not be surprised if they just don't touch the cases for the first 3-4 years and now that I think the actual processing time could get exponential quickly and maybe taking as long as 9-10 years for simple cases. 

[OldUser 7,004]

1 minute ago, A110 said:

This is not a political debate or trying to say who is better. That being said I speculate I751 cases to almost take 5-6 years easily if Trump is elected.

USCIS resources are going to be directed to ICE and such and less on clearing backlogs, but the amouunt of cases are gonna remain the same. Backlog from Biden is gonna carry over to Trump and I751 being so low priority I would not be surprised if they just don't touch the cases for the first 3-4 years and now that I think the actual processing time could get exponential quickly and maybe taking as long as 9-10 years for simple cases. 

Fun fact: my I-485 took quicker under Trump than I-485s take nowadays under Biden. I'm by no means a Trump supporter. I just think no matter who's in power there's objective reasons why immigration is slowing down. It's simply the amount of people seeking immigration benefit (think asylum seekers, family reunions). And there hasn't been any changes in immigration system to support this demand.

[A110 96]

4 minutes ago, OldUser said:

Fun fact: my I-485 took quicker under Trump than I-485s take nowadays under Biden. I'm by no means a Trump supporter. I just think no matter who's in power there's objective reasons why immigration is slowing down. It's simply the amount of people seeking immigration benefit (think asylum seekers, family reunions). And there hasn't been any changes in immigration system to support this demand.

I agree, the backlog is the real issue here, that said the 10-20 % difference in the agency policy under Trump will create maybe an additional 60-70% (if not more) wait times in the first two years and then maybe 10 year processing time by 2028 just because of the huge backlog .

[TBoneTX 45,659]

29 minutes ago, A110 said:

USCIS resources are going to be directed to ICE

USCIS, through fees, is a self-funding agency.

Speculation is fruitless.  Just have to wait for the backlogs and wheels of bureaucracy to move.

[Fe.Ta 874]

34 minutes ago, A110 said:

This is not a political debate or trying to say who is better. That being said I speculate I751 cases to almost take 5-6 years easily if Trump is elected.

USCIS resources are going to be directed to ICE and such and less on clearing backlogs, but the amouunt of cases are gonna remain the same. Backlog from Biden is gonna carry over to Trump and I751 being so low priority I would not be surprised if they just don't touch the cases for the first 3-4 years and now that I think the actual processing time could get exponential quickly and maybe taking as long as 9-10 years for simple cases. 

I want to acknowledge that this is a legitimate concern.  Also, I am sure the issue of delays includes the president/elected party as one of the factors - but not THE factor (regardless of where you stand, believe in, and what media portrays for either side).  Unfortunately, as you stated, without any politics, presidents, etc., there is no "hard truth" as to why USCIS does and acts a certain way.

For example, our K1 visa application was submitted in November 2018 - while Trump was president.  By June 2019 my husband was already living with me in USA.  Now, COVID happened and that caused delays, but I am sure there has to be other factors - besides a pandemic and politics/president - for a K1 visa to now take almost as long as a CR1 back in the day (1.5 to 2 years).

All that to say, USCIS is its own mess - as @TBoneTX stated.  We just have to wait or make additional decisions such as applying for citizenship, WoM, etc.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Fe.Ta
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[TBoneTX 45,659]

29 minutes ago, OldUser said:

no matter who's in power there's objective reasons why immigration is slowing down

^^ This.

[powerpuff 6,744]

*** Topic moved to General Immigration discussion as it’s not specific to questions about the I-751 process but rather broader discussion ***

[A110 96]

24 minutes ago, Fe.Ta said:

I want to acknowledge that this is a legitimate concern.  Also, I am sure the issue of delays includes the president/elected party as one of the factors - but not THE factor (regardless of where you stand, believe in, and what media portrays for either side).  Unfortunately, as you stated, without any politics, presidents, etc., there is no "hard truth" as to why USCIS does and acts a certain way.

For example, our K1 visa application was submitted in November 2018 - while Trump was president.  By June 2019 my husband was already living with me in USA.  Now, COVID happened and that caused delays, but I am sure there has to be other factors - besides a pandemic and politics/president - for a K1 visa to now take almost as long as a CR1 back in the day (1.5 to 2 years).

All that to say, USCIS is its own mess - as @TBoneTX stated.  We just have to wait or make additional decisions such as applying for citizenship, WoM, etc.

The only real difference of Trump vs Biden is allocation of USCIS resources and maybe extra scrutiny. Both of those factors will increase the wait times exponentially. 

[Crazy Cat 41,985]

1 hour ago, A110 said:

This is not a political debate or trying to say who is better. That being said I speculate I751 cases to almost take 5-6 years easily if Trump is elected.

USCIS resources are going to be directed to ICE and such and less on clearing backlogs, but the amouunt of cases are gonna remain the same. Backlog from Biden is gonna carry over to Trump and I751 being so low priority I would not be surprised if they just don't touch the cases for the first 3-4 years and now that I think the actual processing time could get exponential quickly and maybe taking as long as 9-10 years for simple cases. 

Trump tried to increase USCIS fees which WOULD have increased staffing ....That got shot down.. You can reach your own conclusion.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Crazy Cat

[Fe.Ta 874]

52 minutes ago, A110 said:

The only real difference of Trump vs Biden is allocation of USCIS resources and maybe extra scrutiny. Both of those factors will increase the wait times exponentially. 

As previously stated, your concerns are valid.  Likewise, yes, these are all factors that will result in increase of processing and delays.  However, to my point, they are not the ONLY factors.  While I sometimes engage in finding logic to USCIS, there is none.  USCIS operates in its own matrix and while we can identify patterns and factors throughout the years, I have not seen one single user on VJ successfully pinpoint reasons, patterns, factors, actions, etc. to understand and apply a logical explanation or reasoning to USCIS behaviors, actions, and decisions.  I have fallen victim to this fallacy, and I am sure I will again, but it is just not how they work.  They are weird as heck. LOL

[JeanneAdil 6,583]

Don't forget the ban that was imposed

 

but in truth,  find out how your Congress  repres feel about legal and illegal immigration and voice your opinion to them /they write the immigration laws -OR ARE SUPPOSE TO 

We ,  who have gone thru this process spending a ton of money and time need to let them know our feelings  about it all

 

who controls Congress is important

we seem to have "do nothings and trying to control  too much"  

 

if u do write to anyone,  keep in mind,  a law is no good if it can't be enforced

 

 

[Crazy Cat 41,985]

Using logic, I-751 processing time should have decreased since there are more spousal visa holders entering the US after 2 years of marriage.  However, available USCIS resources have been re-directed under Biden.   I don't see that changing if he is re-elected. 

[Boiler 45,753]

It is not really the Laws, there are no shortage of laws, it is how they are enacted, you can have the best Laws passed (not going to happen) but if they are implemented badly it matters not a jot.

 

I 751 seems pointless, I can count the number of failed caes I have seen on one hand. Logically the thing would be to do away with it. I am not sure if that is legally possible, now they could just make it an automatic process and have it done in a week.

[Crazy Cat 41,985]

1 minute ago, Boiler said:

Logically the thing would be to do away with it. I am not sure if that is legally possible, now they could just make it an automatic process and have it done in a week.

Exactly.  The last time I ran the numbers, less than 1% of I-751s were denied.  That tells me they are not needed.

[TBoneTX 45,659]

27 minutes ago, Fe.Ta said:

we can identify patterns and factors throughout the years

This.  One glaring factor was when Obama decreed the DACA program.  USCIS's attention was diverted toward that as highest priority.  My sense was that processing-times slowed considerably, and a VJ member ran some detailed calculations and proved this.  Unfortunately, those charts and graphs were in formats that didn't survive on VJ over time, so I can't produce meaningful links, but trust that the slowdown was stark.  In the years since, I don't see that processing-times (for any USCIS process that we deal with here) have ever recovered.