I have a proposition to help curb NIV overstays

[OldUser 6,633]

16 minutes ago, SalishSea said:

Is this newish?  I went to Japan some years ago (2008ish), and it wasn't required then.

Were you a New Zealand citizen back then? You probably traveled visa free to Japan?

[SalishSea 17,818]

27 minutes ago, OldUser said:

Were you a New Zealand citizen back then? You probably traveled visa free to Japan?

No, I am a USC, born and raised in Seattle.  I married a kiwi.

[OldUser 6,633]

12 minutes ago, SalishSea said:

No, I am a USC, born and raised in Seattle.  I married a kiwi.

Same. I think you can travel visa free to Japan so none of that applies.

[telso 16]

2 hours ago, Timona said:

How much money do tourists bring to US? I don't think it's that great.

As noted by others, it is that great.

 

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Most stay with family and friends anyway to cut costs as US is expensive AND I'm 100% sure that 70% of the tourist come to vist family and friends

I'm 100% sure you're overconfident and just made that number up. Based on DHS data, a quarter of non-immigrants coming by plane visit Florida, and two-thirds are visiting one of five states, which are big tourist destinations (NY, FL, CA) or border states (TX, AZ, CA, NY). (One site I found says nearly half of families visiting the US go to a theme park, and most of them to a major one.) Around 20% aren't even visiting for pleasure (business, students, moving to US as temporary residents, etc.). These 80 million per year (pre-covid) also mostly don't count land admissions from Mexico, which were about 350 million per year, many of whom go back and forth for work, nor land admissions from Canada, which are over 10 million per year. And 20 million of the 80 million are from VWP countries, and if you add in Canadians that's a lot of people who can afford a week or two in the US without needing to stay with family or friends. While some of all these groups are visiting family and friends, 70% seems way too high, and I could not find that number anywhere.

 

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Additionally, majority of people who come on B-2 refuse to leave.

This is hilariously wrong. DHS's overstay report says the number of overstays from NIV who entered by sea and air is at most 3.67%. Within that, 0.25% did leave the country within the fiscal year (just late), and another 0.38% adjusted status, brining the total down to 3.04%. (Some may have adjusted fraudulently, but some did not, including some K-1s who hit 90 days and dual-intent. Having at most 0.2% or 0.3% of entries use a NIV to arrive and then fraudulently adjust status is very, very small.) They may not capture all departures too, but even if it's most, that's around 3%. Hardly a majority. And around 20% of total overstays are just from TPS from Venezuela. VWP overstay rate is 1.15%, non-VWP is 7%, student/exchange is 3.5%, and for arrival by air/sea Canada is 0.5% and Mexico is 3.5% (but Canada in Mexico do not give DHS exit data when their citizens drive home, so those numbers are probably lower).

 

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This is a problem to those who suddenly fell in love and don't want leave. 

As noted above, it's at most a 0.3% problem. One in 300. Is it worth this system for <0.3%? Most, I bet, think not.

 

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Lastly, I think it's costing US more money to actually provide social services to overstays.

The most pessimistic cost estimates to governments are under $500 per American per year for all people without legal status, about equal to the benefit that international tourism brings to the economy. Take out illegal entries (rather than overstays), that's around $300. The less pessimistic estimates are less than that, and include benefits, like taxes paid; one could also include growing the economy. And since many people in the US without legal status arrived in prior years, the cost of new overstays per year to governments is probably something like $30 per American. If tourism dropped about 5%, this would hurt the US economy as much as the savings created.

 

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P.S: IIRC, Japan actually requires tourist to register with a touring company before being allowed into the country. The touring company makes sure you do your touring and leave. So, these measures are there. I have not seen USC complain about them in Japan and other countries. Why can't we enact such here. 

These measures are not there now. There were some temporary measures between June (when the border reopened to foreigners on tours) and Oct 2022 (when it reopened generally) due to covid. Right now, as an American citizen, you can buy a ticket to Japan today, arrive tomorrow and pass through immigration at the airport, no visa or registration needed. (You may need a return ticket, but they don't always check.) All you have to do is note your first night's address of stay. Some countries, like China, North Korea and those of the former Soviet Union, for example, require you to bring addresses of where you'll stay each night to get your visa (though you can sometimes change later), and then hotels or friends/family will report you to the local police every night so it's recorded where you are. I doubt that would be popular for many going to the US: the land of freedom making you register with a tour company and report your whereabouts every night.

 

You're welcome to have strong and passionate opinions on this, but lots of your "facts" supporting your opinions are just made up and not even close to reality. You seem to think overstays are the majority of visits, when it's actually in the low single digits, and that it causes massive financial harm, when it's actually at worst under 1% of government spending, and probably a tenth of that. It's definitely the case that there are issues, and there are ways to adjust the system. But given the scale of the problem compared to the scale of this solution, and how much of an outlier the US would be among developed countries, I think most would rather just keep what we have and work to make smaller changes (like mandatory E-Verify, which would likely severely cut overstays).

[Timona 4,207]

1 hour ago, SalishSea said:

Is this newish?  I went to Japan some years ago (2008ish), and it wasn't required then.

 

45 minutes ago, OldUser said:

Same. I think you can travel visa free to Japan so none of that applies.

 

Two years ago when I actually wanted to go to Japan and Schengen countries. I ended up not going, not because of the requirements but because the cost was going to be expensive. That's why when I mentioned that line, I used "IIRC." Haven't looked at it since.

I actually do travel often, probably every 2 months. Or less sometimes. 

 

Countries out there are taking stringent measures to make sure things are done right...OR atleast they're trying. 

 

Wanted to go to El Salvador and remote there for a while. That was 1 month ago. Took that out as the cost to apply for what I wanted was close to $1k and other stuff. Of course I wasn't going to overstay. What I mean is, countries are taking steps. I doubt there are USC overstays in El Salvador 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Timona

[Timona 4,207]

@telso I never said "a tourist's activity will be reported each night." I suggested ideas that I think can help reduce overstays. What are your thoughts on that because noone seems to be adding anything other than piece my points apart. 

 

And to add to your post, people without legal status doesn't just involve EWI but also legal entries that overstay. I have neighbors who take their kids to school for free (free bus ride + meals) as well as get some Texas chip or whatever Healthcare they got. They claim they don't work. So, everything for free. And they're overstays. They came on B-2. 

 

Again, my thoughts are that this can help deter overstays. I don't see it being a hindrance. This year, the notorious and corrupt Kenyan government has raised rates for tourism 3X the previous rate but the country is still full. I'm just waiting for them to tax us for Oxygen. As you can see, people come and leave with these measures in place. Or would you rather we arrest all overstays and fly them out/ put them in prison? 

 

P:S: As case study, read what Europe is doing to Honduras as of July this year. And there's one more Latin American country which has been now slapped with restrictions because of it's citizens abusing European system. I forgot. Will remember it soon.

 

Additionally, those who have $$ eg those Disney goers, rarely overstay. Have you seen any of those rich Chinese overtstaying after giving birth or going to Disney? They have other places they're going to next month. So, yes, those with clear intentions will come and leave. My measure was to help curb those who "suddenly changed their mind after passing CBP and decided to divorce their partners back home the next day."

[Dashinka 24,488]

I like the idea of eliminating the option to adjust from a B2/ESTA.  Maybe eliminating the ESTA altogether or at least for countries where overstays are rampant.

[Bob in Boston 701]

35 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

I like the idea of eliminating the option to adjust from a B2/ESTA.  Maybe eliminating the ESTA altogether or at least for countries where overstays are rampant.

I think this would be the most effective way to stop a lot of overstays on B2/ESTA. another way for the ones that just want to work make it a Crime to work or not leave on time and issue a federal warrant. Keep that crime out of immigration court. They cant adjust with a blemished criminal record.

[mam521 2,062]

17 hours ago, Timona said:

@Boiler I missed to cover that. 

 

In that case, your guarantor will be the sherrif at your first entry location. You pay $100 processing fee. You go through your journey and on your way out, regardless of exit location, report the closest sheriff for it to be updated and to CBP at the airport. 

 

Nobody will wanna mess around with skipping leaving the country yet their information/ bounty hunter is the sherrif. 

Sherriff's are elected positions.  Probably not as effective as one might think.  

 

11 hours ago, SalishSea said:

Is this newish?  I went to Japan some years ago (2008ish), and it wasn't required then.

I was there in 2015 and again this past May and nope, didn't require anything special.  

 

The tourism industry brings in enough money that there is a bill being considered to allow Canadian snowbirds the opportunity to spend more than 183 days in the US without an overstay.  If anything, that's paving the way to further abuse than it's already abused.  I realize Canada is kind of a blurred line but still...

 

Having looked at it in a bit more detail, pivoting US immigration from family based to merit based criterion would definitely change things up.  Not allowing to adjust would also help.  Clamping down on potential immigrants who use another country as a gateway to the US would help.  

[JeanneAdil 6,491]

there is no guarantor for tourist visa / the person must prove he will return not any USC

and ICE has over 11,040,000 illegals to investigate 

We already have enough rules that are unenforceable /laws are no good if enforcement is impossible 

 

I agree with those that say "can not come on work,  tourist or student visa and AOS to stay"

 

but if u think your idea is worthy,  send a letter of proposal to your Congressman as Congress makes the laws

[RamonGomez 271]

How is abolishing non-immigrant AOS going to solve the problem. Per the DHS, about 11% of "overstays" adjust status. That includes students on F1 visas that studied here for 4 years and met someone. So B2/ESTA adjustments represent a small proportion of overstays (which are perfectly legal BTW if the guidelines are followed). This is based on actual data not anti-B2-AOS emotions.

[Boiler 45,467]

I thought we were talking about people who have no immediate route to adjust?

[Timona 4,207]

@JeanneAdil the reason why I said this is because if you think about it, people just do not overstay out of the blues. There's always a relative, already established, in the US or friend who encourages them to overstay or/and provide housing. 

 

No genuine tourist is just going to come in and pitch tent, without knowing anyone here and find their way, renting, DL etc. So, by saying "guarantor" it was to deter the same family and friends from encouraging this behavior. Trust me, it's always a family member or friend encouraging others to overstay. So, if the same people are asked to guarantee and they know the risks, they wouldn't be encouraging anyone anymore.

 

One of my neighbor's mom was at the DPS on her first sunrise day in US. Daughter had already scheduled appointment well in advance for her to get DL/ID. As you know, DL/ID will be issued for duration of stay. Guess whos overstaying now and has Texas DL/ ID?? See what I mean? There's always someone encouraging this behavior. Funny thing, daughter is an overstay too, and is currently looking for USC to marry. How do I know about the DL? Posted online for everyone to see.

 

Daughter overstayed because some relative offered her harbor until "she overstayed her welcome period" and was told to look for her own place (that relative was happy to encourage overstay but won't cater for her long time because it was probably hurting his own $$ and his wife's immigration process). As you see, when it starts hurting them (the encouragers) they wash their hands and throw that responsibility to the government. The lady is now getting free EVERYTHING from the government. You and I are paying for this. 

 

Anyway, after being thrown out, that's how I met her (she actually told me she was thrown out). So as you can see, it's a trickle down effect....someone already here, encouraging this behavior because they know they won't be held responsible. 

 

P:S: Just remembered I met another overstay who was staying with her sister until they got in a fight and sister threw her out. She had nowhere to go and was crying and couch surfing. So, as you see:

(1) there's always an encourager.

(2) everything is rosy with the encourager until it's not.

(3) alone, the likelihood of overstayaing is less as you don't know yourself way around. 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Timona

[Timona 4,207]

@RamonGomezyou may wanna hang around VJ for a while. You'll notice a lot of B-2 come for a "conference" and next thing you hear, they didn't even go to the conference and are married to USC 1 week after entry. Ooo and they randomly met too

[OldUser 6,633]

16 minutes ago, Timona said:

(1) there's always an encourager.

(2) everything is rosy with the encourager until it's not.

(3) alone, the likelihood of overstayaing is less as you don't know yourself way around. 

There's something in it. Should we coin the term "Immigration Narcissism?"

"Overstay enablers", "baiting" to create a WAVA case, narcissists demanding to expedite their overstay AOS case without a real reason, people feeling entitled to B1/B2...

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by OldUser